Biomass

Traditionally, biomass has been used in four ways:

 1. For industrial purposes (shelter, building materials, furniture, utensils, etc)

 2. Burning (for domestic energy use such as heating, lighting and cooking, and for land clearance) 

 3. Conservation (left on land or added to soil as compost, to enrich soil and biodiversity, avoid erosion, etc.) 

 4. For food (including livestock feed, while using fertilizers and with waste dumped in landfills or sea)

In the light of rising costs of fossil fuel and climate change concerns, other uses are considered, specifically: 

 5. Low-footprint food (reduced meat and reduced use of chemical fertilizers, with waste processed)

 6. Commercial combustion in power plants, furnaces, kilns, ovens and internal combustion engines

 7. Burial 

 8. BECCS (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture & Storage)

 9. Biochar (Pyrolysis resulting in biochar, syngas and bio-oils)

10. Biochar + BECCS (Biochar + Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture & Storage)

Table 1. Comparison of methods to process biomass (Energy and Carbon)

	Combustion	Burial	BECCS	Biochar	Biochar + BECCS
Energy - year 0	1.0	-0.1	0.8	0.5	0.5
Carbon - year 0	-0.1	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.9
Energy - out years				0.4	0.4
Carbon - out years				0.5	0.5
Total	0.9	0.9	1.6	1.9	2.3

Above table by Ron Larsen, from this message, shows five methods to process biomass, rated (with 1.0 being the highest score) for their ability to supply energy and for their ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere.  

Above table shows that each way to process biomass waste has advantages and disadvantages:

 6. Combustion may seem attractive for its supply of energy, while having negative impact due to emissions 

 7. Burial can minimize emissions, but it doesn't provide energy, in fact it costs energy

 8. BECCS can score high on immediate energy supply as well as on avoiding carbon emissions

 9. Biochar scores well regarding immediate energy supply and emissions, with additional future benefits

10. Biochar + BECCS has all the benefits of biochar, while also capturing and storing pyrolysis emissions

The table below also incorporates above-mentioned traditional use of biomass, while using a wider footprint, i.e. with scores not only reflecting the ability of the method to remove carbon from the atmosphere, but also looking at emissions other than carbon.

Table 2. Comparison of ten uses of biomass (Energy and Footprint)

	Energy - year 0	Footprint - year 0	Energy - out years	Footprint - out years	Total
Industrial	-0.1	0.1			0.0
Burning	1.0	-1.0			0.0
Conservation		-0.2			-0.2
Food		-0.3			-0.3
Low-footprint food					0.0
Combustion	1.0	-0.1			0.9
Burial	-0.1	1.0			0.9
BECCS	0.8	0.8			1.6
Biochar	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.5	1.9
Biochar +BECCS	0.5	0.9	0.4	0.5	2.3

Biochar gets its positive "out years" scores for increasing vegetation growth over time, as it improves soil's water and nutrients retention, while also reducing the need for chemical fertilizers. 

These qualities of biochar are also helpful in efforts to bring vegetation into the desert by means of desalinated water, as proposed by a number of scientists. A study by Leonard Ornstein, a cell biologist at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, and climate modelers David Rind and Igor Aleinov of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, all based in New York City, concludes that it's worth while to do so.

They envision building desalination plants to pump seawater from oceans to inland desert areas using pumps, pipes, canals and aqueducts. The idea is that this would result in vegetation, with the tree cover also bringing more rain -- about 700 to 1200 millimeters per year -- and clouds, which would also help reflect sunlight back into space.

This would not only make these deserts more livable and productive, it would also cool areas, in some cases by up to 8°C .

Importantly, vegetation in the deserts could draw some 8 billion tons of carbon a year from the atmosphere -- nearly as much as people now emit by burning fossil fuels and forests. As forests matured, they could continue taking up this much carbon for decades.

The researchers estimate that building, running, and maintaining reverse-osmosis plants for desalination and the irrigation equipment will cost some $2 trillion per year.

Links
Forest a Desert, Cool the World - ScienceNow Daily News
Ornstein et al. 2009 in press - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Animations of 10-year average precipitation anomalies - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Irrigated afforestation of the Sahara and Australian Outback to end global warming - Springerlink
Sahara Forest Project
Green machine takes root in Jordan
Afforestation - bringing life into the desert - Sam Carana
Vortex Towers could vegetate deserts - Sam Carana
Biochar - Sam Carana

How would you allocate US$10 million per year to most reduce climate risk?

