A Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change

Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative

Climate change is strongly affecting the Arctic and the resulting changes to the polar vortex and jet stream are in turn contributing to extreme weather in many places, followed by crop loss at a huge scale.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in a September 6, 2012, forecast that continued deterioration of cereal crop prospects over the past two months, due to unfavourable weather conditions in a number of major producing regions, has led to a sharp cut in FAO’s world production forecast since the previous report in July.

The bad news continues: Based on the latest indications, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover fully the expected utilization in the 2012/13 marketing season, pointing to a larger drawdown of global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Among the major cereals, maize and wheat were the most affected by the worsening of weather conditions.

The image below is interactive at the original post and shows the FAO Food Price Index (Cereals), up to and including August 2012.

from: Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative

Apart from crop yield, extreme weather is also affecting soils in various ways. Sustained drought can cause soils to lose much of their vegetation, making them more exposed to erosion by wind, while the occasional storms, flooding and torrential rain further contribute to erosion. Higher areas, such as hills, will be particularly vulnerable, but even in valleys a lack of trees and excessive irrigation can cause the water table to rise, bringing salt to the surface.

Fish are also under threat, in part due to ocean acidification. Of the carbon dioxide we're releasing into the atmosphere, about a third is (still) being absorbed by the oceans. Dr. Richard Feely, from NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, explains that this has caused, over the last 200 years or so, about a 30% increase in the overall acidity of the oceans. This affects species that depend on a shell to survive. Studies by Baumann (2011) and Frommel (2011) indicate further that fish, in their egg and larval life stages, are seriously threatened by ocean acidification. This, in addition to warming seawater, overfishing, pollution and eutrification (dead zones), causes fish to lose habitat and is threatening major fish stock collapse.

Without action, this situation can only be expected to deteriorate further, while ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least tens of thousands of years. This means that, to save many marine species from extinction, geoengineering must be accepted as an essential part of the much-needed comprehensive plan of action.

Similarly, Arctic waters will continue to be exposed to warm water, causing further sea ice decline unless comprehensive action is taken that includes geoengineering methods to cool the Arctic. The threat that huge amounts of methane will be released from the warming Arctic seabed makes it imperative to prepare geo-engineering methods to respond to this threat and be ready for rapid deployment soon.

How to avert an intensifying food crisis

As extreme weather intensifies, the food crisis intensifies. Storms and floods do damage to crops and cause erosion of fertile topsoil, in turn causing further crop loss. Similarly, heatwaves, storms and wildfires do damage to crops and cause topsoil to be blown away, thus also causing erosion and further crop loss. Furthermore, they cause soot, dust and volitale organic compounds to settle on snow and ice, causing albdeo loss and further decline of snow and ice cover.

Extreme weather intensifies as the Arctic warms and the polar vortex and jet stream weaken, which is fueled by accelerated warming in the Arctic. There are at least ten feedbacks that contribute to further acceleration of warming in the Arctic and without action the situation looks set to spiral away into runaway global warming, as illustrated by the image below.

Diagram of Doom, with Comprehensive Plan of Action added  (credit: Sam Carana, October 9, 2012)

To avert an intensifying global food crisis, a comprehensive plan of action is needed, as also indicated on the image. Such a plan should be comprehensive and consider action in the Arctic such as wetland management, ice thickening and methane management (methane removal through decomposition, capture and possibly extraction).

A Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change

A Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change needs to include policies to achieve a sustainable economy, as well as adaptation policies.

Such a comprehensive plan is best endorsed globally, e.g. through an international agreement building on the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal Accord. At the same time, the specific policies are best decided and implemented locally, e.g. by insisting that each nation reduces its CO2 emissions by a set annual percentage, and additionally removes a set annual amount of CO2 from the atmosphere and the oceans, followed by sequestration, proportionally to its current emissions.

Policy goals are most effectively achieved when policies are implemented locally and independently, with separate policies each addressing a specific shift that is needed in order to reach agreed targets. Each nation can work out what policies best fit their circumstances, as long as they each independently achieve agreed targets.

