tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7840467170044753342024-03-13T08:58:59.163-07:00Geo-engineeringGeo-engineering is the study and implementation of technical ways to change (and arguably improve) things like weather patterns, river paths, soils, climates and sea currents on Earth. Recently, geo-engineering has received special attention for efforts to combat global warming.Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-20498391883566450562015-05-20T02:04:00.001-07:002022-08-01T22:18:59.281-07:00Kelp Farming and Ice Dyking<div style="text-align: center;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; color: #6699cc; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px; text-align: center;">Aaron Franklin</td></tr>
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<i>Kelp farming and ice dyking for habitat enhancement </i><br />
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<i>and </i><i>carbon-negative fuels and chemical production.</i></div>
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<i><b>By Aaron Franklin</b></i><br />
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A purpose-built craft like this Ground effect plane / hovercraft triphibian concept could be ideal.<br />
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The laterally-rigid sideskirts with vertically-flexible surface-contouring ski bottoms would allow transitions between air, water, ice, snow, earth surfaces of all types and the waterscoop tail could directly hose the water onto the ice with foil effect to counter lateral reaction thrust. Snow making, firefighting, and ecology seeding also in its functionality.<br />
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At pumping of 10tons per second, 50m x 100m/s = 5000sqm, 10000kg/5000sqm = 2 kg per sqm per pass. About 2mm per pass.<br />
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If we assume conditions that will allow 2 mm to freeze in 30 seconds. then 4mm per minute = 240mm per hour = 5760mm (near 6m thick) per day could be made of 50m wide by 100m/s x 30s = 3km long of icedyke by a mobile spray vehicle at 100m/s.<br />
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3000m x 6m x 50m = 900 000 tons per day of ice making.<br />
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A fleet of 50 working for 100 days therefore could make 5000 x 900 000 = 45 000 000 000 tons or near 5 cubic kilometers of ice. </div>
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If we are looking at an average needed to ground them of say 30m thick, then 50m wide is cross section area of 1500 sqm.<br />
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5 000 000 000 cubic m / 1500 sqm = 3.33333 million meters or 3333 km.<br />
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A ball park figure of 1000kw vehicle power would seem adequate to do this.<br />
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Very likely a rope mesh reinforcement would need to be floated on the water and anchored in place to hold together the dyke that has been formed. Doing this work in polynyas seems the best way, then towing into position of sections to be anchored and further thickened.<br />
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If 100 such vehicles were used you've got near seven thousand km of icedyke which could be enough for such a layout as this:<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wCkJGFW5gP8/VVxK51AkgUI/AAAAAAAAQXo/1mCsnwMSEiA/s1600/Kelp-farm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="386" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wCkJGFW5gP8/VVxK51AkgUI/AAAAAAAAQXo/1mCsnwMSEiA/s640/Kelp-farm.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Kelp farming, by Aaron Franklin, on background image by <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract">Shakhova et al., 2010</a>. </i></td></tr>
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For methane plume hotspots to the surface, hexagonal tiles would need to be formed and towed into place, if they are too rich for ice to form inside the rings in situ.<br />
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Stationary pumping systems might have to high costs per area in most places with limits to small volumes per pump due to area feasible to distribute the water to and ice layup rates. Though in saying this, high cost is often seen as a benefit for commercial interests. They can make more money doing it the hard way.<br />
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The purposes of kelp farming in the less methane emissive areas is as follows:<br />
<ul>
<li>Biomass for biofuels and biochemicals of around 500 ton per hectare per year can be harvested.</li>
<li>The growing kelp oxygenates the water to support consumption of methane and river in-flux of organic carbon.</li>
<li>The artificial kelp forests provide habitat and food for a diverse and rich ecology with fisheries and abalone/ mussel/ crabs / lobster etc farming potential</li>
<li>Unlike micro algae, the kelp biomass is easily harvested, so it would not rot and cause oxygen depletion of the water at the end of summer.</li>
<li>Sedimentation rates and water clarity are vastly improved by the kelp forests, thereby improving albedo and enhancing natural carbon burial in sediments.</li>
<li>Simple and low cost infrastructure only is neccessary to process the kelp locally into liquids for low transport costs to refineries for further upgrading.</li>
<li>It would be easy to use the CO2 from an initial biomass pyrolysis to convert methane collected nearby to methanol for easy low cost transportation.</li>
</ul>
Combining these systems would allow zero carbon emission liquid fuels via the energy component of the fossil methane and biomass being used as hydrogen and the carbon turned into biochar and high performance bioglues and recyclable polymers, allowing further long-term carbon sequestration by wood, biofibre, etc., and component for construction materials, also replacing high carbon-emission steel, concrete etc.<br />
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-89670848776767059562015-04-26T01:00:00.003-07:002022-08-01T22:19:38.402-07:00Save the Arctic<br />
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<span id="docs-internal-guid-90c7f66d-f4b8-dcbf-8a9b-c07ba97cfbfc"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>by Renaud de Richter</b></span></span><br />
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<b>Links</b><br /><br />- This idea was proposed by Denis Bonnelle, <br />'Solar Chimney, water spraying Energy Tower, and linked renewable energy conversion devices: presentation, criticism and proposals', p120-125.<br />PhD thesis 9 July 2004, university Claude Bernard, Lyon, France, registration n°129-2004.<br /><a href="http://data.solar-tower.org.uk/thesis/2004-Denis-BONNELLE_Solar-chimneys_Energy-towers_etc.pdf">http://data.solar-tower.org.uk/thesis/2004-Denis-BONNELLE_Solar-chimneys_Energy-towers_etc.pdf</a><div>
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- For more ideas, see: <div>
Fighting global warming by climate engineering: Is the Earth radiation management and the solar radiation management any option for fighting climate change?<br />By Tingzhen Ming, Renaud de_Richter, Wei Liu and Sylvain Caillol<br /><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032113008460">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032113008460</a></div>
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-69847843127117819302014-08-15T06:04:00.002-07:002022-08-01T22:20:47.784-07:00Seven Ocean Fertilization Strategies<b>by William S. Clarke</b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Buoyant, long-lasting flakes can release nutrients slowly, avoiding nutrients waste and allowing balanced marine ecosystems to develop over a period of about one year. The flakes can be blown from ships’ holds to cover large ocean surfaces.</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption"><i>Global biosphere—the ocean's long-term average phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration between September 1997 and August 2000 combined with the SeaWiFS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index over land during July 2000.</i></td></tr>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>Seven different strategies have been identified that use these flakes.</b><br />
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<b>1.</b> Phosphate-rich, but iron- and silica-deficient areas of the global oceans south of 42° South, together with some Arctic and sub-Arctic waters, can be addressed with buoyant flakes carrying ultra-slow-release iron and silica minerals to generate albedo increase, marine biomass and carbon biosequestration.<br />
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<b>2.</b> The highly stratified and nutrient-impoverished seas of the Caribbean and many tropical waters may be addressed using flakes bearing a mix of nutrients, chief of which are phosphate wastes (from Florida, Morocco and Australia), iron, silica and trace elements. Whilst this provision should help to transport dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) somewhat deeper into the highly stratified sea by the oceanic carbon pump, its main functions will be to generate increased albedo (reflectiveness) of both the ocean surface and of the marine clouds above it; to generate additional marine biomass; and to make some contribution to reducing ocean acidification, ocean surface temperature and consequently hurricane strength.<br />
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<b>3.</b> Some favorable tropical locations, where there are frigid currents running beneath the surface, may use Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) pumping mechanisms to generate power, potable water and the uplifted, nutrient-rich waters needed to fertilize mariculture operations. <br />
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<b>4.</b> The temperature/nutrient/salinity stratified waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with their excessively-‐nutriated benthic waters (from the Mississippi) and often impoverished surface waters, together with other oceans where the needed nutrients can be found in deeper water, are probably best addressed by wave or wind powered pumping mechanisms. These bring nutrients to the nutrient-‐deficient surface where they can be used by phytoplankton and in cultivated macrophyta (kelp and sargassum) forests. The process also tends to cool the warm surface water by mixing it with cooler water from the depths and by increased solar reflection.<br />
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<b>5.</b> Fertilizing polar waters with buoyant flakes, that include in the fertilizer mix minerals containing tungsten, cobalt, nickel and molybdenum (Glass et al. 2013) plus possibly gypsum (calcium sulfate) and seed methanotrophs (methane eaters), could play a vital part in converting huge and potentially catastrophic methane emissions occurring there into less hazardous CO2 which may itself then be converted into biomass by fertilized phytoplankton. These trace elements, but the tungsten in particular, are necessary for the production of metalloenzymes that catalyze the anaerobic oxidation of methane. Other methanotrophs would oxidize more methane aerobically in the water column above the anaerobic sediments.<br />
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<b>6.</b> Temperate oceans will each need to be treated differentially, depending on the mix of the nutrient concentrations already in their water columns and what can be used there near the surface by phytoplankton and macrophyta.<br />
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<b>7.</b> Productive ocean areas, coral reefs, seagrass meadows, and most inshore waters should typically not be treated at all, except conceivably when there are seasonal or otherwise temporary nutrient deficiencies that might beneficially be offset by the use of nutritive flakes. In many ocean regions, different combinations of these methods will be optimal.<br />
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<b>Strategy 5. is described in more detail below.</b><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Biological Control of Arctic Methane Emissions</span></b><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Qx5x0eBWTI/U-38cftq68I/AAAAAAAAOTo/ygVQnfE5A14/s1600/63478693643869.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Qx5x0eBWTI/U-38cftq68I/AAAAAAAAOTo/ygVQnfE5A14/s1600/63478693643869.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Methane bubbles from: Sauter et al. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2006.01.041 </i></td></tr>
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As the Arctic Ocean seabed, tundra, and the frozen methane clathrates they contain warm, increasingly large clouds of methane bubbles have been observed ascending in pools and seawater. If these cannot be contained or converted, they are likely to cause catastrophic global warming within the expected lifetime of our children.<br />
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Reducing our carbon dioxide and methane emissions dramatically is no longer sufficient to avoid this from happening. Our two best chances are either to have the issuing methane captured and converted into something more benign, or to cool the Arctic quickly. Both appear to be daunting tasks. However, both may still be feasible. This paper focuses upon using biological means to convert the issuing methane into biomass. <br />
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Methanotrophic (methane eating) bacteria can do this using one of two metabolic pathways, aerobic or anaerobic. The aerobic route oxidises methane into methanol or formaldehyde that is then transformed into biomass. In the anaerobic route typically used by bacteria resident in ocean sediments, consortia of archaea and nitrite- or sulphate-reducing bacteria produce both biomass and carbon dioxide from methane (source: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methanotroph">Wikipedia ‘Methanotroph’</a>). Both routes use enzymes that contain essential metal atoms that are typically in short supply there. The metals include tungsten, copper, nickel, cobalt and molybdenum (<a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2013/12/methane-eating-microbes-need-trace-metal.html">Glass et al. 2013</a>). <br />
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It is proposed that there be modelling, and subsequent testing, to establish optimal parameters for buoyant flakes carrying slow-release minerals that provide a balanced ‘diet’ of these essential metals, to allow the methanotrophs to proliferate and consume most of the newly emitted methane, before it can cause excessive global warming. Where a targeted site does not contain sufficient sulphate for the sulphate-reducing bacteria, cheap and plentiful calcium sulphate (gypsum) may be added to the powdered mineral mix.<br />
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Biological solutions typically have three major advantages. First, they are a natural form of control. Second, they modulate themselves to the extent of the problem. And third, they are typically both economical and fast-acting.<br />
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It is surmised that methanotrophs cannot metabolise methane when it is in frozen form in clathrates. Similarly, the methanotrophs in water, sediment, or soil must be in intimate, and preferably prolonged, contact with their gaseous or dissolved methane food source in order for them to be able to metabolise it effectively. This is not the case when the methane has been given time to aggregate into large bubbles or to issue directly into the atmosphere via vents, fissures or eruptions. It is therefore important that the metals be sufficiently available to methanotrophs both continuously and along the entire and diverse pathways of their emission and pre-atmospheric movement. Hence, the minerals should preferably: permeate the entire water column (albeit at low concentration); be present in at least the upper layers of sediments and soils; coat the surfaces of fissures and vents; and lie on the sea ice, tundra or swamp surface, ready to be elevated to a commanding position with the water surface. The surface may be either that of the sea, or of puddles, ponds, lakes and streams that form from rainfall or from thawing ice and permafrost. <br />
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The minerals should also be able to be economically distributed to all these environments. Small, benign and buoyant flakes can do this best, as they are readily disseminated pneumatically from ship or plane, with acceptable evenness and cost, to the most inaccessible areas. As the flakes slowly release their mineral payloads into the water, dissolution, assimilation and mineral particle sinking take the needed enzymatic metals to where the methanotrophs are present and can metabolise them so that they can proliferate enough to consume the varying amounts of emitted methane. <br />
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The buoyant flakes may be formed from a suitable mixture of low-grade mineral powders and the powdered lignin ‘thermoplastic glue’ left over from the extraction of sugars from straw or woody waste that glues the mineral mix in layers, and with tiny voids, onto cereal husks. These three materials have typically been regarded as waste products, or ones of little or no commercial value – though new uses are being found for lignin. All can be regarded as renewable resources. All are available in more than sufficient quantity to fertilise the Arctic many times over. It is surmised that the flakes will last approximately a year on the ocean surface, and possibly much longer in soil and sediment. <br />
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Most of the nutrients from the flakes will presumably enter the biosphere, where they will typically recycle many times before becoming buried deep in sediment, along with the lignin. Of course, some of this newly laid down, organically-rich sediment will be re-metabolised into methane or carbon dioxide. However, these in turn will readily be converted back into biomass by the aforesaid processes. <br />