Imagine that you had a budget of $10 million per year and that you should maximize the amount of climate risk reduction obtainable with that $10 million, what would you allocate it to and why?

Given the scary situation in the Arctic, I would apportion parts of the $10 million to methods that promise immediate results:

1. R&D and testing of SRM methods such as surface brightening and marine cloud brightening.
2. R&D and testing of ways to ignite or break down methane from the sky, i.e. from airplanes or satellites. Laser beams spring to mind. Another technology that could be looked at further is to focus short, amplified pulses of light on water vapor, hydrogen peroxide or ozone, in efforts to produce more hydroxyl (OH) which could in turn oxidize as much methane as possible.
3. Building on the outcome of 2., equipping small aircraft with such technology, as well as autopilot software, GPS, LiPo batteries and with solar thin film mounted both on top of and underneath the wings.

example aircraft

At first, as a test, two such small aircraft could navigate on auto-pilot to the north of Canada and Alaska at the start of Spring on the Northern Hemisphere.

In subsequent years, numerous such planes could follow, also going to other parts of the Arctic. At the end of Summer, the planes could return home for a check-up and possible upgrade of the technology, to be launched again the next year.

There are many self-financed clubs where members build and fly remote controlled aircraft, as discussed in comments underneath this post.

Even a small financial incentive could help such clubs make a lot progress and give them a goal, while the publicity would also make people more aware of the problems we face in the Arctic.

Such aircraft could navigate the Arctic, guided by satellite detection of methane concentrations (image left) and by equipment carried onboard, such as small versions of methane analyzers.

Measuring from different vantage points can pinpoint the most suitable location to cross-aim multiple laser beams at, to minimize the energy needed to heat up methane to its point of auto-ignition (image below).

Methane can be ignited where it is present in concentrations of between 5% and 15%. In concentrations of around 9%, methane could be ignited with as little as 0.3 mj of energy (see image, adapted from Zabetakis).

At well over 500 degrees Celsius, methane's minimum auto-ignition temperature is rather high. Other volatile hydrocarbons in the vicinity may ignite at lower temperatures (with less energy), in turn igniting the methane.



Sam Carana

For further background on the above, also see:
http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/04/runaway-global-warming.html
and
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering/browse_thread/thread/5eaf812314dced8c

Call for action

As a result of emissions of pollutants around the world, massive amounts of greenhouse gases are threatening to be released in the Arctic. This calls for action. In addition to long-term measures to mitigate climate change and remove pollutants from oceans and atmosphere, geoengineering in the Arctic should now be included in our efforts to avoid catastrophe.

Undersigned:

Sam Carana, editor of Geo-engineering.blogspot.com

Comments and further signatories are welcome.

Geo-engineering.blogspot.com Creative Commons License

Please spread this call for action widely, adding CC and link as footer underneath.

Subscribe to Solar Radiation Geo-Engineering Visit this group Email:

 

Runaway Global Warming

1. Methane releases in the Arctic

On June 15, 2011, the research vessel Polarstern (Wikipedia photo right) of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research will set off on its 26th arctic expedition.

According to the press release, scientists onboard the vessel plan to take seafloor samples from a marine area in which fishery echosounders recently detected numerous gas flares. They indicate that probably enormous quantities of methane are released from the seafloor at water depths of around 400 metres west of Svalbard.

Scientists have been researching the potential for methane releases in the Arctic for years. One of the dangers with climate change is that hydrates could become destabilized, causing huge amounts of methane to be released, in turn accelerating warming.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a region about 2,000,000 km² large that, due to polar amplification of global warming, can now be 10°C or 18°F warmer than it was from 1951 to 1980 (NASA image below).

Shakhova and Semiletov (2010) conclude that this ESAS region should be considered the most potential in terms of possible climate change caused by abrupt release of methane.

A press release accompanying a widely-reported study published in Science in 2010 explains that in the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply doesn't have enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with the sheer amount of methane in the region, could add a previously uncalculated variable to climate models.

"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times," Shakhova warns.

A 2008 paper by Shakhova et al. considered release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. Such a release could multiply the atmospheric methane burden by up to 11 times.