Cuts in CO2 emissions of 80% by 2020 can be achieved by implementing local policies focusing on specific sectors (such as energy production, transport, land use, waste, forestry, buildings, etc).

As an example, each nation could add fees on jetfuel. Where an airplane lands that comes from a nation that has failed to add sufficient fees, the nation where the airplane lands could impose supplementary fees and use the revenues to support methods that capture CO2 directly from ambient air. Such supplementary fees should be allowed to be imposed under international trade rules.

Some policies will need to continue beyond 2020, in order to bring down levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to their pre-industrial levels this century, i.e. getting CO2 in the atmosphere back to 280ppm, CH4 back to 700ppb and N2O back to 270ppb. Policies can be very effective when focusing on local sectors such as agriculture and buildings, while also supporting geo-engineering methods such as biochar, enhanced weathering and direct capture of carbon from ambient air.

In addition to such policies to achieve a sustainable economy and adaptation policies, further geo-engineering methods will be needed to avoid runaway warming, as indicated in the blue area of the image below.

Arctic Methane Management

At the original post, some of the areas in these images can be clicked on, for examples or more background. The box for Additional Arctic Methane Management on above image is further worked out in the image below, which highlights the need for geo-engineering methods that focus on methane, a component of the plan that needs to be given far more attention. Again, support for such methods could be agreed to proportionally to each nation's current emissions.

Arctic - red alert!

Global Warming Action Plan

All nations should commit to effective action to deal with climate change. Nations should each be able to decide for themselves how to do this, provided they each meet agreed targets independently and genuinely (i.e. without buying or fabricating offsets or credits, domestically or abroad). Where necessary, border adjustments can help ensure that commitments are indeed met. Some policies may aim to reduce emissions in one area, while causing emissions elsewhere. As an example, biofuel may reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in transport, while increasing agricultural emissions, reducing forests and diverting crop, water and energy from better use. It is important for nations to each achieve results on each of the following points, without achievements in one area being counterproductive elsewhere. It is therefore recommended to take an approach that seeks results on each of the following points.

  Part 1. Reduce oceanic and atmospheric CO₂

Target: Ensure that atmospheric CO₂ levels do not exceed 400 ppm over the next few decades, while aiming for a longer term target of 350 ppm. James Hansen, NASA's top climate scientist, says in Target CO₂: Where Should Humanity Aim? that atmospheric CO₂ should be reduced to 350 ppm. To achieve this target, several policies will need to work in parallel with each other. 

  1.1. Dramatic cuts in CO₂ emissions In many cases, dramatic cuts in CO₂ emissions can be achieved merely by electrifying transport and shifting to generation of energy by clean facilities such as solar panels and wind turbines. Each nation should aim to reduce their CO₂ emissions by a minimum of 8% per year over the next ten years, based on their 2009 emissions, and by 80% by 2020. 

  1.2. Carbon must also be actively removed from the atmosphere and the oceans A study at the University of Calgary concludes that, even if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO₂ in the atmosphere, the West Antarctic ice sheet will still eventually collapse (by the year 3000), causing a global sea level rise of at least four meters. This means that - apart from reducing emissions - there should be additional efforts to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and the oceans, in order to get CO₂ down to levels as pictured on the above graph. Carbon is naturally removed from the atmosphere and the oceans by vegetation, so it makes sense to protect forests and encourage their growth. There are ways to reduce ocean acidification, such as by adding lime to seawater, as discussed at other posts of this geoengineering blog and at this geoengineering group. Carbon capture from ambient air and pyrolysis of surplus biomass with biochar burial are some of the most promising methods to further remove carbon from the atmosphere. Biochar can also help with afforestation and prevent deforestation and land degradation. Funding of carbon air capture could be raised through fees on jet fuel. All nations should commit to such initiatives — care should be taken that emission reductions are not substituted by carbon removal or vice versa. 