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The flakes disseminated over the Arctic Ocean may also incorporate other lacking nutrients necessary for the growth of phytoplankton, such as iron, silica and phosphate. These will have the additional benefit of cooling the Arctic by increasing its albedo (reflectiveness) by ocean surface and marine cloud brightening. The increase in phytoplankton concentrations may be necessary to ensure that any additional carbon dioxide resulting from predation upon the methanotrophs, or that from other causes of methane oxidation, is also converted into benign biomass.<br />
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For more details, contact Sev Clarke at the address below.<br />
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<i>Copyright © 2014 Winwick Business Solutions P/L. PO Box 16, Mt Macedon, VIC 3441, Australia. </i>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-49492434278130120952014-01-14T01:31:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:23:03.324-07:00Six commercially-viable ways to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and/or reduce CO2 emissions<br />
<b>by Roelof D Schuiling and Poppe L de Boer</b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Background</b></span><br />
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Almost all of the CO2 that has ever leaked out of the planet has been removed from the atmosphere and the ocean, and sustainably stored in rocks, mainly by weathering, and also in the later part of the Earth’s history by storage as organic carbon. During weathering, which is the reaction of rocks with CO2 and water, CO2 is first converted to bicarbonate solutions. In the ocean corals, shellfish, and plankton convert them to carbonate sediments, which form the ultimate sustainable storage of CO2 (Figure 1).<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 1. A Karst landscape in China is one of the many stores for CO2 of the world.</i></span></td></tr>
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<b>Six solutions</b><br />
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Six low-cost or financially self-supporting ways are described in which we can store large<br />
volumes of CO2 and/or significantly diminish CO2 emissions:<br />
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<ol><li><b>Nickel Farming: </b>A switch from nickel mining, ore dressing, and nickel recovery to nickel farming by the use of nickel hyperaccumulator plants. This switch will cut down CO2 emissions because it avoids the energy-intensive steps in the nickel cycle and enhances the weathering of olivine or serpentine which captures additional CO2.</li>
<li><b>Biodiesel from Diatoms: </b>Diatoms contain approximately 50% of lipids, which makes them an ideal starting material for the production of biodiesel. They grow fast, provided they have a source of silica. They do not suffer from drawbacks of land-grown biofuel crops. They do not occupy vast tracts of land that are urgently needed for food production, and they do not require vast amounts of scarce irrigation water and fertilizer. The use of biodiesel from diatoms will reduce the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.</li>
<li><b>Quenching Forest Fires:</b> Forest fires are the second largest emitter of CO2, after fossil fuels. It was demonstrated that quenching such fires with a slurry of serpentine powder is considerably more effective than quenching with water. This reduces the emissions of CO2 by the fires and the associated financial losses. The serpentine that was calcined by the fire reacts very fast with CO2 and water afterwards, thereby compensating part of the emitted CO2 during the fire. A better and quicker mastery over forest fires may also help to save lives.</li>
<li><b>Supergreen Energy: </b>If the heat that is released by the weathering of olivine is trapped, this would represent a huge alternative source of energy that additionally captures large volumes of CO2, hence the name supergreen energy. A basic scenario is described how this could be achieved.</li>
<li><b>Coastal Protection: </b>When olivine is used for coastal protection (breakwaters, artificial reefs, sand replenishment on beaches) this has a direct effect against ocean acidification. CO2 is absorbed as bicarbonate, and the pH of the surrounding waters rises.</li>
<li><b>Olivine in High-Energy Marine Environments:</b> Large areas of shallow seas are subjected to strong currents that can transport gravel. When olivine grit is spread on the sea floor, the grains are kept in motion and bump and rub against each other. This destroys reaction-limiting silica coatings on the grain surfaces and releases micronsized slivers that rapidly react with sea water. It is the most direct way to counter ocean acidification.</li>
</ol><br />
<b>1. Nickel Farming</b><br />
<br />
All mining operations have an impact on the environment. This also holds for nickel, independent of the type of ore, whether nickel laterite or nickel sulfide. Nickel laterites must be leached and nickel sulfides must be roasted and dissolved. These steps are energyintensive and polluting. These disadvantages can be reduced if part of the world nickel production is gradually replaced by a switch to nickel farming. A fairly large number of plant species from different families are known to exhibit the remarkable property that they very effectively extract nickel from nickel-rich soils and store it in their tissues (Figure 2). Soils on serpentinized peridotites often contain no more than 0.2% of nickel, but the ash of these plants may contain 10% or more of nickel, much richer than the richest nickel ores. If some NPK fertilizer is spread over nickel-rich soils and such plants are sown, these nickel hyperaccumulator plants can be harvested at the end of the growing season, and their nickel content can be recovered after ashing. Several of these plants are perennial, so they do not need to be sown every year.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JT_kLgHK5kM/UtT4-YUwquI/AAAAAAAAMf8/2uBvLpiwFhA/s1600/2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JT_kLgHK5kM/UtT4-YUwquI/AAAAAAAAMf8/2uBvLpiwFhA/s1600/2.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 2. Alyssum corsicum, a nickel hyperaccumulator.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
A first estimate [1] shows that the recovery of nickel by using these plants will cost no more than the current way of nickel production. This means that all the savings on CO2 expenditure and CO2 storage are essentially cost-free. In instances where an appropriate value may be associated with the CO2 savings compared to conventional nickel production, nickel farming may economically outcompete incumbent nickel production processes.<br />
<br />
Once such nickel hyperaccumulation systems will have been fully developed and become deployable, it is hoped that governments adopt incentive structures that oblige mining companies with nickel mining assets to conduct at least part of their businesses with these methods and that associated CO2 savings and removals are quantified and verified. In addition, because the nickel obtained from phytomining is not extracted from nickel ores but from common peridotite rocks, nickel farming will extend the lifetime of nickel ore deposits.<br />
<br />
<b>2. Biodiesel from Diatoms</b><br />
<br />
Diatoms (siliceous algae) make up a large part of the biomass in the oceans. They consist about 50% of the lipids, which makes them an ideal raw material for the production of biodiesel. The process to make biodiesel from algae is already known. They grow fast and can outcompete their competitors in the algal world in the fight for food, provided that there is sufficient silica available in their environment. Diatoms need silica for the construction of their silica skeleton (Figure 3). An extensive discussion of the role of dissolved silica in promoting the growth of diatoms at the cost of other plankton like dinoflagellates can be found in [2].<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mhIDf7o3tgA/UtT5JrvYB7I/AAAAAAAAMgE/QN6kF61yMZ8/s1600/3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mhIDf7o3tgA/UtT5JrvYB7I/AAAAAAAAMgE/QN6kF61yMZ8/s1600/3.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 3. Diatoms have delicate silica skeletons.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Land-grown biofuels (among others oil palm, sugarcane, sweet sorghum, soybean, maize) occupy vast tracts of land that would normally be used for food production, or land that used to be the territory of threatened species like the orangutan. They also need vast volumes of scarce irrigation water and fertilizer. This results in higher prices for these fertilizers, which will push up their price as well as the price of food.<br />
<br />
Diatoms do not have these drawbacks, but before they can be used as an alternative source of biofuel, the problems of mass culturing and harvesting them must be solved. A large-scale mariculture of diatoms might take the following shape. An artificial lagoon can be sectioned off by a dike around a sector of shallow seawater in front of a beach section.<br />
<br />
The beach between the low-tide mark and the high-tide mark must be covered by a layer of olivine sand with a thickness of about 0.5 m. One or more U-shaped tubes are left in the dike that connects the lagoon with the open sea, permitting the tide to reach the lagoon and to alternatively wet and drain the olivine beach. These tubes should be closed by a perforated metal plate covered with a plankton net. This would permit the exchange of water, but prevent the diatoms to be carried out of the lagoon by the ebb. The olivine will weather, and the weathering solution, including the silica that is set free during the olivine reaction, will be distributed in the lagoon. In addition, the bicarbonate that is captured during olivine weathering will be used by the diatoms for photosynthesis.<br />
<br />
When the silica limitation is removed, diatoms will form a quasi-monoculture in the lagoon. Nutrients should, of course, be added, mainly for their ammonia and phosphate requirements. A cheap way to do this would be by the use of struvite, an ammonium-magnesium phosphate that is produced by a simple and robust technology in the treatment of organic wastes, including manure, urban waste, and urine [3]. Struvite is a slow-release fertilizer that will steadily add ammonium and phosphate to the lagoon. The addition of nutrients should be limited, however, because diatoms react to a slight starvation by raising their lipid content, which increases their value for biodiesel production. The diatom production can be increased by underwater lighting at night.<br />
<br />
Harvesting the diatoms efficiently is a major problem. The following possibility may provide a solution. Dig a hole inside the lagoon. Dead diatoms will collect in this pit, also thanks to the fact that they are relatively heavy due to their silica skeletons. From time to time, this mass of dead diatoms can be sucked up, drained and transported to the biofuel plant.<br />
<br />
When the culture and harvesting of vast volumes of diatoms can be successfully accomplished, this application will become financially self-supporting and will reduce CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. It can be setup in any country with marine coastlines, preferentially in dry climate zones with abundant sunshine.<br />
<br />
<b>3. Quenching Forest Fires</b><br />
<br />
Forest fires (Figure 4) are the largest CO2 emitters after the burning of fossil fuels. Forest fires and, to a lesser extent, other forest losses account annually for about 6 Gt of extra CO2 emissions on a total of somewhat more than 30 Gt of human CO2 emission [4]. They cause every year not only huge financial losses but also the deplorable loss of human lives. Experimental fires at the test site of Brandbeveiliging BV (Fire Protection) in the Netherlands were considerably faster and completely extinguished by spraying with a suspension of serpentine powder than with plain water. Serpentinite powder from the PASEK mine in North-West Spain and from the Isomag Mine in Austria was used with equally positive results.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9yq4rCkjtG0/UtT5WN2qlQI/AAAAAAAAMgM/BDLm2bO_FdY/s1600/4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9yq4rCkjtG0/UtT5WN2qlQI/AAAAAAAAMgM/BDLm2bO_FdY/s1600/4.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 4. Forest fires are the second largest emitter of CO2 in the world.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Serpentine can be considered the hydrated equivalent of olivine. Huge massifs of serpentinite are formed by the interaction of olivine with hydrothermal waters and also on the ocean floor along mid-ocean ridges. Serpentinite is a soft rock and serpentine is similar to a clay mineral. Like any other clay, it can be baked into a hard, brick-like substance. When this calcined serpentine is pulverized, it turns out that the powder reacts fast with CO2 and water, considerably faster even than olivine. It would be an excellent material to rapidly remove CO2 from the atmosphere, but baking it costs a lot of energy and associated CO2 emission. So, it is a pity, but using calcined serpentine against climate change is out…, except in cases where one wants to quickly remove as much heat as possible, like in extinguishing forest fires. When serpentine slurries were tested in test fires, they not only removed a considerable amount of heat from the fire, but they displayed another property which is probably more decisive. The serpentine that was sprayed over the fire turned into a thin baked impermeable skin that prevented the access of oxygen to the burning material, and also prevented the emission of the inflammable gases from the burning wood.<br />
<br />
So, when forest fires are raging, the spraying of serpentine slurries (almost as simple as spraying water, because a 40% serpentine slurry is still very fluid) can reduce the extent and severity of such fires. When a reduction of 10% in forest losses could be achieved worldwide, this would already be a major breakthrough, since this represents a reduction of 0.6 Gt of CO2 emissions each year.<br />
<br />
Moreover, after extinction of the fire, the calcined serpentine will quickly react with CO2 and the first rainwater, thereby compensating part of the CO2 that was emitted by the fire. It is clear that the spraying of serpentine (serpentine powder is a cheap and ubiquitous material) is a very cost-effective way of reducing the huge financial losses from forest fires, and it holds the promise of reducing losses of life as well. It pays amply for the reduction in CO2 emission by limiting the areal extent of burnt forest and by the capture of CO2 by the reaction of the calcined serpentine afterwards. It also limits the required volumes of water considerably, which is important in hot dry summers in countries that are most vulnerable for forest fires and have only limited fresh water resources.<br />
<br />
It should be considered whether the spraying of serpentine slurries can also be used in the containment of tunnel fires.<br />
<br />
<b>4. Supergreen Energy</b><br />
<br />
A property of olivine weathering that is commonly overlooked is its energy production. When olivine is weathering under conditions of limited water flow, it weathers according to:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><b>Mg<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>2</sub></span>SiO<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>4</sub></span> <complete id="goog_1629010964">+</complete> CO<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>2</sub></span> + H<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>2</sub></span>O <span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 16.1200008392334px;"><span style="font-size: large;">→</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 16.1200008392334px;"> </span> Mg<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>3</sub></span>Si<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>2</sub></span>O<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>5</sub></span>(OH)<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>4</sub></span> + MgCO<span style="font-size: x-small;"><sub>3</sub></span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;">Olivine, Carbon dioxide, Water Serpentine, Magnesite </div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div>Serpentine is like a clay mineral, and magnesite is similar to limestone. It is well known that baking clays to make bricks costs a lot of energy and the same holds for burning lime to make quicklime. If we follow the reverse route and make clays and carbonates, such energy is set free. Unfortunately, weathering reactions are notoriously slow, so there are no technological applications for this energy yet, because under normal conditions this heat will be radiated or conducted away. That is a pity, because the energy that is produced by the weathering of olivine is considerable. The heat flow anomalies along the mid-ocean ridges may be due, for a large part, to the widespread serpentinization of mantle rocks when they react with infiltrating sea water [5].<br />
<br />
In a system that is very well isolated and has a large volume-to-surface ratio, it might be possible to recover most of that energy. Rocks are excellent thermal isolators, as shown by caves. If one visits a cave in summer, it feels nice and cool, and in winter it feels pleasantly warm. This is because the surrounding rocks provide a good thermal isolation and keep the cave at a fairly constant temperature throughout the year. The larger the volume of olivine sand under good isolating conditions, the better it will be able to develop and keep a high temperature. One might say, volume stands for heat production and surface area stands for heat loss; thus, the larger the volume (and the thicker the isolation), the lesser the heat loss.<br />
<br />