2. Abrupt merthane releases

As permafrost melts, algae and bacteria can flourish, contributing methane through their metabolism. Even more worrying, collapse of methane hydrates can cause abrupt release of huge amounts of methane.

Rising temperatures can cause hydrates to collapse, resulting in abrupt release of huge amounts of methane. Anomolies of up to 12.5°C show up on the image below with average temperatures for November 2010.

 

For individual days and locations, the anomaly can be even more striking. On January 6, 2011, the minimum temperature in Coral Harbour, located at the northwest corner of Hudson Bay in the province of Nunavut, Canada, was –3.7°C (25.3°F), i.e. 30°C (54°F) above average.

How high can temperatures rise in the Arctic? Below are projections based on above NASA data. 



Methane hydrates are held together by high pressure and low temperatures. They can collapse when the temperature rises, or when pressure falls, e.g. when hydrates are disturbed by earthquakes and associated tsunamis, shock-waves and land-slides. Thermal expansion of land and water can put additional stress on areas prone to seismic activity. Furthermore, as ice and glaciers in the mountains melt away, a substantial weight is disappearing, changing pressures that act on the Earth's crust and contribute to seismic activity. This link was confirmed in several scientific studies, such as this one dating back to 2003. Drilling and fracking in these hydrates could make things worse and trigger abrupt releases of huge amounts of methane.

Collapse of a single hydrate can accelerate local warming, in turn causing further hydrates to similarly start adding large amounts of methane to the atmosphere, as further described below.

3. Oxygen depletion

At the moment, methane releases from undersea sediments may still become oxidized in the water. However, a two-part study by Berkeley Lab and Los Alamos National Laboratory shows that, as global temperature increases and oceans warm, methane releases from clathrates would over time cause depletion of oxygen, nutrients, and trace metals needed by methane-eating microbes, resulting in ever more methane escaping into the air unchanged, to further accelerate climate change. 

 
4. Hydroxyl depletion in the air

To make matters even more catastrophic, high methane concentrations will result in an absence of enough hydroxyl in the air for all this methane to be oxidized. A 2009 study by Drew Shindell found that increases in global methane emissions did cause a 26% hydroxyl decrease. Because of this, methane now persists longer in the atmosphere, before getting transformed into the less potent carbon dioxide.

A Centre for Atmospheric Science study suggests that sea ice loss may amplify permafrost warming, with an ice-free Arctic featuring a decrease in hydroxyl of up to 60% and an increase of tropospheric ozone (another greenhouse gas) of up to 60% over the Arctic. This lack of hydroxyl means that methane will persist in the atmosphere for longer at its high global warming potency.

5. Local concentration of methane

Earth has 510,072,000 km2 of surface, or more than 255 times that of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Initial concentration of that much methane in the Arctic makes things even worse. While methane can spread out quickly, it will initially be concentrated where it is released. A major methane release in the high Arctic would take 15-40 years to spread to the South Pole. This methane will allow less heat from sunlight in summer to escape into space, while the sun doesn't set. This could therefore cause summer temperatures to rise dramatically in the Arctic, in turn causing further melting and more warming than we're already witnessing now.

6. Methane's high initial Global Warming Potential

Particularly worrying about methane is its high global warming potential, which can be made worse due to the above points, i.e. lack of oxygen in water, resulting in ever less methane oxidation in water, hydroxyl depletion in the air and local concentration of methane. All this may increase methane's global warming potential. 

In its first five years, methane is at least 100 times as potent as carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas (above image below, from a study by Dessus). Abrupt releases of 15 Gt (or Pg) of methane would result in a burden of 20 Gt of methane (since there already is about 5 Gt in the atmosphere). Applying a global warming potential of 100 times carbon dioxide would give this 20 Gt of methane an initial greenhouse effect equivalent to 2000 Pg of carbon dioxide.

By comparison, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose from 288 ppmv in 1850 to 369.5 ppmv in 2000, for an increase of 81.5 ppmv, or 174 PgC. What makes things even worse is that this 174 PgC was spread out over the globe, whereas methane from such abrupt releases in the Arctic would - at least initially - be concentrated in a relatively small area.

Extension of methane's lifetime further amplifies its greenhouse effect, especially for releases that are two or three times as large as current releases.