  Part 2. Short-term action 

The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror, reflecting sunlight back into space and thus keeping Earth relatively cool, as discussed in this open letter. If this sunlight instead gets absorbed at higher latitudes, then feedback effects will take place that result in much higher temperatures, in a process sometimes referred to as Arctic amplification of global warming. The IPCC didn't take such feedback into account in AR4. A study that used 2007/2008 data as starting point predicts a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037, some predict an even quicker demise. A study by by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Jeffrey Kiehl found that carbon dioxide may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models of global climate. Melting of ice sheets, for example, leads to additional heating because exposed dark surfaces of land or water absorb more heat than ice sheets. Albedo change is only one of a number of feedback processes. A rapid rise of Arctic temperatures could lead to wildfires and the release of huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane that are now stored in peat, permafrost and clathrates, which constitutes further feedback that could cause a runaway greenhouse effect. Heat produced by decomposition of organic matter is yet another feedback that leads to even deeper melting.    

  2.1. Reduce methane and nitrogen oxide emissions Reductions in the emissions of methane and nitrogen oxide can be achieved by a change in diet, improved waste handling and better land use. Effective policies such as feebates can impose fees on nitrogen fertilizers and livestock products, while using the revenues to fund pyrolysis of organic waste. 

  2.2. Emissions of other pollutants than conventional greenhouse gases should also be reduced Both the Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC have focused much on reducing CO₂ emissions, as well as other conventional greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrogen oxide. Melting in the Arctic carries the risk of huge additional emissions from peat, permafrost and clathrates, which calls for more immediate mitigation action. All nations should therefore commit to short-term mitigation — long-term mitigation efforts should not be substituted by short-term mitigation or vice versa. As this NASA study points out, for more effective short-term impact, drastic cuts should also be made in other pollutants, such ozone, soot and carbon monoxide. This is further illustrated by the image on the right that shows what causes most radiative forcing (W/m²) when taking into account all pollutants over a 20-year period, from a study published in Science. Reducing short-lived pollutants could significantly reduce warming above the Arctic Circle, finds a study published in Journal of Geophysical Research. A relatively cheap way to achieve such cuts is by encouraging the use of solar cookers and rechargeable batteries to power LED lights. Many types of equipment and appliances can also be powered this way, even when batteries are recharged by hand cranking or pedaling. Electrification of road transport is a crucial part of short-term action, as illustrated by the image, while generation of energy from clean facilities such as solar panels and wind turbines (as also discussed under part 1.1.) will further contribute to reductions in short-lived pollutants. Furthermore, reductions in short-lived pollutants can be achieved by preservation of forests, which justifies financial assistance by rich countries. As said, such assistance should not be used by rich nations as a substitute for domestic action — action is also required domestically by each nation, on all points. The desired shifts can often best be accomplished locally by budget-neutral feebates, i.e. fees on local sales of fuel, engines and ovens, each time funding the better local products, as illustrated by the image below. 

  2.3. Furthermore, consider ways to reflect more solar radiation back into space Discussions of ways to reflect solar radiation can be found at other posts of this geoengineering blog and furthermore at this geoengineering group. 

  Part 3. Adaptation 

 Look at policies that can help people, flora and fauna adapt to climate change. Rich nations are urged to give financial assistance to poorer nations, as well as to facilitate technology transfer, including by preventing that intellectual property protection acts as a barrier to such transfer. 

  3.1. Prepare for extreme weather events Look at safety issues from the perspective of a changed world. Prepare for hailstorms, heavy flooding, severe droughts, wildfires, etc., and grow food that fits such weather patterns best. 

  3.2. Preserve biodiversity Protection of rain forests is well covered in the media. Biodiversity can be further preserved by means of seed banks, parks and wildlife corridors. 