A scenario that provides these conditions could be the following. An existing 550-m deep lignite mine in Germany (Figure 5) will be taken as an example; but in fact, any deep open pit mine could serve, whether in operation or left as a scar in the landscape after closure .<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iGfWXWuD-PM/UtT5j8Qv9LI/AAAAAAAAMgU/GK0pmWQ1Yng/s1600/5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iGfWXWuD-PM/UtT5j8Qv9LI/AAAAAAAAMgU/GK0pmWQ1Yng/s1600/5.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 5. A lignite mine in Germany.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>The lignite mining goes on at the front end of the mine, while the mined-out rear part is filled with the overburden that was first removed to reach the lignite seams. This way the mine moves slowly through the landscape. Villages are torn down in front of the mine and rebuilt at the backside. Instead of refilling the whole mine with the overburden, the lower 250 m may be filled with olivine sand and then topped off with the remainder of the overburden. This setup provides thermal isolation and also sufficient counter-pressure to maintain the pore waters in a liquid state. Before doing this, a network of perforated pipes and heat exchangers should be installed in the olivine sand, through which water (or steam) and CO2 can be injected. A set of thermistors inside the olivine mass will make it possible to follow its thermal evolution.<br />
<br />
As long as the temperature is low, the reaction will be slow. In order to kickstart the process, it is advisable to first inject steam to heat the inside of the mass. This will increase the reaction rate, and as the reaction takes off, the temperature will rise further and the reaction accelerates.<br />
<br />
When the system has reached a sufficiently high temperature to be of interest for power production, water is passed through the heat exchangers and converted to high-pressure steam.<br />
<br />
It should be evident that such a system will require a lot of additional and rather unusual engineering before it can be operational. On the other hand, the potential reward is huge because it represents an almost unlimited amount of energy. This energy is called supergreen energy because it does not produce CO2, but, on the contrary, it traps it in a safe and solid form. The question asked by the author in [6] is relevant ‘So what would we prefer, a CCS infrastructure that uses a quarter of a power station’s electricity to sequester its CO2 emissions under the North Sea or one that generates additional electricity and useful materials products?’.<br />
<br />
A major technical problem may arise if silica that is released during the olivine reaction would form a layer on the olivine grains, preventing the reaction to proceed. A possible way out is to mix the olivine sand with some minute quartz grains. Quartz has a much lower solubility than amorphous silica, so the dissolved silica that is released in solution will tend to diffuse to the quartz grains and precipitate as an overgrowth on quartz surfaces instead of on the olivine grains, leaving the olivine surfaces free for continued reaction.<br />
<br />
<b>5. Coastal Protection</b><br />
<br />
Olivine can be used in several ways to protect coastlines against erosion. Olivine is considerably heavier than normal quartz sand (specific masses of 3.4 versus 2.65 kg/m3), which makes it more resistant to physical erosion. Olivine blocks can be used in the construction of permeable breakwaters. In a permeable triangular breakwater, pointing into the sea, the force of the longshore (flood and ebb) currents is weakened because part of the water passes through the breakwater and loses momentum in doing so, while another part is deviated from the coast. Both effects reduce coastal erosion. If the sections at either side of the breakwater are covered with olivine sand, it will resist erosion even better.<br />
<br />
Another way of using olivine for coastal protection is the construction of olivine reefs at strategic points to keep waves and currents away from the coast. If the seawater that is enclosed in the reefs is only slowly refreshed, its pH will rise as a consequence of the olivine reaction. This may lead to the precipitation of calcite, so that these reefs are self-cementing. They will become hatching and hiding places for fish and a place for mussels and oysters to settle (Figure 6).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dkTZTn9hq7I/UtT6Cz6GVUI/AAAAAAAAMgc/MNHb1TRK_Mg/s1600/6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dkTZTn9hq7I/UtT6Cz6GVUI/AAAAAAAAMgc/MNHb1TRK_Mg/s1600/6.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 6. The sea as a threat: the Hondsbossche Zeewering along the Dutch Coast.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Stretches of beach that lose sand can be restored by spreading olivine sand on the beaches. Olivine sand on beaches feels well, and children love to build their sand castles with it and make sand sculptures of dolphins and seals (Figure 7).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DuxiTMQXeBw/UtT6PbY58bI/AAAAAAAAMgk/9v7z8wyOSeg/s1600/7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DuxiTMQXeBw/UtT6PbY58bI/AAAAAAAAMgk/9v7z8wyOSeg/s1600/7.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-size: medium; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 7. The sea as an ally. Children making sand sculptures of olivine sand that <br />
will merge with the sea at high tide and help in counteracting ocean acidification.</i></div></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Very rough coastal stretches can be covered with olivine grit, preferably of various sizes. In imitated surf experiments, we have shown that mixtures of different grain sizes become rounded and are abraded faster than single grain sizes by the multiple grain-to-grain collisions [7]. During this polishing in the surf, small micron-sized slivers of olivine are knocked off (see also Section ‘Olivine in high-energy marine environments’). These slivers react very rapidly with sea water and add alkalinity to counteract ocean acidification. It was even found that brucite (Mg(OH)2) formed already after a few days in experiments with olivine and seawater. From the observations on white smokers [8], it is known that brucite is rapidly transformed into aragonite (Figure 8).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U_-ujQXQTAQ/UtT6ks0RXiI/AAAAAAAAMgs/VBw6FUBFJD4/s1600/8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U_-ujQXQTAQ/UtT6ks0RXiI/AAAAAAAAMgs/VBw6FUBFJD4/s1600/8.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 8. Sixty-meter tall aragonite (replacing brucite) chimneys on Lost City seamount.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>Coastal protection with olivine, instead of with the usual basalt blocks, will add alkalinity to the ocean and also provide places of interest to tourists. This makes this combined function of CO2 capture and alkalinity provider also financially attractive. Rough stretches of beach covered with olivine grit can serve as natural tumbling devices, where nicely rounded green grit can be produced by the surf. These may serve for applications as diverse as chicken grit and covering material for driveways. Tourists may also find these polished marbles attractive collector’s items. Using the surf which is free of charge, instead of mechanical crushing and tumbling devices, is an additional modest saving. Another financial advantage is that olivine cargo ships can unload their olivine directly in front of the coast, thus avoiding harbor dues.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Olivine in High-Energy Marine Environments</b><br />
<br />
It is a paradigm that weathering on land, and under marine conditions, always would be a slow process. When olivine grains, preferably of different sizes, are free to be kept in motion by currents, their weathering is a fast process. The grains are quickly rounded and abraded by mutual collisions (Figure 9), producing myriads of micron-sized slivers (see picture in Additional file 1; see also [9]).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JXUiHYl8A5Y/UtT61FYiKeI/AAAAAAAAMg0/xAHmmpKlMhQ/s1600/9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JXUiHYl8A5Y/UtT61FYiKeI/AAAAAAAAMg0/xAHmmpKlMhQ/s1600/9.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"><i>Figure 9. Angular olivine grains are quickly rounded <br />
and abraded by mutual collisions when kept in motion.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>In experiments where modest current action was imitated by letting olivine grains rotate slowly along the bottom of an Erlenmeyer, the water had become opaque white after a few days of rotation, the pH of the solution had gone up, and neoformed grains of brucite, a mineral known to transform into carbonate fast, had evolved.<br />
<br />
Many shallow sea floors are covered with gravel. When 700,000 km<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup>2</sup></span> of such sea bottoms are covered each year with a 1-cm thick layer of olivine grit, this would compensate the entire anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and raise the pH of the oceans. To make it more concrete, the following example may serve. Part of the continental shelf between the Shetland Isles and France, i.e. the Southern Bight of the North Sea, the English Channel and the Irish Sea, is covered with sand waves, and in and around the Channel, an area of well over 100,000 km<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup>2</sup></span> experiences bed stresses capable of transporting gravel [10,11]. If a volume of 0.35 km<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup>3</sup></span> coarse olivine is spread over 35,000 km<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><sup>2</sup></span> of this area, this would compensate 5% of the world’s CO2 emissions, that is more than the combined emissions of the adjoining countries, the UK, France, Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands together [9].<br />
<br />
Another site where the spreading of coarse olivine grit may work out well is the Maelstrom, with very strong tidal current in the Lofoten Islands, Norway, and there are many more suitable areas in shallow shelf seas.<br />
<br />
The alkalinity brought in by the olivine is of great importance. It counteracts ocean acidification, and the contained bio-limiting nutrients, Si and Fe, enhance marine productivity thereby capturing additional CO2. Another factor that makes this approach low-cost is that large carriers can bring the olivine directly to the place of use, where they are discharged, thus avoiding harbor dues and additional transport costs.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Results and discussion</span></b><br />
<br />
<b>A preliminary volume and cost-benefit estimate</b><br />
<br />
At this early stage, it is virtually impossible to provide accurate estimates of the volumes of CO2 involved for each of the options, and of the amount of money potentially won or lost.<br />
<br />
Table 1 should, therefore, be taken as a not too-educated guess of the orders of magnitude involved in each of the six options. The large spread in the numbers for the first five options is caused by the uncertainty whether the particular activity will be executed in a few tests on essentially pilot scale, or as a worldwide activity.<br />
<br />
<b>Table 1. </b>Estimated order of magnitude of CO2 capture and/or emission reduction and money involved<br />
<table bgcolor="white" border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"></td><td valign="_top" width="40%"><i>CO2 capture or emission reduction</i> </td><td valign="_top" width="30%"><i>Cost or benefit </i></td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><i>Unit</i></td><td valign="_top" width="40%">1 Million ton</td><td valign="_top" width="27%">1 Million euro</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><i>Options:</i></td><td valign="_top" width="40%"></td><td valign="_top" width="23%"></td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><b>1. Nickel farming</b></td><td valign="_top" width="40%">1 to 50</td><td valign="_top" width="23%">0 to +200</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><b>2. Biodiesel from diatoms</b></td><td valign="_top" width="40%">50 to 1,000</td><td valign="_top" width="23%">+10 to +500</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><b>3. Quenching forest fires</b></td><td valign="_top" width="40%">100 to 1,000</td><td valign="_top" width="23%">+200 to + 2,000</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><b>4. Supergreen energy</b></td><td valign="_top" width="40%">20 to 1,000</td><td valign="_top" width="23%">+50 to + 5,000</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><b>5. Coastal protection</b></td><td valign="_top" width="40%">10 to 1,000</td><td valign="_top" width="23%">−1 to + 100</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="_top" width="37%"><b>6. Olivine in high-energy waters</b> </td><td valign="_top" width="40%">25,000</td><td valign="_top" width="23%">−500,000<sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">3</span></sup></td></tr>
</tbody></table><sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">3</span></sup>If the figure of 50 billion euro of costs for the option in the last row is compared to the cost of the CCS-option, the deficit changes into a benefit of 0 billion euro [cf. 12].<br />
<br />
The cost of the olivine in high-energy shallow seas is calculated as the total costs of spreading 25 Gt of crushed olivine in shallow high-energy seas. When compared to carbon capture and storage (CCS), it should not be marked as a cost of 50 billion euro, but as a benefit of 0 billion euro.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusions</span></b><br />
<br />
It is likely that the first five examples of large-scale applications of the olivine option that are presented in this paper will all turn out to be profitable or, at least, financially self-supporting without requiring subsidies or carbon credits. The costs/benefits of the spreading of olivine in high-energy shallow seas depend on the way to calculate it. If it is just the cost of the operation itself, this total solution of the climate problem and ocean acidification costs a lot of money (order of 15% of the price of the equivalent amount of crude oil), but if it is compared to the costs of the CCS alternative, which is still on the agenda of several governments, it will save a huge amount of money. The major obstacle may well be that the unusual character of the proposals will delay their introduction because parties have a tendency to shy away from untested innovative approaches. Each of the six represents a major breakthrough in the attempts to control climate change and ocean acidification.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Methods</span></b><br />
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This study utilized stimulation of a chemical reaction that has been common at the Earth’s surface over the last 4.5 billion years.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Competing interests</span></b><br />
<br />
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Authors’ contributions</span></b><br />
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RDS developed ideas about the use of stimulated olivine weathering as a means to counter human CO2 emissions. PDB carried out flume experiments. Both authors contributed to, read and approved the final manuscript.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Acknowledgements</span></b><br />
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Prof. Elburg (Durban) is thanked for suggesting some significant modifications. David Addison from Virgin Group, London is thanked for going through the text and suggesting a number of clearer formulations.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">References</span></b><br />
<ol><li>Schuiling RD: Farming nickel from non-ore deposits, combined with CO2 sequestration. Natural Science 2013, 5:4.</li>
<li>Scheffran J, Dürr HH, Wolf-Gladrow DA, De La Rocha CL, Köhler P, Renforth P, Joshua West A, Hartmann J: Enhanced chemical weathering as a geoengineering strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide, supply nutrients, and mitigate ocean acidification. Rev. Geophysics 2013, 51:113–149.</li>
<li>Schuiling RD, Andrade A: Recovery of struvite from calf manure. Environ. Techn 1999, 20:765–768.</li>
<li>Van der Werf GR, Morton DC, DeFries RC, Olivier JGJ, Kasibhatla PS, Jackson RB, Collatz GJ, Randerson JT: CO2 emissions from forest loss. Nature Geoscience November 2009, 2009:2.</li>
<li>Schuiling RD: Serpentinization as a possible cause of high heat-flow values in and near oceanic ridges. Nature 1964, 201:807–808. no 4921.</li>
<li>Priestnall M: Making money from mineralization of CO2. Carbon Capture Journal, February 03, 2013.</li>
<li>Schuiling RD, de Boer PL: Rolling stones; fast weathering of olivine in shallow seas for cost-effective CO2 capture and mitigation of global warming and ocean acidification. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss 2011, 2:551–568. doi:10.5194/esdd-2-551-2011.</li>
<li>Shipboard Scientific Party, Roe KR, Schrenk MO, Olson EJ, Lilley MD, Butterfield DA, Jeff G, Gretchen F-G, Blackman DK, Karson JA, Kelley DS: An off-axis hydrothermal vent field discovered near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 30°N. Nature 2001, 412:145–149.</li>
<li>de Boer PL, Schuiling RD: Fast weathering of olivine in high-energy shallow seas for cost-effective CO2 capture as a cheap alternative for CCS, and effective mitigation of ocean acidification. AGU 2013 Fall Meeting, OS13A-1689. <a href="ftp://ftp.geog.uu.nl/pub/posters/2013/Mitigation_of_CO2_emissions_by_stimulated_natural_rock_weathering%e2%80%93fast_weathering_of_olivine_in_high-energy_shallow_seas-Schuiling_deBoer-November2013.pdf">ftp://ftp.geog.uu.nl/pub/posters/2013/Mitigation_of_CO2_emissions_by_stimulated_natural_rock_weathering%e2%80%93fast_weathering_of_olivine_in_high-energy_shallow_seas-Schuiling_deBoer-November2013.pdf</a></li>
<li>Belderson RH, Wilson RH, Holme NA: Direct observation of longitudinal furrows in gravel, and their transition with sand ribbons of strongly tidal seas. In Tide-Influenced Sedimentary Environments and Facies. Edited by de Boer PL, et al. Dordrecht: Reidel; 1988:79–90.</li>