The graph on the right, based on data by Isaksen et al. (2011), shows how methane's lifetime extends as more methane is released.

The GWP for methane typically includes indirect effects of tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric water vapor production. The study by Isaksen et al. shows (image below) that a scenario of 7 times current methane levels (image below,medium light colors) would correspond with a radiative forcing of 3.6 W/m^-2. 

Such an increase in methane would thus add more than double the entire current net anthropogenic warming, effectively tripling the effect of all emissions added by people since the industrial revolution (for comparison, see the IPCC AR4 SPM and Wikipedia image below).

An addition of less than 30 Pg of methane could create such a scenario (i.e. of 7x the methane we're used to having in the atmosphere) and this would extend methane's lifetime to some 18 years, so such a burden will not go away quickly. The situation is even worse when releases take place abruptly over a short period. A single submarine landslide can release 5 Pg of methane, which can double the methane currently in the atmosphere when this occurs in shallow waters, since such a huge release will saturate the water, so most methane will enter the atmosphere unchanged, to trigger further releases.

7. Runaway Global Warming

This kind of warming in the Arctic could result in ever more methane ending up in the atmosphere and remaining there for a longer period without getting oxidized. Initially, all this methane will be concentrated in the arctic, causing huge amplification of the greenhouse effect there in summer, heating up the sea and causing further depletion of oxygen (as algae start to bloom) and further accelerating the permafrost melt and thus causing further carbon to be released from permafrost and clathrates.

Such dramatic local warming is bound to trigger further melting of permafrost locally, resulting in further releases of methane. Massive amounts of methane are stored in the Arctic, much of it concentrated at high density in hydrates. One liter of hydrate can release up to 164 liters of methane. A rise in temperature could cause abrupt releases of huge amounts of methane from hydrates.

8. What can be done about it?

Once runaway global warming starts, it feeds on itself. While dramatic reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is imperative, that alone will not be able to stop runaway global warming.

Geoengineering methods could reflect some of the sunlight in the Arctic back into space, such as by distributing sulfur dioxide into the stratoshphere by jets, cannons or hoses, or by enhancing cloud albedo as proposed by Stephen Salter and John Latham (see image left).

Even halving the amount of sunlight may not be enough to reduce rapid warming in the region, if that would merely be like cutting methane's GWP in half. Moreover, it can take several years for warming to reach and penetrate hydrate sediments, as described by Nesbit, and once on its way, reducing surface temperature may not be able to reverse such a process quickly enough to avoid massive methane releases. In other words, the window of opportunity for solar reduction methods may already have closed.

Further methods include ways to ignite the methane using short, amplified and focused pulses of UV light from airplanes or satellites. UV light could also be used to produce more hydroxyl, in efforts to oxidize as much methane as possible.

Igniting or breaking down methane may also be possible using model airplanes, equipped with LiPo batteries and with solar thin film mounted both on top of and underneath the wings. Numerous such planes could navigate to the Arctic by autopilot in summer, when there are high concentrations of hydrogen peroxide and when the sun shines 24-hours a day. Flying figure-8 patterns with the wings under an angle could optimize capture of sunlight, keeping the planes in the air, while using surplus energy to power UV lights. Another methods could be to focus UV light on ozone and mix it with volatile hydrocarbons, in an effort to produce hydroxyls. At the end of summer, the planes could return home for a check-up and possible upgrade of the technology, to be launched again early summer the next year.

Such methods are further discussed at this geoengineering group.

Action Plan to deal with global warming and climate change

Goals:
1. Adapt and deal with symptoms (preparation, preservation, plantation, energy saving, etc)
2. Combat causes of global warming 
2.1. Long-term impact (cut CO₂ emissions and remove CO₂ from atmosphere and oceans) ^(C,D)
2.2. Short-term impact
2.2.1. Reflect more sunlight back into space ^(D)
2.2.2. Reduce pollutants other than CO₂
2.2.2.1. Reduce emissions of chemical gases such as HFC, PFC, SF_6,, halon, CFC and HCFC ^(A)
2.2.2.2. Reduce emissions of CH₄, N²O, BC, CO, NO_x and VOC ^(B,C,E)
2.2.2.3. Produce extra OH ^(D)

This can be best achieved through:

A.		Protocols (Kyoto, Montreal, etc), standards and deposits (refunded at collection) on products containing inorganic pollutants
		Fees on nitrogen fertilizers and livestock products (where farmed) to fund local application of biochar
C.		Fees on burning fuel (where burned) to fund clean local alternatives (incl. EVs, solar cookers, WWS energy)
D.		Geoengineering (adding lime to seawater and aerosols to the atmosphere, carbon air capture, using UV light to stimulate methane oxidation, cloud brightening, etc; for more see the geoengineering group)
E.		Organic waste handling standards (e.g. the UNEP-proposed ban of open field burning of agricultural waste)

Color Use:

Blue		Goals
Purple		Inorganic waste policies (cycle A)
Green		Land use and organic waste policies (cycles B & E)
Orange		Geoengineering & energy-related policies (cycles C & D)
——>		Feebate policies

        

Acronyms and Abbreviations
BC	black carbon (or soot)
CFC	chlorofluorocarbon
CH4	methane (or natural gas)
CO	carbon monoxide
CO2	carbon dioxide
EV	electric vehicle
HFC	hydrofluorocarbon also known as freon, with the subclass HCFC
HCFC	hydrochlorofluorocarbon
H2O2	HOOH or hydrogen peroxide
NO	nitrogen monoxide (commonly known as nitric oxide)
NO2	nitrogen dioxide
NOX	nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2, which cause O3, smog and acid rain)
N2O	nitrous oxide
O3	ozone
OH	hydroxyl
PFC	perfluorocarbon
SF6	sulphur hexafluoride
UNEP	United Nations Environment Programme
VOC	volatile organic compound include CFCs, styrene, limonene and formaldehyde
WWS	WWS energy or Wind, Water and Solar Energy (water includes hydro, wave, tidal and geothermal)

Related Posts

Goals
Ten Dangers of Global Warming
America can win the clean energy race

A. Protocols, standards and deposit programs
A national bottle recycling bill
Green Refrigerators and Air Conditioners

B. Fees on nitrogen fertilizers and livestock products, funding biochar
Biochar
Afforestation - bringing life into the deserts
Save the Rainforest
Fees on Livestock to fund Biochar

C. Fees on burning fuel, funding clean local energy programs
Electric Vehicles - Frequently Asked Questions
SuperB Grid

D. Geoengineering
The Threat of Methane Release from Permafrost and Clathrates
Funding of Carbon Air Capture
Open letter on Arctic sea ice loss

E. Organic waste handling standards
Algae Bags

——>		Feebate policies

Feebates


Further reading
Posts at Gather

Global Warming Action Plan

All nations should commit to effective action to deal with climate change. Nations should each be able to decide for themselves how to do this, provided they each meet agreed targets independently and genuinely (i.e. without buying or fabricating offsets or credits, domestically or abroad). Where necessary, border adjustments can help ensure that commitments are indeed met. Some policies may aim to reduce emissions in one area, while causing emissions elsewhere. As an example, biofuel may reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in transport, while increasing agricultural emissions, reducing forests and diverting crop, water and energy from better use. It is important for nations to each achieve results on each of the following points, without achievements in one area being counterproductive elsewhere. It is therefore recommended to take an approach that seeks results on each of the following points.

  Part 1. Reduce oceanic and atmospheric CO₂

Target: Ensure that atmospheric CO₂ levels do not exceed 400 ppm over the next few decades, while aiming for a longer term target of 350 ppm. James Hansen, NASA's top climate scientist, says in Target CO₂: Where Should Humanity Aim? that atmospheric CO₂ should be reduced to 350 ppm. To achieve this target, several policies will need to work in parallel with each other. 

  1.1. Dramatic cuts in CO₂ emissions In many cases, dramatic cuts in CO₂ emissions can be achieved merely by electrifying transport and shifting to generation of energy by clean facilities such as solar panels and wind turbines. Each nation should aim to reduce their CO₂ emissions by a minimum of 8% per year over the next ten years, based on their 2009 emissions, and by 80% by 2020. 