  3.3. Vegetate Fresh water supply and food security require extensive planning, such as selection of best crop. Build facilities for desalination both for fresh water in cities and to irrigate and vegetate deserts and other areas with little vegetation.

image from: Towards a sustainable Economy Leading global warming experts are invited to contribute comments and thoughts as to what constitutes an effective global warming action plan

Open letter on Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Open letter on Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back into space and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far faster than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted only three years ago ^[1]. After the record retreat in September 2007, many scientists revised their predictions for the date of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of century to beyond 2030. Only a few scientists predicted this event for the coming decade, and they were ridiculed.

In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea ice extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close to a new record ^[2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there has been a very sharp decline in ice volume ^[3], which is very worrying.

The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost to release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards, which could lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt climate change. All this could become apparent if the sea ice retreats further than ever before this summer. We could be approaching a point of no return unless emergency action is taken.

We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning for us all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting global warming only by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. Even if emissions could be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere would continue to warm the planet for many decades.

Geoengineering now appears the only means to cool the Arctic quickly enough. A geoengineering project of the intensity of the Manhattan Project is urgently needed to guard against a global catastrophe. A multi-disciplinary team of scientists and engineers should be tasked and resourced to assess the evolving situation in the Arctic and implement a strategy of parallel research, development, preparation and deployment for different geoengineering techniques, such as to minimise the risk of failure.

Yours sincerely,

John Nissen, MA (Cantab) Natural Sciences, Director of Cloudworld Ltd

Email jn@cloudworld.co.uk for correspondence

Other signatories

Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering, Edinburgh University

Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group, Cambridge University

Gregory Benford, Professor of Physics, University of California, Irvine

John Gorman, MA (Cantab), Chartered Engineer MIMechE, MIET - UK

Colin John Baglin, B.Eng. M.Sc. C.Eng. M.I.Mech.E.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS, FIPC Co-Ordinator, Greenland Ice Stability Project

Dr. Brian Orr, PhD control engineering, j.mp/BrianOrr

Tom Barker, BSc PhD, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool

Nicholas Maxwell, Emeritus Reader, University College London; author - j.mp/NickMaxwell

Donald A. Grinde, Jr., Professor and Chair, Department of American Studies
SUNY at Buffalo - americanstudies.buffalo.edu

Sam Carana, contributor to Feebate.net and geo-engineering.blogspot.com

References
[1] Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Stroeve et al, May 2007
http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf
[2] NSIDC daily images - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado
Reference image below dated June 24, 2010. For updates, see current daily image.
[3] Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), University of Washington.
Original reference image dated May 30, 2010. Image below is dated June 18, 2010.

As NOAA reports that the May 2010 global temperature was the warmest on record, sea ice extent remains well below the 2007 record low, as shown on above NSIDC image.

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), University of Washington.

Open letter to Dr Pachauri

Climate Congress, Copenhagen, 10-12 March, 2009 

Open letter to Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, IPCC chair

Dear Dr Pachauri,

The Climate Congress presents an important opportunity to present all facets of the current situation, explore the ramifications, and suggest appropriate actions. The aim must be, as far as possible, to address the threat of a disastrous multi-metre rise in sea level and catastrophic multi-degree rise in temperature – whenever they might occur.

We would like to suggest a rather simple division of the problem/solution domain:

Part A: Emissions reduction

About: Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Target: Achieve near-zero carbon economies throughout the world by end century.

Difficulties: International agreement, life-style changes, high cost.

Rationale: Long-term sustainability.


Part B : Carbon stock management

About: Removing CO2 from the atmosphere by various means.

Target: Reduce levels below 350 ppm over next three decades.

Difficulties: May involve change in agricultural practice, worldwide. Side-effects may be difficult to anticipate.

Rationale: Reduce CO2 climate forcing below its current level, halt ocean acidification and protect carbon sinks.


Part C : Heat transfer and radiation management

About: Mainly about albedo engineering and solar radiation management.

Priority target: Cool the Arctic sufficient to halt retreat of Arctic sea ice within three years.

Difficulties: Seen as tampering with the environment, and therefore intrinsically dangerous; but cost is low and side-effects should be manageable.