<li>Mitchell AJ, Ulicny D, Hampson GJ, Allison PA, Gorman GJ, Piggott MD, Wells MR, Pain CC: Modelling tidal current-induced bed shear stress and palaeocirculation in an epicontinental seaway: the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, Central Europe. Sedimentology 2012, 57:359–388.</li>
<li>McKinsey & Company: Carbon Capture & Storage: Assessing the Economics; Report September 22, 2008.</li>
</ol><div><br />
</div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>© 2013 Schuiling and de Boer</i></div><div><i>This article was published December 21, 2013, at <a href="http://www.enveurope.com/content/25/1/35">enveurope.com/content/25/1/35</a> under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0">Creative Commons Attribution License</a>, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</i></div></div><br />
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-48649221229966089632013-12-13T19:08:00.002-08:002022-08-01T22:31:10.992-07:00Ocean Tunnels<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jdr2FVmEnoY/UqujLYhu5tI/AAAAAAAAMIs/OaPB70Q37yc/s1600/7454275957.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jdr2FVmEnoY/UqujLYhu5tI/AAAAAAAAMIs/OaPB70Q37yc/s1600/7454275957.jpg" /></a></div>
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Ocean tunnels are proposed by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/patrick.mcnulty.58">Patrick McNulty</a> as a way to combat global warming. Many of these tunnels, lined up across the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream">Gulf Stream</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuroshio_Current">Kuroshio Current</a>, could supply large quantities of clean energy to the North American East Coast and to East Asia.<br />
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Such tunnels can supply energy continuously, i.e. 24 hours a day, all year, making them suitable to supply base load energy as currently generated by coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants. </div>
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Ocean tunnels thus hold the potential to supply huge amounts of clean energy and facilitate a rapid move to a sustainable economy, as part of the comprehensive and effective action needed to combat climate change. This is pictured in the image below under part 1. </div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-khh2FLZfKWA/Uquo_pXTeHI/AAAAAAAAMI8/0iJnE6XMsQk/s1600/539684_10153329121905161_2023883143_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-khh2FLZfKWA/Uquo_pXTeHI/AAAAAAAAMI8/0iJnE6XMsQk/s1600/539684_10153329121905161_2023883143_n.jpg" height="308" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Comprehensive and effective action is discussed at the <a href="http://climateplan.blogspot.com/">Climate Plan blog</a></td></tr>
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Ocean Tunnels can be combined with Ocean thermal energy conversion (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_thermal_energy_conversion">OTEC</a>) methods that use the temperature difference between cooler deeper parts of the ocean and warmer surface waters to run a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine">heat engine</a> to produce energy. Once such a system is in place, it has access to both deeper parts of the ocean and to surface waters, while generating a lot of energy. Such a system can also be used to pull up sunken nutrients from the depth of the ocean and put them out at surface level to fertilize the waters there, while the colder water that is the output of OTEC will float down, taking along newly-grown plankton to the ocean depths before it can revert to CO2, as described in the earlier post <a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2013/03/using-the-oceans-to-remove-co2-from-the-atmosphere.html">Using the Oceans to Remove CO2 from the Atmosphere</a>.<br />
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Tunnels could regulate temperatures in the Arctic in a number of ways. The clean electricity they generate can replace ways polluting energy that warms up the Arctic. The clean energy tunnels generate can also be used in projects that help reduce temperatures in the Arctic. Furthermore, the turbines in tunnels can reduce the flow of ocean currents somewhat, thus reducing the flow of warm water into the Arctic. <br />
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Additionally, tunnels also hold the potential to divert warm water elsewhere and to move colder water into places that could otherwise get too warm, i.e. part 2. (Heat management) of the above action plan, more specifically management of water temperature. <br />
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Tunnels could be shaped to guide the flow of water into a specific direction, which could divert some of the water that is currently going into North Atlantic Current towards the Arctic Ocean down a southwards course along the Canary Current along the coast of West Africa.<br />
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Thus, tunnels could both produce energy to pump water elsewhere, or to pump water onto the sea ice and glaciers, to thicken the ice, or to pump sea water up into the air to spray it around and create clouds. The energy could be used in projects to help reduce temperatures in the Arctic. Additionally, tunnels could also be shaped in ways to guide water, which works even when no energy is generated. Tunnels is a concept with many applications and testing and further studies will show which applications are attractive. <br />
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A comprehensive action plan will need to consider a wide range of action. A warming Arctic results in changes to the Jet Stream, in turn making that more extreme weather can be expected, as illustrated by the video below, by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/paul.beckwith.9">Paul Beckwith</a>. </div>
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UffTC7yWQYo" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
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In July 2013, water off the coast of North America reached 'Record Warmest' temperatures and proceeded to travel to the Arctic Ocean, where it is still warming up the seabed, resulting in huge emissions of methane from the Arctic Ocean's seafloor.<br />
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<tr><td><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BpO0FQfgD_c/Uowv7jxXSSI/AAAAAAAAL80/UHV5aX86xgo/s1600/201307.gif" imageanchor="1" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BpO0FQfgD_c/Uowv7jxXSSI/AAAAAAAAL80/UHV5aX86xgo/s640/201307.gif" height="490" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">NOAA: part of the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North America reached record warmest temperatures in July 2013</td></tr>
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Diversion of ocean currents could reduce warming of the waters in the Arctic. As the image below shows, warm water is carried by the Gulf Stream all the way into the Arctic Ocean. <br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nR8DbLKnrA4/UqvKu2n5JiI/AAAAAAAAMJM/KGSP2uJDImE/s1600/Currents.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nR8DbLKnrA4/UqvKu2n5JiI/AAAAAAAAMJM/KGSP2uJDImE/s1600/Currents.jpg" /></a></div>
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Warming up of the waters in the Arctic is threatening to cause release of huge quantities of methane that is held in sediments under the seabed, as discussed in the post <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/quantifying-arctic-methane.html">Quantifying Arctic Methane</a>.<br />
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<b>References</b><br />
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- Climate change: Solutions to a big problem
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<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/climate-change-solutions-to-a-big-problem.html">http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/05/climate-change-solutions-to-a-big-problem.html</a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
- Arctic Methane Release and Rapid Temperature Rise are interlinked</div>
<div>
<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/arctic-methane-release-and-rapid-temperature-rise-are-interlinked.html">http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/arctic-methane-release-and-rapid-temperature-rise-are-interlinked.html</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
- Causes of high methane levels over Arctic Ocean</div>
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<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/causes-of-high-methane-levels-over-arctic-ocean.html">http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/causes-of-high-methane-levels-over-arctic-ocean.html</a></div>
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<div>
- Quantifying Arctic Methane</div>
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<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/quantifying-arctic-methane.html">http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/quantifying-arctic-methane.html</a></div>
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-26378517049595476332013-12-04T00:18:00.002-08:002022-08-01T22:32:13.342-07:00Methane-Eating Microbes Need Trace Metal<span style="background-color: white; color: #454545; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 31px;">Methane can be released from hydrates during an earthquake or by rising ocean temperatures, and this can contribute significantly to global warming. Stimulating microbes to consume the methane in the water could prevent methane from entering the atmosphere and, as a new study has found, trace metals may hold the key. The following is from a Georgia Institute of Technology news release. </span><br />
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A pair of cooperating microbes on the ocean floor “eats” this methane in a unique way, and a new study provides insights into their surprising nutritional requirements. Learning how these methane-munching organisms make a living in these extreme environments could provide clues about how the deep-sea environment might change in a warming world.</div>
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Scientists already understood some details about the basic biochemistry of how these two organisms consume methane, but the details of the process have remained mysterious. The new study revealed that a rare trace metal – tungsten, also used as filaments in light bulbs — could be important in the breakdown of methane.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9IBOp5cKnHo/Up7h-TXPP1I/AAAAAAAAMCA/7gAWnfFr8K0/s1600/glass-chamber.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9IBOp5cKnHo/Up7h-TXPP1I/AAAAAAAAMCA/7gAWnfFr8K0/s1600/glass-chamber.jpg" height="212" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Glass works in a chamber where she can control the oxygen<br />
levels to mimic the deep sea environment. Credit: Rob Felt.</td></tr>
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“This is the first evidence for a microbial tungsten enzyme in low temperature ecosystems,” said Jennifer Glass, an assistant professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.</div>
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The study was recently published online in the journal <em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Environmental Microbiology</em>. The research was sponsored by the Department of Energy, NASA Astrobiology Institute and the National Science Foundation. Glass conducted the research while working as a NASA Astrobiology post-doctoral fellow at the California Institute of Technology, in the laboratory of professor Victoria Orphan.</div>
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The methane-eating organisms, which live in symbiosis, consume methane and excrete carbon dioxide.</div>
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“Essentially, they are eating it,” Glass said. “They are using some of the methane as a carbon source and most of it as an energy source.”</div>
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Phylogenetically speaking, one microbial partner belongs to the Bacteria, and the other is in the Archaea, representing two distinct domains of life. The archaea is named ANME, or anaerobic methanotrophic archaea, and the other is a sulfate-utilizing deltaproteobacteria. Together, the organisms form “beautiful bundles,” Glass said.</div>
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For a close-up view of the action on the sea floor, the research team used the underwater submersible robot Jason. The robot is an unmanned, remotely operated vehicle (ROV) and can stay underwater for days at a time. The research expedition in which Glass participated was Jason’s longest continuous underwater trip to date, at four consecutive days underwater.</div>
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The carbon dioxide excreted by the microbes reacts with minerals in the water to form calcium carbonate. As the researchers saw through Jason’s cameras, calcium carbonate has formed an exotic landscape on the ocean floor over hundreds of years.</div>
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“There are giant mountains on the seafloor of calcium carbonate,” Glass said. “They are gorgeous. It looks like a mountain landscape down there.”</div>
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While on the seafloor, Jason’s robotic arm collected samples of sediment. Back in the lab, researchers sequenced the genes and proteins in these samples. The collection of genes constitutes the meta-genome of the sediment, or the genes present in a particular environment, and likewise the proteins constitute a metaproteome. The research team discovered evidence that an enzyme used by microbes to “eat” methane may need tungsten to operate.</div>
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The enzyme (formylmethanofuran dehydrogenase) is the last in the pathway of converting methane to carbon dioxide, an essential step for methane oxidation.</div>
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Microorganisms in low temperature environments typically use molybdenum, which has similar chemical properties to tungsten but is usually much more available (tungsten is directly below molybdenum on the periodic table). Why these archaea appear to use tungsten is unknown. One guess is that tungsten may be in a form that is easier for the organisms to use in methane seeps, but that question will have to be answered in future experiments.</div>
<br /><br /><b>References</b><br /><br />Methane-Munching Microorganisms Meddle with Metals - Research News, Georgia Institute of Technology <br /><a href="http://www.news.gatech.edu/2013/11/11/methane-munching-microorganisms-meddle-metals">http://www.news.gatech.edu/2013/11/11/methane-munching-microorganisms-meddle-metals</a><br /><br />Geochemical, metagenomic and metaproteomic insights into trace metal utilization by methane-oxidizing microbial consortia in sulphidic marine sediments, Jennifer B. Glass et al. (2013)<br /><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.12314/abstract">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.12314/abstract</a><br /><div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.29em; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-85143372080078006212013-05-07T17:42:00.001-07:002022-08-01T22:33:21.361-07:00ElectroStatic, NanoCone, Ion Gun, Vortex Separated, Ideal Drop Size, Saltwater Cloud-Cannons<div style="line-height: 14pt; margin-bottom: 10pt; margin-left: 0pt; margin-right: 0pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 0pt;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; color: #6699cc; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px; text-align: center;">Aaron Franklin</td></tr>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;">By Aaron Franklin</b><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-align: start;" />
<span style="line-height: 14pt; text-indent: 0pt;">The apparatus consists of a vertical cylindrical wind-rotor, the interior of which is used as an ideal drop size cloud making machine.</span></div>
<ul style="list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial;">
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The inside surface of the cylindrical wind rotor has metal coated polyester film laminated to it with the metal coated surface facing inwards.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The Metal coated Polyester film has been coated with a light sensitive emulsion, photo-exposed in a lattice of dots, and etched to produce an array of nano-cones on the surface of the metal, surounded by a hexagonal lattice of valleys.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">Spaced by insulators, a few millimeters from the nano-cone surface, is a concentric cylinder of metal mesh. This will probably be silver wire mesh of around 1mm grid spacing and 0.1mm wire gauge.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">At the centre of the cylinder is a non-rotating, star buttressed spar.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The star buttressed spar has microbubble aerated water plumbed through it, to a regularly spaced grid of de-Lavel nozzles, of around 1mm diameter, aiming tangentially at the inside of the rotor, from the outer tips of the star buttress.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The water supply aeration is around 50%, with the bubble size controlled to around 0.1mm. This should produce an atomised spray of water droplets around 0.1mm diameter, from the de-Lavel nozzles.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The 0.1mm water droplets transfer their energy to rotor rotation, and air vortex motion, in the cylinder of air close to the inner surface of the rotor cylinder.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The 0.1mm water droplets pass through the metal mesh, and land on the nanocone surface, producing a thin film of water.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">A high frequency, high voltage, alternating electric potential is supplied between the nano-cone metal film, and the metal mesh.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">When the voltage peaks the electric field will cause each Nano-cone to jet a charged micro-droplet of water. The apparatus will be tuned so that these droplets will be around half the ideal size for our perfect clouds.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The opposite charge on the metal mesh, will accelerate each charged droplet. The Voltage frequency will be such that the droplet reaches the mesh at the time that the polarity has fully reversed. This will ensure that the droplet passes through the mesh, and is carried by its momentum to the non-rotating airmass at the centre of the rotor.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">As droplets of alternating polarity are being fired into the rotor-core, each droplet will quickly be attracted to an oppositely charged droplet, combining to form a neutral droplet of the Ideal Size.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">At the bottom of the rotor cylinder the de Lavels are pointed a little upward to induce a helical input of air-large droplet mixture, entraining and sucking in air from the open bottom of the rotor.</li>