  1.2. Carbon must also be actively removed from the atmosphere and the oceans A study at the University of Calgary concludes that, even if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO₂ in the atmosphere, the West Antarctic ice sheet will still eventually collapse (by the year 3000), causing a global sea level rise of at least four meters. This means that - apart from reducing emissions - there should be additional efforts to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and the oceans, in order to get CO₂ down to levels as pictured on the above graph. Carbon is naturally removed from the atmosphere and the oceans by vegetation, so it makes sense to protect forests and encourage their growth. There are ways to reduce ocean acidification, such as by adding lime to seawater, as discussed at other posts of this geoengineering blog and at this geoengineering group. Carbon capture from ambient air and pyrolysis of surplus biomass with biochar burial are some of the most promising methods to further remove carbon from the atmosphere. Biochar can also help with afforestation and prevent deforestation and land degradation. Funding of carbon air capture could be raised through fees on jet fuel. All nations should commit to such initiatives — care should be taken that emission reductions are not substituted by carbon removal or vice versa. 

  Part 2. Short-term action 

The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror, reflecting sunlight back into space and thus keeping Earth relatively cool, as discussed in this open letter. If this sunlight instead gets absorbed at higher latitudes, then feedback effects will take place that result in much higher temperatures, in a process sometimes referred to as Arctic amplification of global warming. The IPCC didn't take such feedback into account in AR4. A study that used 2007/2008 data as starting point predicts a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037, some predict an even quicker demise. A study by by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Jeffrey Kiehl found that carbon dioxide may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models of global climate. Melting of ice sheets, for example, leads to additional heating because exposed dark surfaces of land or water absorb more heat than ice sheets. Albedo change is only one of a number of feedback processes. A rapid rise of Arctic temperatures could lead to wildfires and the release of huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane that are now stored in peat, permafrost and clathrates, which constitutes further feedback that could cause a runaway greenhouse effect. Heat produced by decomposition of organic matter is yet another feedback that leads to even deeper melting.    

  2.1. Reduce methane and nitrogen oxide emissions Reductions in the emissions of methane and nitrogen oxide can be achieved by a change in diet, improved waste handling and better land use. Effective policies such as feebates can impose fees on nitrogen fertilizers and livestock products, while using the revenues to fund pyrolysis of organic waste. 

  2.2. Emissions of other pollutants than conventional greenhouse gases should also be reduced Both the Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC have focused much on reducing CO₂ emissions, as well as other conventional greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrogen oxide. Melting in the Arctic carries the risk of huge additional emissions from peat, permafrost and clathrates, which calls for more immediate mitigation action. All nations should therefore commit to short-term mitigation — long-term mitigation efforts should not be substituted by short-term mitigation or vice versa. As this NASA study points out, for more effective short-term impact, drastic cuts should also be made in other pollutants, such ozone, soot and carbon monoxide. This is further illustrated by the image on the right that shows what causes most radiative forcing (W/m²) when taking into account all pollutants over a 20-year period, from a study published in Science. Reducing short-lived pollutants could significantly reduce warming above the Arctic Circle, finds a study published in Journal of Geophysical Research. A relatively cheap way to achieve such cuts is by encouraging the use of solar cookers and rechargeable batteries to power LED lights. Many types of equipment and appliances can also be powered this way, even when batteries are recharged by hand cranking or pedaling. Electrification of road transport is a crucial part of short-term action, as illustrated by the image, while generation of energy from clean facilities such as solar panels and wind turbines (as also discussed under part 1.1.) will further contribute to reductions in short-lived pollutants. Furthermore, reductions in short-lived pollutants can be achieved by preservation of forests, which justifies financial assistance by rich countries. As said, such assistance should not be used by rich nations as a substitute for domestic action — action is also required domestically by each nation, on all points. The desired shifts can often best be accomplished locally by budget-neutral feebates, i.e. fees on local sales of fuel, engines and ovens, each time funding the better local products, as illustrated by the image below. 

  2.3. Furthermore, consider ways to reflect more solar radiation back into space Discussions of ways to reflect solar radiation can be found at other posts of this geoengineering blog and furthermore at this geoengineering group. 

  Part 3. Adaptation 

 Look at policies that can help people, flora and fauna adapt to climate change. Rich nations are urged to give financial assistance to poorer nations, as well as to facilitate technology transfer, including by preventing that intellectual property protection acts as a barrier to such transfer. 

  3.1. Prepare for extreme weather events Look at safety issues from the perspective of a changed world. Prepare for hailstorms, heavy flooding, severe droughts, wildfires, etc., and grow food that fits such weather patterns best. 