Rationale: Reduce risk of massive methane discharge and stabilise the Greenland ice sheet.

International focus has been almost entirely on Part A until recently, when it has been realised that: 

(1) it is proving extremely difficult to achieve reductions; 

(2) the current trend is towards IPCC’s worst case scenario; 

(3) lifetime of CO2 had been under-estimated – even if anthropogenic greenhouse gases could be stopped overnight, the existing gas levels will live on in the atmosphere for centuries, causing the global temperature to continue to rise many degrees; 

(4) global warming of more than 2 degrees could be disastrous; 

(5) tipping points could be reached much sooner than expected. It is generally recognised that the underlying primary cause of global warming is the excess of CO2 in the atmosphere. If emissions reduction can’t reduce it quickly enough, then we have to resort to some form of geoengineering – or more specifically carbon stock management – see Part B. 

Furthermore, ocean acidification is becoming dangerous, and this can only be tackled by removing CO2 from the atmosphere. So, within a decade or two, carbon stock management could become essential, and we should be doing large-scale experimentation now. 

But the actions of Part A and Part B cannot prevent tipping points driven by positive feedback on temperature. Emissions reduction and carbon stock management cannot produce a cooling effect – certainly not on the time-scales we are talking about. We have to resort to other kinds of geoengineering, hence Part C. 

As regards tipping points, our perception of the situation has changed fundamentally since the dramatic retreat of Arctic sea ice in September 2007. The IPCC had chosen to ignore potential tipping points, as being too difficult to model or lacking reliable data. 

But now some experts are talking about possible summer disappearance of sea ice within a decade [1], and this possibility is even mentioned in the introduction to Session 1 of the Congress [2]: “Sea ice is changing and the sea ice in the northern polar ocean has retreated in the last few years and might totally disintegrate during the next decade.” Sea ice disappearance will accelerate Arctic warming which could trigger the release of vast amounts of methane from permafrost (leading to many degrees of global warming) and/or destabilise the Greenland ice sheet (leading to many metres of sea level rise). 

There now appears no other possibility to save the Arctic sea ice than to cool the Arctic region, by reflecting more sunlight back into space. There are two prime candidates for this: stratospheric sulphate aerosols and marine cloud brightening [3]. The former involves the injection of a H2S or SO2 high in the stratosphere, where it reacts to form microscopic droplets of sulphuric acid which scatter sunlight efficiently. This mimics the effect of a volcano like Pinatubo, which cooled the planet for two years from its sulphur emissions into the stratosphere. The latter – the brightening of marine clouds – involves producing a very fine spray of sea water from ships which sail underneath low-lying cumulus clouds, such that some of the spray wafts upwards, brightening the clouds and reflecting light back into space. 

Modeling suggests that each of these cooling technologies should be effective, affordable, fast acting, easily reversible and reasonably safe. If we can save the Arctic sea ice, then we may be able to avoid other tipping points such as the methane release from permafrost. Such action buys time while we reduce CO2 levels and avoid other catastrophes such as from ocean acidification. On the other hand, if we do not act with the necessary urgency, we may soon find ourselves beyond the point of no return: doomed both to many metres of sea level rise and to spiraling temperatures, way above 6 degrees this century – temperatures for which the very survival of our civilization would be in question. 

- John Nissen Email: jn@cloudworld.co.uk for correspondence 

- Stephen Salter Professor of Engineering, University of Edinburgh John Latham http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/latham/ 

- Oliver Wingenter Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology 

- Peter Read Hon. Research Fellow, Massey University Centre for Energy Research 

- Andrew Lockley, London UK Former director of Friends of the Earth ENWI 

- John Gorman MA (Cantab), London, UK 

- Sam Carana, contributor to feebate.net sam.carana@gmail.com

References:

[1] Climate Safety report, which can be downloaded from: 

http://climatesafety.org/

[2] Climate Congress, Session 1, in: 

http://climatecongress.ku.dk/programme/sessions06.03.2009.pdf

[3] Solar Radiation Management: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management