<li style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-align: left; text-indent: 0pt;">The axiswise upward angling of the lower de Lavels reduces the further up the rotor you go, reaching pure tangential before the top. This will create an inwards airflow towards the rotor axis.</li>
</ul>
<div style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-indent: 0pt;">
At droplet sizes of 8.e-12 litres, 20m rotor 2m diameter = 120sqm of nanocones, nanocone grid spacing 0.2 mm =25 /sqmm= 25 000 000 /sqm = 3 billion, and 5khz electric field....<span style="font-weight: bold;">120 litres per second of ideal droplets could be released by this system.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-indent: 0pt;">
At an average velocity from nanocone to grid of each droplet of 30m/s = 30 000 mm per second... the droplet will travel 3mm in 1/10000 of a second- the time taken for the 5khz field to reverse polarity. So with these numbers, 3mm gap between the Nanocone surface and the metal mesh seems appropriate.</div>
<div style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-indent: 0pt;">
Tuning will have to allow for evaporative losses from the droplets, however as all the droplets will have the same size and velocity, this should be an easy task.</div>
<div style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-indent: 0pt;">
It may not be necessary at all to use electrostatics. Larger helical angled de Lavels at the bottom of the rotor creating a vortex seperation system where too large droplets impact the inner surface of the rotor, and small enough ones exit at the top may work adequately. A fatter at the bottom, tapered rotor would work well in this case, as it would help expel out the bottom, the waste flow from the too large droplets centrifically.</div>
<div style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-indent: 0pt;">
Star buttresses may not be neccesary on the central spar, particularly with the non-electric version.</div>
<div style="line-height: 13pt; margin: 0pt 0pt 10pt; text-indent: 0pt;">
Filtering requirements are low, particles smaller than 0.1mm should cause no problems for the electro version, smaller than 1mm no probs at all for the pure vortex model.</div>
Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-13634208716670057882013-04-05T23:14:00.002-07:002022-08-01T22:35:33.226-07:00Klaus Lackner works on carbon capture technology<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-L4_kmp_H3bA/UV-0PvDkH3I/AAAAAAAAJl8/m64vkqscrEQ/s1600/9563784595.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-L4_kmp_H3bA/UV-0PvDkH3I/AAAAAAAAJl8/m64vkqscrEQ/s1600/9563784595.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="text-align: start;">Klaus Lackner,</span><br style="text-align: start;" /><span style="text-align: start;">Columbia University</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Professor Klaus Lackner, director of the <a href="http://energy.columbia.edu/">Lenfest Center for Sustainable Energy at the Earth Institute</a>, at Columbia University, is working on technology to scrub carbon dioxide from the air. “Our goal is to take a process that takes 100,000 years and compress it into 30 minutes,” says Lackner.<br />
<br />
Direct air capture of carbon dioxide is a method that takes carbon dioxide out of ambient air, as opposed to carbon dioxide that is captured from the point of emissions, say, from the smokestack of a coal-fired power plant.<br />
<br />
Lackner and his team are developing a device they call an air extractor, modeled after what is most abundant in nature: the leaf of a tree. There is about 0.5 liter of carbon dioxide in a cubic meter of atmosphere. When the extractor is dry, it loads itself with carbon dioxide from the air; when it's wet it releases carbon dioxide it has captured.<br />
<br />
“We can do this at a cost of about $30 a ton of carbon dioxide”, says Lackner, “we have designed a box that can extract about a ton of carbon dioxide a day; it fits into a shipping container”. “If we had 100 million of them", Lackner adds, “we could extract more carbon dioxide out of the air then is currently put in.”<br />
<br />
The carbon can be stored in the form of mineral carbonate rock or it can be injected deep in the ground. Alternatively, the carbon dioxide can be used, e.g. by turning it into a fuel. Airplanes will likely need to be powered by fuel for a long time, so captured carbon dioxide could be used to more sustainably produce synthetic jetfuel.<br />
<br />
In his lab at Columbia's Engineering School, Lackner has built a small greenhouse, demonstrating that air extractors loaded with captured carbon dioxide can be placed inside a greenhouse; the humid atmosphere inside the greenhouse will make that the carbon dioxide is released. Adding carbon dioxide to the air inside greenhouses is beneficial for plant growth; the plants will take the carbon dioxide out of the air and use it to grow.<br />
<br />
<div>
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qGL21j10C8Q" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>References</b><br />
<br />
- Prof. Klaus Lackner Takes Step Toward Workable Carbon Capture Technology<br />
<a href="http://news.columbia.edu/carbondioxide">http://news.columbia.edu/carbondioxide</a><br />
<br />
- Klaus S. Lackner, Director of the Lenfest Center for Sustainable Energy, Columbia University<a href="http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2523">http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2523</a><br />
<br />
- Prof. Klaus Lackner Takes Step Toward Workable Carbon Capture Technolog . .<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qGL21j10C8Q">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGL21j10C8Q</a><br />
<br />
- Direct Air Capture of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide<br />
<a href="http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2011/ph240/mccurdy1/">http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2011/ph240/mccurdy1/</a><br />
<br />
- The Great Debate: CLIMATE CHANGE - Surviving The Future (1:15 to 1:24)<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPaTAC29W2I&list=PLB026A38997FB8ED2&index=81">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPaTAC29W2I</a><br />
<br />
- Funding of Carbon Air Capture<a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2009/05/funding-of-carbon-air-capture.html">http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2009/05/funding-of-carbon-air-capture.html</a><br />
<br />
- Removing carbon from air - Discovery Channel<br />
<a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2008/10/removing-carbon-from-air-discovery.html">http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2008/10/removing-carbon-from-air-discovery.html</a>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-36355357412965935402013-03-05T20:07:00.003-08:002022-08-01T22:38:28.315-07:00Supersonic and high velocity Subsonic Saltwater and Freshwater Cloud Making Cannons<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; float: right; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: 1em; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; color: #6699cc; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px; text-align: center;">Aaron Franklin</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>By Aaron Franklin</b><br />
<br />
As a compliment to cloud brightening systems, these for use in calm blue sky conditions, or windy blue sky conditions, over Ocean, sea and glacial ice, and land permafrost.<br />
<br />
Also may be very important this year for as high tech cloud brightening/making doesn't look like it will be easy to get out in large unit numbers, while there is existing firepump systems that are available in numbers we need now.<br />
<br />
Also are essentially no different from snowmaking gear used on ski fields, except for making snow, lower velocity is fine, and no CCN's are required. Just air below 0C, and freshwater.<br />
<br />
- High pressure / high volume fire-fighting/water cannon pump gear can be used as is, or modified for higher pressure and kW capacities to increase output volumes at similar nozzle velocities. <br />
<br />
An aerated system looks best at this point because: <br />
<ul>
<li>By using de Laval nozzles ( convergent-divergent, supersonic and tight stream output ) the aerated water can be accelerated by expansion to high velocity or Supersonic speed as it leaves the divergent exit section of the nozzle.<br /></li>
<li>Nozzle friction is reduced because air sticks to the surface and creates a gaseous boundary layer.<br /></li>
<li><div class="MsoNormal">
For Aeration, copper or soft stainless tubes CNC laser perforated, swaged to flare to hexagonal ends, stacked for a honeycomb aeration section (just like a ww2 spitfire radiator except they had the water on the outside of the tubes and no holes) fed with compressed air, in the water feed before the pumps can entrain microbubbles in the water. </div>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Alternatively supersonic streams can be achieved with unaerated water with convergent nozzles, but more pressure is required.<br /></li>
<li>The high kinetic energy of the water stream will cause excellent dispersion, and evaporation, via transonic shockwaves as the stream slows, shedding its outer layer as it goes, eventually disintegrating completely either below the altitude where enough kinetic energy, has converted to gravitational potential energy for the stream to go transonic if the stream is below a critical diameter, or not far above that altitude if its above that diameter.<br /></li>
<li>If its a high velocity Subsonic jet it will still shatter the droplets and evaporate lots of, if not all of them by air turbulence and high differential speed energy conduction/friction evaporation.<br /></li>
<li>We need to look at freshwater versions as well. This because saltwater rain will be fine over open oceans but it landing on ice and land permafrost will make them melt faster. And saltwater rain on land living ecologies is not at all good either. There's going to be a big use for them to protect the land permafrosts with cloud cover too. Freshwater versions will benefit from using water with diatoms growing in it, as these act as cloud droplet condensation nuclei, just like salt crystals.<br /><br />Seeding tundra lakes with diatoms will also eat CO2, oxygenate the water enhancing aerobic digestion of dissolved methane and other organic carbon. Removing the diatoms with the water for cloud cannons will also remove excess nutrients from the waters, provide aeration for skyborne digestion of DOC to CO2, and will clean up lakes to make them better for winter snow-making watersources.<br /></li>
<li>We're going to need to straffe the sky with these things for best cloudmaking effect, so we need to get ready to mount them on naval gun turrets with computer controlled tracking systems and look into parking tanks and APC's with suitable turrets on container ship decks.<br /><br />Using these tanks and APC's, maybe fixed installations when the wind is blowing, with cloud-cannons on the arctic tundras can help protect the permafrosts. </li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><u>Calculations and conclusions, for peer review: </u></b><br />
<br />
<b>These are based on a sonic speed case. Faster will give more range but less volume and slower more volume but less range, for a given pump system. </b><br />
<br />
speed of sound 330m/s <br />
<br />
Ep= mgh <br />
<br />
Ek= 0.5mv^2 <br />
<br />
Ek sonic (1 kg water)= 0.5 x 1 x 330^2 = 54450J <br />
<br />
54450=mgh=1 x 9.8m/s^2 x h <br />
<br />
vertical ballistic altitude h=54450/9.8 = 5.556km <br />
<br />
<br />
cloud water content = 0.3g/m^3<br />
<br />
10m thickness= 3g/m^2 <br />
<br />
100m thickness= 30g/m^2 <br />
<br />
4 sqkm= 4,000,000 m^2 <br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Fixed position still air straffing: </u><br />
<br />
A=pi.r^2 <br />
<br />
r=sqrt(A/pi) <br />
<br />
<br />
4 sqkm horizontal Cannon range r = sqrt(4/pi)= 1.12km <br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Moving ship, land tanker, or wind blowing fixed position straffing: </u><br />
<br />
14m/s = 50km/hr (vehicle or wind velocity) <br />
<br />
-4 sqkm per hr requires only 4/50= 80m watercannon range. <br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Water volume and flow rates: </u><br />
<br />
4sqkm at 10m thick= 12000 liters= 12 tons (less than 10min with flow rates of existing fire pumps) <br />
<br />
at 100m thick = 120 tons (could be less than an hour per firepump) <br />
<br />
1 small Supersonic cloud cannon could produce 24hr x 4sqkm/hr = 96sqkm of 100m thick cloud per day. <br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Kinetic energy: </u><br />
<br />
120,000 liters per hr / 3600 = 33.3 L/s <br />
<br />
12,000 liters per hr / 3600 = 3.3 L/s <br />
<br />
Ek Sonic 1kg = 54.45 kJ <br />
<br />
<br />
kW 100m thick, 4sqkm cloud layer in an hr = 33.3 L/s x 54.45kJ = 1813 kW <br />
<br />
- existing pump designs would need to be upgraded for higher power/pressure to produce this much cloud, if supersonic velocities are required, but this is a very small engineering challenge. Ships trawler size and up, and tanks have more than enough kWs for the job. Rapid small amplitude vertical oscillation of the jet release angle should lay down the average 100m thick cloud bank aimed for.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
kW 10m thick, 4sqkm cloud layer in an hr = 3.3 L/s x 54.45kJ = 181.3 kW <br />
<br />
- this looks good for mobile straffing with existing fire pumps, provided aerated water and deLavel nozzles are used to produce supersonic velocities. The range required for 4 sqkm per hr coverage at only 80m is no problem for the small volume, aerated supersonic water flows possible from existing fire pumps. <br />
<br />
<br />
<u>Latent heat of evaporation and Ek sonic considerations: </u><br />
<br />
latent heat of evaporation water = 2260 kJ per L <br />
<br />
Ek sonic water = 54.45 kJ per L <br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>If the very small water droplets produced by transonic shockwaves shattering any water breaking from the decaying jet should partially or fully evaporate (this will depend on stream velocity) they will be doing this by absorbing a lot of heat from the air they are landing in. This will cool and supersaturate the air with water vapour, and result in rapid droplet condensation in both saltwater and freshwater versions proposed.<br /></li>
<li>I am advised that we can expect around 60% humidity levels in arctic conditions. As the evaporative cooling effect will cool the air that the stream droplets land in, and vast quantities of very small cloud nucleation salt crystals will be formed, we can expect a lot more cloud to be formed than the above examples suggest.<br /></li>
<li>Aeration should result in more and smaller salt crystals, and droplets. In part due to microbubbles enhancing droplet fragmentation. Also due to supersaturation of the water with air, enhanced by evaporation. This causing many disturbances per drop as new bubbles precipitate, and initiate many salt crystals per droplet to precipitate. Turbulence will also initiate precipitation of air and salt crystals in the supersaturated droplet.<br /></li>
<li>How much extra cloud will depend on how much atmosperic turbulence and mixing is generated by the straffing pattern, and on local temperature and humidity conditions.<br /></li>
<li>Less mixing will also result in larger cloud droplets.<br /></li>
<li>Too much mixing will run the risk of forming little cloud at all, as the humidity levels may be too low to form any droplets at all around the salt crystals.<br /></li>
<li>It's quite likely that 500-600kph will be sufficient velocity. This would produce about 15 litres per second from standard firepump gear. A good estimate seems to be that this would initially produce around 100sqkm of 100m thick cloud bank per day. However from what I am hearing there is likely to be a repeating cycle of droplet evaporation - re nucleation of new droplets - back to droplet evaporation, due to the added water vapour and downwind cooling effects. So total cloud produced may be more than this.<br /></li>
<li>We should start testing on these ASAP. Others doing testing too, would be a good thing.</li>
</ul>
Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-52387016101495901382013-03-05T15:49:00.003-08:002022-08-01T22:39:06.324-07:00An integrated systems plan for 10 year carbon pumpdown to 280ppm<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7ntD5tN88i8/UTaDI2sXrRI/AAAAAAAAJcg/B7VEs1bVLEk/s1600/AaronFranklin.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Aaron Franklin</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>By Aaron Franklin</b><br />
<br />
There's little point getting too distracted with talk on how to reduce human CO<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 17px;">2</span> emissions until we have succeeded in reversing the Arctic sea-ice crash. <br />