  3.2. Preserve biodiversity Protection of rain forests is well covered in the media. Biodiversity can be further preserved by means of seed banks, parks and wildlife corridors. 

  3.3. Vegetate Fresh water supply and food security require extensive planning, such as selection of best crop. Build facilities for desalination both for fresh water in cities and to irrigate and vegetate deserts and other areas with little vegetation.

image from: Towards a sustainable Economy Leading global warming experts are invited to contribute comments and thoughts as to what constitutes an effective global warming action plan

2011 starts with lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record

The year 2010 was the warmest year on record, as confirmed by the WMO and as illustrated by the NOAA graph below.

This is the more dramatic given that we’re in the middle of a strong La Niña, which pushes temperatures down, while we’ve been in “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.” NOAA has meanwhile published the data for 2010. A chart based on NOAA data is added below, with standard polynomial trendline added.

As the NASA map below shows, temperature anomalies are especially prominent at higher latitudes, close to the Arctic. Arctic sea ice cover in December 2010 was the lowest on record for the month, said the WMO, adding that sea ice around the northern polar region shrank to an average monthly extent of 12 million square kilometres, 1.35 million square kilometres below the 1979 to 2000 December average. Furthermore, 2011 has started with the lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record for this time of the year, as shown on the International Arctic Research Center graph below.

On the NSIDC graph below, monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2010 shows a decline of 11.5% per decade.

The NSIDC image below shows that, at the end of the summer 2010, under 15% of the ice remaining in the Arctic was more than two years old, compared to 50 to 60% during the 1980s. There is virtually none of the oldest (at least five years old) ice remaining in the Arctic (less than 60,000 square kilometers [23,000 square miles] compared to 2 million square kilometers [722,000 square miles] during the 1980s).

Why is all this so important? The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror, reflecting sunlight back into space and thus keeping Earth relatively cool, as discussed in this open letter. If this sunlight instead gets absorbed at higher latitudes, then feedback effects will take place that result in much higher temperatures, in a process sometimes referred to as Arctic amplification of global warming.

Above image is from a recent study, which found that 2010 set a record for surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet. The study warns that surface melt and albedo are intimately linked: as melting increases, so does snow grain size, leading to a decrease in surface albedo which then fosters further melt. A recent study concludes that the rate of Arctic sea ice decline appears to be accelerating due to positive feedbacks between the ice, the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere. As Arctic temperatures rise, summer ice cover declines, more solar heat is absorbed by the ocean and additional ice melts. Warmer water may delay freezing in the fall, leading to thinner ice cover in winter and spring, making the sea ice more vulnerable to melting during the next summer.

Thin lines are raw data, bold lines are three-point running means…. (C) Summer temperatures at 50-m water depth (red)…. Gray bars mark averages until 1835 CE and 1890 to 2007 CE. Blue line is the normalized Atlantic Water core temperature (AWCT) record … from the Arctic Ocean (1895 to 2002; 6-year averages)…. (D) Summer temperatures (purple) [calculated with a different method]

The IPCC didn't take such feedbacks into account and didn't foresee a total September sea ice loss in the Arctic for this century. Many scientists have repeatedly warned about this, as mentioned in this early 2009 post and this early 2010 post.

Projections that start with more recent data will take some of this feedback into account. Projections that start with 1992 and 1995 data, as in the pink and purple lines on above image, predict a total loss of September Arctic sea ice by 2040 or 2030. A study that used 2007/2008 data as starting point predicts a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037. Albedo change is only one of a number of feedback processes. A rapid rise of Arctic temperatures could lead to wildfires and the release of huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane that are now stored in peat, permafrost and clathrates, which constitutes further feedback that could cause a runaway greenhouse effect. Heat produced by decomposition of organic matter is yet another feedback that leads to even deeper melting.