<br />
However, as geoengineering for this will be an ongoing annual commitment until CO<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 17px;">2</span> is back in the region of 280ppm, we do need a plan to pump carbon out of the atmosphere and the sea (where 60% of the 500 Gton total human contribution is residing.) <br />
<br />
Current estimates are 56.4 billion tonnes C/yr (53.8%), for terrestrial primary production, and 48.5 billion tonnes C/yr for oceanic primary production.<br />
<br />
It's been learned that the primary ocean production has fallen by nearly half in the last 100 years. The reduction in windblown dust from irrigation and cultivation of arid areas and the prolonging of the growing season of grasses in arid areas by CO<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 17px;">2</span> increases is most likely the biggest cause of this. This has resulted in the amount of natural wind-borne iron-carrying dust falling dramatically, 30% over the past 30 years alone.<br />
<ul>
<li>Tropical rainforests have globally 8 million square km with biomass productivity of 2000g Carbon per square meter for a total of 16 Gtons of Carbon per year. Doubling this area would only get near an extra 16 Gtons of annual carbon pulldown after 1 to 2 decades and with studies showing drought stress already turning Amazon and stheast Asian rainforests now net CO<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 17px;">2</span> producers rather than removers no gains might occur at all.<br />
<br />
</li>
<li>Temperate forests have globally 19 million square km with biomass productivity of 1,250g Carbon per square meter for a total of 24 Gtons of Carbon per year. Doubling this area would only get near an extra 24 Gtons of annual carbon pulldown after 1 to 2 decades, and then would need a further 20 years to remove the 500 Gton existing carbon debt, and thats assuming that 100 percent of carbon taken in by these trees can be kept away from consumers and decomposers.<br />
<br />
</li>
<li>The Oceans have globally 350 million square km with average biomass productivity of 140 gC/m²/yr for a total of 48.5 Gtons of Carbon per year. This is heavily weighted towards coastal areas at present. The open Oceans are 311 million sqkm with average biomass productivity of 125 gC/m²/yr and a total of 39 Gtons of Carbon per year, however, as can be clearly seen on the map below, some 80% of the ocean are so isolated from land sourced nutrient inputs that their productivity is about 1/100 of the most productive oceanic zones.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4mDssOtnIVc/UTZwTosDWFI/AAAAAAAAJcQ/T_UJsAYODEU/s1600/Seawifs_global_biosphere.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="408" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4mDssOtnIVc/UTZwTosDWFI/AAAAAAAAJcQ/T_UJsAYODEU/s640/Seawifs_global_biosphere.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> <span style="font-size: small; text-align: left;">map of the earth showing primary (photosynthetic) productivity, from:</span> <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Seawifs_global_biosphere.jpg" style="font-size: medium; text-align: left;">http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Seawifs_global_biosphere.jpg</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Oceanic desolate zone at 80% of 311 million sqkm is 249 million sqkm. 50 GtonsC/249million = 201 tonsC per sqkm per year = 200g C per sqmeter per year average. With prime coastal Aquatic enviroment like estuarys and coral reefs producing 10x that at 2000+ gC/sqm it would seem very achievable to increase the deep ocean productivity this much. <br />
<br />
Doubling the productivity of the oceans could pump down the global 500 Gton Carbon burden in as little as 10 years and is possible, affordable, already very well studied. <br />
<br />
In the currently near sterile central oceans the absence of an existing foodchain would ensure most of this Phytoplankton Carbon will die and sink a couple of hundred meters into the tidal mixed layer. <br />
<br />
<b>This can be a problem.... </b><br />
<br />
The amount of organic carbon needed to completely remove all oxygen from the WHOLE ocean as it is decomposed by bacteria is thought to be 1000 Gton C. Just letting the phytoplankton sink into the tidal mixed zone, which is low in oxygen already, would be a very bad idea.<b> Back to this later. </b><br />
<br />
As can be seen on the front page graphic of: <a href="http://www.aslo.org/meetings/Phytoplankton_Production_Symposium_Report.pdf">http://www.aslo.org/meetings/Phytoplankton_Production_Symposium_Report.pdf</a><br />
The benefits of iron fertilization alone are only achievable in the Nutrient Rich Iron Depleted zones of the southern ocean to 35degr sth, the equatorial oceans to 20degr sth and 10degr nth, and the nth pacific from 40 degr nth. These areas can easily be stimulated urgently. <br />
<br />
At the low figure of 1 million tonC/1ton Fe we would annualy need 50GtC/1MtC= 50000 tons of iron dust -bugger all. <br />
<br />
Antarctic krill have a total fresh biomass of up to 500 million tons. This will increase several times over when we iron fert the southern ocean. <br />
<br />
The rest of the desolate zones need nitrogen and phosphorus. Rather than using mined phosphates and CO<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12.222222328186035px; line-height: 16.99652862548828px;">2</span> producing urea for nitrogen there are these alternatives: <br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Natural volcanic ash. There are concerns about heavy metal contamination from this but as long as we stick to siliceous ash from recycled seafloor volcanism we should be pretty OK.<br />
</li>
<li>Wave pumped chimneys. Tested already, these pump nutrient rich deep benthic water via wave power. We would however need millions of these due to scale limitations imposed by ocean wavelengths.<br />
</li>
<li>Chimneys driven by submarine volcanism. An idea I was looking at 10 yrs ago (dibs on the carbon credits, giggles, could make me a trillionaire) this could quickly fill the oceanic gyres of the desolate zones with all the deep benthic and volcano enriched nutrients needed.<br />
</li>
<li>Good old fashioned blood and bone. Puree krill from the southern ocean and fert the low nutrient desolate zones.</li>
</ul>
<br />
Simultaneous with fertilising the desolate zones we'll need to seed them with the best diatoms and suitable higher temp krill species such as north pacific, common in the sea of Japan. It would be possible to multiply world krill population 100x, to the region of 50 Gtons, making them the biggest living carbon store on the planet<br />
<br />
Krill are looking very good for Ocean Fertilization for a number of reasons: <br />
<br />
a) Getting phytoplankton produced carbon to seafloor or depth.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-AU; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span><br />
- Approximately every 13 to 20 days, krill shed their chitinous exoskeleton which is rich in stable CaCO3.<br />
- Krill are very untidy feeders, and often spit out aggregates of phytoplankton (spit balls) containing thousands of cells sticking together.<br />
- They produce fecal strings that still contain significant amounts of carbon and the carbonate/silica glass shells of the diatoms.<br />
<br />
These are all heavy and sink very fast into the deep benthic zone and ocean floor. Oxygen levels are higher down there, and the deep benthic zone is much larger in volume than the rest of the worlds oceans. Besides which, unlike Phytoplankton alone, the spitballs and fecal strings stand a much beter chance of not being decomposed and using up oyxgen. The exoskeletons won't be decomposed at all.<br />
<br />
Quote wikipedia: "If the phytoplankton is consumed by other [than krill] components of the pelagic ecosystem, most of the carbon remains in the upper strata. There is speculation that this process is one of the largest biofeedback mechanisms of the planet, maybe the most sizable of all, driven by a gigantic biomass"<br />
<br />
b) They can be dried and pressed for krill oil. Krill oil can be used directly for biodiesel or as food suppliments.<br />
<br />
c) Dried krill (pressed or not),( and any other biomass) can be pyrolysised for gas, pyrolysis oil for existing power plants, and these can have their flue CO2 fed into algae ponds for negative carbon energy.<br />
<br />
- The pyrolysis oil can be used directly for large diesels like ships and heavy machinery.<br />
<br />
- The water soluble portion of pyrolysis oil can be used for timber construction adhesive for plywoods, chipboards, and laminated beams etc<br />
<br />
- Existing refineries can produce bio-petrols, bio-diesels, and bio-plastics from pyrolysis oil with little modification.<br />
<br />
- Pyrolysis also produces biochar, which is terrific fertiliser. Producing soils called Terra Preta that are able to sequester fresh carbon from humus, water and nutrients better than any other soils on the planet, and holding fertility for thousands of years. <b>This is the best and safest way to bury carbon.</b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
d) Krill are delicious nutritious food for humans to replace massively methane emitting beef/sheep/goats and reforest this pastoral land with food-forests and indigenous ecologies.<br />
<br />
e) Krill are the best food for a large number of fish and whale species. Putting carbon into living marine biomass is a safe store, and replacing the carbon that we have lost by depleting those stocks.<br />
<br />
f) Krill are very efficient phytoplankton harvesters, sometimes reaching densities of 10,000–30,000 individual animals per cubic metre. They quickly swarm to any plankton bloom in the area.<br />
<br />
Using them to harvest phytoplankton, and then using simple krill nets on the worlds fishing fleet, is much easier than getting phytoplankton out of the ocean ourselves, as that requires energy intensive centrifuge separation of large quantities of water.<br />
<br />
g) Krill Females lay 6,000–10,000 eggs at one time, and they reach maturity after 2-3 years.<br />
<br />
- Obviously they can quickly build biomass to any level we can provide food for. Particularly if we are putting them in fresh habitat where small fish that normally consume lots of tiny immature krill are absent.<br />
<br />
If we increased the total biomass of krill to 50 Gton fresh biomass as suggested above, that would be about 10 Gton C, then we could remove this amount of Carbon from the ocean every 2 years, this alone has the potential to remove 100 Gton C from the ocean/atmosphere in twenty years.<br />
<br />
As krill are such messy feeders, inefficient digesters and shed carbonate rich exoskeletons every 2-3 weeks, they probably would sink to the ocean floor to relatively safely aggregate into sediments, stable carbonate and undecomposed organic carbon around 100 times as much as that. So burying 500Gton C of CO<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 12.222222328186035px; line-height: 16.99652862548828px;">2</span> in one year would be possible.<br />
<br />
Obviously we only need to increase Krill populations by 10x to get the result we need in about 10 years total including the breed up time.<br />
<br />
We'd be best to harvest as much as possible to refertilise and replace the carbon in our soils. Remember that about 600 Gton C of carbon from our soils has gone into the oceans already in the last 2000 years.<br />
<br />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-4958078279748021082013-03-01T04:58:00.006-08:002022-08-01T22:39:53.089-07:00Using the Oceans to Remove CO2 from the Atmosphere<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7gBCWFhqR1c/UTCkbrlGbNI/AAAAAAAAJcA/umK4wWhJ6lQ/s1600/78565284726-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7gBCWFhqR1c/UTCkbrlGbNI/AAAAAAAAJcA/umK4wWhJ6lQ/s1600/78565284726-1.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 18.0625px; text-align: left;">William H. Calvin, PhD, Professor at</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 18.0625px; text-align: left;">University of Washington, </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 18.0625px; text-align: left;">author of: </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 18.0625px; text-align: left;">Global Fever: How to<br />
Treat Climate Change</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><i>By William H. Calvin</i></b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">1. Prospects for an Emergency Drawdown of CO</span>2</b></span><br />
<br />
Suppose we had to quickly put the CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> genie back in the bottle. After a half-century of “thinking small” about climate action, we would be forced to think big—big enough to quickly pull back from the danger zone for tipping points and other abrupt climate shifts.<br />
<br />
By addressing the prospects for an emergency drawdown of excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> now, we can also judge how close we have already come to painting ourselves into a corner where all escape routes are closed off.<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">7</sup><br />
<br />
Getting serious about emissions reduction will be the first course of action to come to mind in a climate crisis, as little else has been discussed. But it has become a largely ineffective course of action<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">11</sup> with poor prospects, as the following argument shows.<br />
<br />
In half of the climate models<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">14</sup>, global average overheating is more than 2°C by 2048. But in the US, we get there by 2028. It is a similar story for other large countries.<br />
<br />
Because most of the growth in emissions now comes from the developing countries burning their own fossil fuels to modernize with electricity and personal vehicles, emissions growth is likely out of control, though capable of being countered by removals elsewhere.<br />
<br />
But suppose the world somehow succeeds. In the slow growth IPCC scenario, similar to what global emissions reduction might buy us, 2°C arrives by 2079 globally–but in the US, it arrives by 2037.<br />
<br />
<i> So drastic emissions reduction worldwide would only buy the US nine extra years.</i><br />
<br />
However useful it would have been in the 20<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</sup> century, emissions reduction has now become a failed strategy, though still useful as a booster for a more effective intervention.<br />
<br />
We must now resort to a form of geoengineering that will not cause more trouble than it cures, one that addresses ocean acidification as well as overheating and its knock-on effects.<br />
<br />
Putting current and past CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">2</sub> emissions back into secure storage<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup> would reduce the global overheating, relieve deluge and drought, reverse ocean acidification, reverse the thermal expansion portion of sea level rise, and reduce the chance of more<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">4</sup> abrupt climate shifts.<br />
<br />
Existing ideas for removing the excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> from the air appear inadequate: too little, too late. They do not meet the test of being sufficiently big, quick, and secure. There is, however, an idealized approach to ocean fertilization<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup> that appears to pass this triple test.<br />
<br />
It mimics natural up- and down-welling processes using push-pull ocean pumps powered by the wind. One pump pulls sunken nutrients back up to fertilize the ocean surface—but then another pump immediately pushes the new plankton production down to the slow-moving depths before it can revert to CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub>.<br />
<br />
<b>How Big? How Fast?</b><br />
<br />
The atmospheric CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> is currently above 390 parts per million and the excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> growth has been exponential. Excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> is that above 280 ppm in the air, the pre-industrial (1750) value and also the old maximum concentration for the last several million years of ice age fluctuations between 200 and 280 ppm.<br />
<br />
Is a 350 ppm reduction target<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">12</sup>, allowing a 70 ppm anthropogenic excess, low enough? We hit 350 ppm in 1988, well after the sudden circulation shift<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">18</sup> in 1976, the decade-long failure of Greenland Sea flushing<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">24</sup> that began in 1978, and the sustained doubling (compared to the 1950-1981 average) of world drought acreage<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">6</sup> that suddenly began in 1982.<br />
<br />
Clearly, 350 ppm is not low enough to avoid sudden climate jumps<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">4</sup>, so for simplicity I have used 280 ppm as my target: essentially, cleaning up all excess CO<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sup>.<br />
<br />
But how quickly must we do it? That depends not on 2<span style="border: 0px; font-family: Symbol; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">°</span>C overheating estimates but on an evaluation of the danger zone<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">2</sup> we are already in.<br />
<br />
<b>The Danger Zone</b><br />
<br />
Global <i>average</i> temperature has not been observed to suddenly jump, even in the European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. However, other global aspects of climate have shifted suddenly and maintained the change for many years.<br />
<br />
The traditional concern, failure of the northern-most loop of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), has been sidelined by model results<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">20-22</sup> that show no sudden shutdowns (though they do show a 30% weakening by 2100).<br />
<br />
While the standard cautions about negative results apply, there is a more important reason to discount this negative result: there have already been decade-long partial shutdowns not seen in the models.<br />
<br />
Not only did the largest sinking site shut down in 1978 for a decade<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">24</sup>, but so did the second-largest site<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">23,28</sup> in 1997. Were both the Greenland Sea and the Labrador Sea flushing to fail together<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">2</sup>, we could be in for a major rearrangement of winds and moisture delivery as the surface of the Atlantic Ocean cooled above 55<span style="border: 0px; font-family: Symbol; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">°</span>N. From these sudden failures and the aforementioned leaps in drought, one must conclude that big trouble could arrive in the course of only 1-2 years, with no warning.<br />
<br />
<i>So the climate is already unstable. </i>(“Stabilizing” emissions<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">4</sup> is not to be confused with climate stability; it still leaves us overheated and in the danger zone for climate jumps. Nor does “stabilized” imply safe.)<br />
<br />
While quicker would be better, I will take twenty years as the target for completing the excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> cleanup in order to estimate the drawdown rate needed.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 1em; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b>The Size of the Cleanup</b><br />
<br />
It is not enough to target the excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> currently in the air, even though that is indeed the cause of ocean acidification, overheating, and knock-on effects. We must also deal with the CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> that will be released from the ocean surface as air concentration falls and the bicarbonate buffers reverse, slowing the drawdown.<br />
<br />
Thus, I take as the goal to counter the anthropogenic emissions<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">4,5</sup> since 1750, currently totaling 350 gigatonnes of carbon. (GtC =10<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">15</sup>g of Carbon=PgC.)<br />
<br />
During a twenty year project period, another 250 GtC are likely be emitted, judging from the 3% annual growth in the use of fossil fuels<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup> despite some efforts at emissions reduction. Thus we need to take bac<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="d5caed2c-9a1b-49a5-bc1a-77998c81da47@googlegroups.com__ednref3" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a>k 600 GtC within 20 yr at an average rate of 30 GtC/yr in order to clean up (for the lesser goal of countering continuing emissions, it would take 10 to 15 GtC/yr).<br />
<br />
Chemically scrubbing the CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> from the air is expensive and requires new electrical power from clean sources, not likely to arrive quickly enough. On this time scale, we cannot merely scale up what suffices on submarines.<br />
<br />
Thus we must find ways of capturing 30 GtC/yr with traditional carbon-cycle<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">8</sup> biology, where CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> is captured by photosynthesis and the carbon incorporated into an organic carbon molecule such as sugar<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="d5caed2c-9a1b-49a5-bc1a-77998c81da47@googlegroups.com__ednref5" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a>. Then, to take this captured carbon out of circulation, it must be buried to keep decomposition methane and CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> from reaching the atmosphere.<br />
<br />
<b>Sequestering CO2</b><br />
<br />
One proposal<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">26</sup> is to bundle up crop residue (half of the annual harvest is inedible leaves, skins, cornstalks, etc.) and sink the weighted bales to the ocean floor<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="d5caed2c-9a1b-49a5-bc1a-77998c81da47@googlegroups.com__ednref6" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a>. They will decompose there but it will take a thousand years before this CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> can be carried back up to the ocean surface and vent into the air.<br />
<br />
Such a project, even when done on a global scale, will yield only a few percent of 30 GtC/yr. Burying raw sewage<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">3</sup> is no better.<br />
<br />
If crop residue represents half of the yearly agricultural biomass, this also tells you that additional land-based photosynthesis, competing for space and water with human uses, cannot do the job in time.<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup> It would need to be far more efficient than traditional plant growth. At best, augmented crops on land would be an order of magnitude short of what we need for either countering or cleanup.<br />
<br />
<b>Big, Quick, and Secure</b><br />
<br />
Because of the threat from abrupt climate leaps, the cleanup must be big, quick, and secure.<br />
<br />
Doubling all forests might satisfy the first two requirements but it would be quite insecure—currently even rain forests<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">4</sup> are burning and rotting, releasing additional CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub>.<br />
<br />
<i> Strike One. </i> We are already past the point where enhanced land-based photosynthesis can implement an emergency drawdown. They cannot even counter current emissions.<br />
<br />
Basically, we must look to the oceans for the new photosynthesis and for the long-term storage of the CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> thus captured.<br />
<br />
<b>Fertilization per se</b><br />
<br />
Algal blooms are increases in biological productivity when the ocean surface is provided with fertilizer containing missing nutrients<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">15</sup> such as nitrogen, iron, and phosphorus.<br />
<br />
A sustained bloom of algae can be fertilized by pumping up seawater<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5,16,19</sup> from the depths, a more continuous version of what winter winds<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">9</sup> bring up.<br />
<br />
Currently about 11 GtC/yr settles out of the wind-mixed surface layer into the slowly-moving depths<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">13</sup> as plankton die. To settle out another 30 GtC/yr, we would need about four times the current ocean primary productivity. Clearly, boosting ocean productivity worldwide is not, by itself, the quick way to put the CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> genie back in the bottle.<br />
<br />
<i> Strike Two. </i>Our 41% CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> excess is already too large to draw down in 20 yr via primary productivity increases in the ocean per se.<br />
<br />
However, our escape route is not yet closed off. There is at least one plausible prospect for an emergency draw down for 600 GtC in 20 yr. It seeks to mimic the natural ocean processes of upwelling and downwelling.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">2. Push-pull ocean pipes</span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Upwelling and Downwelling</b><br />
<br />
Upwelling from the depths is typically caused by winds which push aside surface waters, especially those strong westerly winds in the high southern latitudes that continuously circle Antarctica without bumping into land.<br />
<br />
In addition to the heavier biomass (the larger fecal pellets and shells) that can settle into the depths before becoming CO<sub style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub>, there is downwelling, an express route to the depths using bulk flow. Surface waters are flushed via whirlpools into the depths of the Greenland Sea and the Labrador Sea<sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">23</sup>. This downwelling carries along the surface’s living biomass (from bacteria to fish) as well as the dissolved organic carbon (from feces and smaller cell debris).<br />
<br />
Note that, in the surface ocean, there is a hundred times more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) than the organic carbon inside living organisms<sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">1</sup>. Bacterial respiration produces CO<sub style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> from this DOC that reaches the air within 40 days.<br />
<br />
To augment normal downwelling, one could pump surface DOC and plankton into the ocean depths before they become CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub>. Half of the decomposition CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> produced in the depths rejoins the atmosphere when the deep water is first upwelled a millennium later. Thanks to ocean mixing in the depths and multiple upwelling sites at different path lengths, it will come back up spread out in time after that initial delay.<br />
<br />
There is an even larger spread because the other half (called refractory DOC<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">17</sup>) is somehow protected from becoming CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> for a while, even when cycled through the surface layers multiple times.<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">17</sup> Average radiocarbon dates for DOC in the depths are about 4,000 years, not 40 days.<br />
<br />
Thus, if we somehow sink 600 GtC into the ocean depths over 20 years, the return of 600 GtC of decomposition CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> to the air is spread out over, say, 6,000 years. That is an average of 0.1 GtC each year, about 1% of current emissions. Such a slow return of excess CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> can be countered by slow reforestation or similar measures.<br />
<br />
<i> From this analysis, we still have a plausible way out of the climate crisis, even on an emergency basis.</i><br />
<br />
What follows is an idealized example of how we might implement it, using less than one percent of the ocean surface for the next twenty years to do the equivalent of plowing under a cover crop.<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PfOrFet1O9k/UTCecIluX5I/AAAAAAAAJbg/79piDS-cdFQ/s1600/windmill-plantation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PfOrFet1O9k/UTCecIluX5I/AAAAAAAAJbg/79piDS-cdFQ/s1600/windmill-plantation.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #222222; font-size: 13px; text-align: left;"><span style="border: 0px; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fig. 1. A plankton plantation</span></b><span style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-size: 8pt; line-height: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"> design using windmill pumps (ref 5), including a fishing lane free of anchor cables. Shading shows the plume of nutrients from a single pump and the plume of organic matter dispersed in the depths. One advantage of windmills is that compressed air can be generated to be pumped into the depths, addressing anoxia problems. Spacing of windmills, however, is subject to the usual limitations of vortices downwind.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>Plowing Under a Cover Crop</b><br />
<br />
In addition to the up-pump of the fertilization-only example, add another wind-driven pump nearby that flushes the surface water back down into even deeper depths before its new biomass becomes CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> again.<br />
<br />
If we fertilize via pumping up and sink nearby via bulk flow (a push-pull pump)<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="f0cfb9a3-cc78-4438-9b04-352b7888cfd6@googlegroups.com__ednref35" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a>, we are essentially burying a carbon-fixing crop, much as farmers plow under a nitrogen-fixing cover crop of legumes to fertilize the soil.<br />
<br />
Algaculture yields<sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">25</sup> allow a preliminary estimate to be made of the size of our undertaking. Suppose that a midrange 50 g (as dry weight) of algae can be grown each day under a square meter of sunlit surface, and that half is carbon<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="f0cfb9a3-cc78-4438-9b04-352b7888cfd6@googlegroups.com__ednref36" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a>. Thus it takes about 1 x 10<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">-4</sup> m<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">2</sup> to grow 1 gC each year. To produce our 30 x 10<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 11px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">1</sup><span style="font-size: x-small;"><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup> </span>gC/yr drawdown rate would require 30 x 10<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">11</sup><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>m<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">2</sup> (0.8% of the ocean surface, about the size of the Caribbean).<br />
<br />
But because we pump the surface waters down, not dried algae, we would also be sinking the entire organic carbon soup of the wind-mixed surface layer: the carbon in living cells plus the hundred-fold larger amounts in the surface DOC. Thus the plankton plantations might require only 30 x 10<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">9 </sup><span style="border: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; letter-spacing: -0.1pt; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">m</span><sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">2</sup> (closer to the size of Lake Michigan).<br />
<br />
Apropos location<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup>, pumping down to 150 m near the edge of the continental shelf would deposit the organic carbon where it could be carried over the cliff and into the slower-moving deep ocean<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="f0cfb9a3-cc78-4438-9b04-352b7888cfd6@googlegroups.com__ednref40" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a>.<br />
<br />
The ocean pipe spacing, and the volume pumped down, will depend on the outflow needed to optimize the organic carbon production<a href="http://draft.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=784046717004475334" name="f0cfb9a3-cc78-4438-9b04-352b7888cfd6@googlegroups.com__ednref37" style="border: 0px; color: #1155cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></a> (the chemostat calculation). Only field trials are likely to provide a better estimate for the needed size of sink-on-the-spot plankton plantations, pump numbers, and project costs. The obvious test beds are the North Sea and Gulf of Mexico where thousands of existing drilling platforms could be used to support appended pipes and pumps for field trials<sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup>. Without waiting for floating pumps, we could quickly test for impacts as well as efficient plantation layouts.<br />
<br />
I have used windmills here for several reasons: they are familiar mechanisms and they enable a push-pull plantation layout to be readily illustrated. But there are a number of ways to achieve wind-wave-powered pumps, both up and down, such as <a href="http://atmocean.com/" style="border: 0px; color: #6611cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">atmocean.com</a>’s buoyed pipes and Salter’s elevated ring<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;"><i>23a</i></sup> to capture wave tops and create a hydrostatic pressure head for sinking less dense warm water into the more dense cool waters of the depths. Each implementation will have considerations peculiar to it; what follows are some of the more general advantages and disadvantages in the context.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eH9wxBpLh80/UTCe1zhF3EI/AAAAAAAAJbo/900skUQnloI/s1600/Kithel-pipes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eH9wxBpLh80/UTCe1zhF3EI/AAAAAAAAJbo/900skUQnloI/s1600/Kithel-pipes.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #222222; font-size: 13px; text-align: left;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fig 2 A,B</span></b><span style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">: A less expensive pump can be constructed that uses wave power and allows closer packing (ref 3). They would be more effective in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current because of the wave heights. Calvin (2012b), after P. Kithel’s design (<a href="http://atmocean.com/" style="border: 0px; color: #6611cc; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">atmocean.com</a>).</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m4rKbtQ7kDQ/UTCfDXnfR4I/AAAAAAAAJbw/O-PWVNZJtHI/s1600/Salter-Sink-detail.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m4rKbtQ7kDQ/UTCfDXnfR4I/AAAAAAAAJbw/O-PWVNZJtHI/s1600/Salter-Sink-detail.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #222222; font-size: 13px; text-align: left;">Fig 3. Salter Sink</b><sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: top;">23a</sup><b style="color: #222222; font-size: 13px; text-align: left;"> </b><span style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">uses a meter-high lip on a large floating ring to capture wavetops. This builds up enough hydrostatic pressure to push down warm surface water, kept enclosed by a skirt. It can also (not shown) achieve some upwelling. Warm water exiting in the depths will rise outside the tube, entraining higher-density nutrient-rich cold water. The mix can rise above the thermocline into the surface layer, fertilizing plankton growth. Detail from figure in Intellectual Ventures white paper</span><sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: top;">13a</sup><span style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>Pro and Con</b><br />