The cumulative impact of multiple feedback processes and their interaction reinforces and accelerates Arctic warming, making downward curved projections more applicable than straight line extrapolation of earlier data. The pink dotted line on above chart shows a scenario that reflects the impact of a number of feedback processes. A study at the University of Calgary concludes that, even if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO2 in the atmosphere, we've already added enough carbon in the oceans to cause the West Antarctic ice sheet to eventually collapse (by the year 3000), resulting in a global sea level rise of at least four meters. In other words, we have already passed the tipping point for the West Antarctic ice sheet, and additional emissions could cause its collapse to occur much earlier. According to a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, ice and snow in the Northern Hemisphere are now reflecting on average 3.3 watts of solar energy per square meter back to space, a reduction of 0.45 watts per square meter between 1979 and 2008. "The rate of energy being absorbed by the Earth through cryosphere decline – instead of being reflected back to the atmosphere – is almost 30% of the rate of extra energy absorption due to CO2 increase between pre-industrial values and today," co-author Karen Shell said. A study by by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Jeffrey Kiehl found that carbon dioxide may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models of global climate. Melting of ice sheets, for example, leads to additional heating because exposed dark surfaces of land or water absorb more heat than ice sheets. Without changes, this new study warns, Earth's average temperature appears set to rise this century by 29°F (16°C), to levels never before experienced in human history. Such a rise would make that many areas on Earth would become too hot to live in. Humans and other mammals cannot survive prolonged exposure to temperatures exceeding 95°F (35°C), says Steven Sherwood. Heat stress would make many parts of the globe uninhabitable with global-mean warming of about 7°C (12.6°F). Warming of about 21°F (11-12°C) would make places where most people now live uninhabitable. I have made recommendations to deal with global warming for years, most recently in this Global Warming Action Plan. What do you think should be done?

More on Global Warming: Global Warming Action Plan Arctic Sea Ice Falls Below 2007 Low In case you were confused, global warming is real! The Threat of Methane Release from Permafrost and Clathrates Global Warming - Red Alert! Ten Dangers of Global Warming

More on Geoengineering: Target 2020 Funding of Carbon Air Capture Space Hose Afforestation - bringing life into the deserts Biochar Towards a Sustainable Economy

Open letter on Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Open letter on Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back into space and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far faster than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted only three years ago ^[1]. After the record retreat in September 2007, many scientists revised their predictions for the date of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of century to beyond 2030. Only a few scientists predicted this event for the coming decade, and they were ridiculed.

In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea ice extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close to a new record ^[2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there has been a very sharp decline in ice volume ^[3], which is very worrying.

The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost to release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards, which could lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt climate change. All this could become apparent if the sea ice retreats further than ever before this summer. We could be approaching a point of no return unless emergency action is taken.

We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning for us all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting global warming only by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. Even if emissions could be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere would continue to warm the planet for many decades.

Geoengineering now appears the only means to cool the Arctic quickly enough. A geoengineering project of the intensity of the Manhattan Project is urgently needed to guard against a global catastrophe. A multi-disciplinary team of scientists and engineers should be tasked and resourced to assess the evolving situation in the Arctic and implement a strategy of parallel research, development, preparation and deployment for different geoengineering techniques, such as to minimise the risk of failure.

Yours sincerely,

John Nissen, MA (Cantab) Natural Sciences, Director of Cloudworld Ltd

Email jn@cloudworld.co.uk for correspondence

Other signatories

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering, Edinburgh University

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group, Cambridge University

Gregory Benford, Professor of Physics, University of California, Irvine

John Gorman, MA (Cantab), Chartered Engineer MIMechE, MIET - UK

Colin John Baglin, B.Eng. M.Sc. C.Eng. M.I.Mech.E.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS, FIPC Co-Ordinator, Greenland Ice Stability Project

Dr. Brian Orr, PhD control engineering, j.mp/BrianOrr

Tom Barker, BSc PhD, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool

Nicholas Maxwell, Emeritus Reader, University College London; author - j.mp/NickMaxwell

Donald A. Grinde, Jr., Professor and Chair, Department of American Studies
SUNY at Buffalo - americanstudies.buffalo.edu

Sam Carana, contributor to Feebate.net and geo-engineering.blogspot.com

References
[1] Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Stroeve et al, May 2007
http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf
[2] NSIDC daily images - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado
Reference image below dated June 24, 2010. For updates, see current daily image.
[3] Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), University of Washington.
Original reference image dated May 30, 2010. Image below is dated June 18, 2010.

As NOAA reports that the May 2010 global temperature was the warmest on record, sea ice extent remains well below the 2007 record low, as shown on above NSIDC image.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), University of Washington.