<br />
Here we have an idealized candidate for removing 600 Gt of excess carbon from the air: the sink-on-the-spot plankton plantation that moves decomposition into the thousand-year depths. Push-pull pumping for fertilization and sequestration is relatively low-tech and merely augments natural up- and downwelling processes.<br />
<br />
This idealized candidate has some unique advantages compared to current climate strategies: It is big, quick, and secure. It is impervious to drought and holdout governments. It does not compete for land, fresh water, fuel, or electricity. By bringing up cold water from the depths and sinking warm surface water into the thousand-year depths, it cools the ocean surface regionally. And there is a “cognitive carrot,” an immediate payoff every year (fish catch<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup>, cooling hurricane paths<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">9a</sup>) while growing the climate fix (the 600 GtC emergency draw down).<br />
<br />
The idealized example intentionally uses technologies that are too old or simple to be patentable. The industries most likely to benefit would be fishing and the offshore services presently associated with oil and gas platforms.<br />
<br />
It is against such advantages that we must judge the potential downsides<sup style="border: 0px; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">5</sup>. Concerns voiced thus far include:<br />
<ol>
<li><i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Could we get international agreement fast enough? </i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Continental shelves in the most productive latitudes belong to relatively wealthy countries. Their independent initiatives could quickly establish many plankton plantations just inside the shelf without new treaties.</span></li>
<li><i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Won’t it pollute?</i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Perhaps not as proposed here, using local algae and nutrients in a vertical loop, but the usual considerations would apply should we want to introduce exotic or modified algal species to achieve even higher rates of sinking potential CO</span><sub style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. Toxic blooms are possible during productivity transitions. With floating enclosures rather than plumes, this would change.</span></li>
<li><i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Won’t anoxic “dead zones” form? </i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shallow continental shelf sites should be avoided because hypoxia will occur from the decomposition of the downwelled carbon soup in a restricted volume. Fish kills occur when anoxia develops more quickly than fish can find their way out of the increasingly hypoxic zone. However, a maintained hypoxic zone will mostly repel fish from entering.</span></li>
<li><i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We don’t know what will happen.</i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The novelty here is minimal, even less than for iron fertilization. Fertilizing and sinking surface waters merely mimics, albeit in new locations or new seasons, those frequently studied natural processes seen on a large scale in winter mixing and in ocean up- and downwelling. There is also prehistorical precedent. The 80 ppm drawdown of atmospheric CO</span><sub style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> in the last four ice ages is thought to have occurred via enhanced surface productivity, triggered by a major reduction in the Antarctic offshore downwelling</span><sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">27 </sup><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">that re-sinks nutrient-rich waters brought to the surface in high latitudes by the circumpolar winds.</span></li>
<li><i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Won’t this just move the ocean acidification problem into the depths?</i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Since the depths are 98% of ocean volume, there is a fifty-fold dilution of the acidity. Were countering out-of-control emissions to continue for a century, depth acidification might be more of a problem.</span></li>
<li><i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pumping up will just bring up water with higher CO<sub style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub> than in the surface waters. </i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A depth difference</span><sup style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: top;">10</sup><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> of 40 μmol/kg means that upwelling a cubic meter of seawater brings up an unwanted 0.48 g of inorganic carbon. The resulting fertilization will take that CO</span><sub style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> (and more) out of the surface ocean. Also, pumping down the same volume sinks 1 g of potential CO</span><sub style="border: 0px; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2</sub><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> as DOC, even without fertilization.</span></li>
<li><i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Aren't you going to run out of phosphate, what currently limits the global ocean productivity to a fraction of its capacity? </span></i><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Up-pump pipes could be sited to bring up bottom waters from the southern oceans that are currently rich in phosphate.</span></li>
</ol>
<b>A Second Manhattan Project</b><br />
<br />
Though these objections do not seem insurmountable good reasons usually arise for not implementing most such projects <i style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">as initially proposed</i>.<br />
<br />
This idealized push-pull ocean pumps proposal is meant to give a concrete example, easy to remember, that defines the response ballpark by being big, quick, secure, powered by clean sources, and inexpensive enough so that a country can implement it on its own continental shelf without endless international conferences. Other drawdown schemes—say, floating enclosures or wave-driven circulating cells — need to pass those same tests.<br />
<br />
To do the planning job right is going to take a Second Manhattan Project of various experts to design cleanup candidates and evaluate their side effects. Lend them Los Alamos and let the Pentagon buy them what they need with wartime priorities. To field test their plantation designs, let them instrument the many abandoned oil platforms in the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Then quickly deploy the best designs, using the abilities of the offshore services industry.<br />
<br />
Aim to accomplish all this in the four year time frame of the original Manhattan Project. Ten years after that, the cleanup job should be half done, and without all of the economic pain of a quick (and ineffective) shutdown of fossil fuel use. At the beginning of World War II, Franklin D. Roosevelt used the metaphor of a “four alarm fire up the street” that had to be extinguished immediately, whatever the cost. Our need for fast action on climate deterioration requires devoting the resources necessary to radically shorten the developmental cycle for all carbon burial projects. We dare not wait until we are weakened before undertaking emergency climate repairs. Our ability to avoid a human population crash will be compromised if economies become fragile or if international cooperation is lost via conflicts. A serious jolt—say, a major rearrangement of the winds—could cause catastrophic crop failures and food riots within several years, creating global waves of climate refugees with the attendant famine, pestilence, war, and genocide.<br />
<br />
Acquiescing in a slower approach to climate is, in effect, playing Russian roulette with the climate gun. The climate crisis needs wartime priorities now.<br />
<br />
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-41394753353266030422013-01-25T05:50:00.002-08:002022-08-01T22:40:57.627-07:00Coded modulation of computer climate models for the prediction of precipitation and other side-effects of marine cloud brightening<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">by Stephen Salter, University of Edinburgh, and Alan Gadian, University of Leeds.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Background</b></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">In 1990 John Latham [1] suggested that the Twomey effect [2] [3] could be used to slow or reverse global warming by increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Reflectivity depends on the size distribution of drops. For the same amount of liquid water a large number of small drops is whiter than a smaller number of big ones. Latham suggested the release of submicron drops of filtered sea water into the marine boundary layer below or near mid-oceanic stratocumulus clouds in regions where the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei is low and cloud drops are large. Evaporation would produce salt residues which are excellent cloud condensation nuclei. Turbulence would disperse them through the marine boundary layer. They would increase the number but reduce the size of drops in the cloud. Twomey suggested that, for many cloud conditions, a doubling of the number of nuclei would increase cloud top reflectivity by about 0.058.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Several independent climate models [4], [5], [6], show that the amount of spray that would be needed to reverse the thermal effects of changes since pre-industrial times is quite small, of the order of 10 cubic metres a second for the whole world. The thermal effects of double preindustrial CO2 concentration would still be manageable. Furthermore the technique intercepts heat flowing from the tropics to the poles and so cools them no matter where the spraying is done. It should therefore be possible to preserve Arctic ice. Local control and rapid response may allow thermal protection of coral reefs. Design of wind-driven vessels and spray equipment is well advanced [7].</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The aim of this proposal is to identify and quantify potential side-effects of marine cloud brightening. We want to produce an everywhere-to-everywhere transfer-function of spray quantity with regard to temperature, precipitation, polar ice, snow cover and vegetation using several leading climate models in parallel. This should especially show the times and places at which spraying should NOT be done. The technique involves changing the concentration of condensation nuclei at many spray regions round the world according to coded sequences unique to each region and correlating this sequence with model results at observing stations round the world. A first test on a set of 16 artificial changes with different magnitudes to a real 20-year temperature record showed that the magnitude of each change could be detected to 1% or 2% of the standard deviation. This is better than many thermometers. Confidence has been boosted by the PhD project carried out by Ben Parkes at Leeds who has shown that the effects on precipitation are bi-directional.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The technique may let us steer towards beneficial climate patterns if only the world community can agree what these are.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The differences between climate models may point to general model improvements for which there is plenty of room.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">As well as humanitarian benefits the project may lead to better understanding of atmospheric physics and teleconnections.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Previous work</b></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">One of the early attempts at the identification of side effects was in 2009 by Jones, Haywood and Boucher of the Hadley Centre [8]. They picked three regions representing only 3.3% of the world ocean area and raised the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei to 375 per cubic centimetre everywhere in the regions from initial values of 50 to 300. The regions were off California, off Peru and off Angola / Namibia. These are labelled NP for North Pacific, SP for South Pacific and SA for south Atlantic in figure 1, top left. These areas usually have good conditions for cloud cover and solar input. Parts close to the coast have rather high nuclei concentrations. They are good but by no means the only suitable sites for cloud spraying. The increased nuclei concentration was held steady regardless of summer/winter, monsoons or the phase of the el Nino Southern oscillation. The resulting global cooling for the separate regions was 0.45, 0.52, and 0.34 watts per square metre giving a mean annual total of 1.31 watts per square metre. However if all of the regions sprayed together all of the time the 3.3% of ocean area would cool a little less, 0.97 watts per square metre. Even the lower amount of cooling would be a substantial fraction of the widely-accepted increase of 1.6 watts per square metre since preindustrial times.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Present global climate models are good at predicting temperature but are less accurate for precipitation, ice and snow. They cannot predict cloud cover, hurricanes or flood events. Climate change with no geo-engineering is already producing extremes floods in Pakistan and Queensland with droughts in South Australia, the Horn of Africa and the United States.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The Jones, Hayward and Boucher results show that albedo control can both increase and reduce precipitation far from the spray source, even in the opposite hemisphere. Spray from California (NP) shown in the top right of the figure can nearly double rainfall in South Australia. Angola/Namibia (SA) give a useful increase, lower left, in Ethiopia, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. But most attention was given to the 15% reduction over the Amazon. Perhaps Brazilians watching recent television footage of dying children in Ethiopia and Sudan would be glad to have their own rainfall reduced to 2000 mm a year when necessary.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4FvUP6oRzdc/UQI2wGmlM4I/AAAAAAAAI28/K0NNK83ANC4/s1600/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" height="334" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4FvUP6oRzdc/UQI2wGmlM4I/AAAAAAAAI28/K0NNK83ANC4/s640/1.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px;"><i>Figure 1. The separate effects of the spray regions in Jones Haywood and Boucher 2009.</i></td></tr>
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<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UwGR-3j_hlg/UQI3Hc8gLZI/AAAAAAAAI3E/6XQ_FuNhb-A/s1600/2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UwGR-3j_hlg/UQI3Hc8gLZI/AAAAAAAAI3E/6XQ_FuNhb-A/s1600/2.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px;"><i>Figure 2. The combined effect of all three spray sources of figure 1. This slide appeared on its own with no indication of the spray regions used and could imply that Amazon drying is the result of spray anywhere.</i></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">If all three regions in figure 1 spray simultaneously and continuously we get the result in figure 2. The combination is not the sum of the parts. The reduction in the Amazon is there but less marked. There are useful increases in Australia and in the Horn of Africa. The reduction in precipitation in South West Africa caused by the South Atlantic spray region has vanished. Jones et al. did not test other source positions, spray rates or seasonal variations relative to the monsoons.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">More recent work by Gadian and Parkes at Leeds [9] used the coded modulation of the nuclei concentration of 89 spray sources of roughly equal area round all the oceans. They then correlated the individual sequences with the resulting weather records round the world. The modulation was done by multiplying or dividing initial nuclei concentration values by a factor chosen initially as 1.5. Because of the logarithmic behaviour of the Twomey equation this alternation should have had a low overall effect. The factor of 1.5 is a much weaker stimulus than an increase of 50 to 375 nuclei per cubic centimetre which would increase reflectivity by 0.168.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SNUVT4oWCRk/UQI3bZmvSVI/AAAAAAAAI3M/gv8fi_f5VgE/s1600/3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SNUVT4oWCRk/UQI3bZmvSVI/AAAAAAAAI3M/gv8fi_f5VgE/s1600/3.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px;"><i>Figure 3. An example of the effect of all spray regions on two places in the Amazon. Drying from spray in the South Atlantic as predicted by the Hadley Centre is evident but could easily be countered by spray from many other regions, especially from south of the Aleutians.</i></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The results in figure 3 show that, as well as the spray sources used by Jones et al., there are many other spray sources which will either increase or reduce precipitation in the Amazon. The two regions in the Amazon basin are shown black. Red shows sites which would increase precipitation at the black site and blue shows a reduction. The Amazon increases from the red spray sources off California and Peru are in agreement with the 2009 Hadley Centre result. The strongest blue in (b) off Namibia and the weaker blue off Angola in (a) are also in agreement. But the great majority of spray sites, particularly the one in (b) off Recife, show increases in the Amazon precipitation. The analysis will show maps like these for every observing station of interest. This could amount to many hundred maps depending on the resolving power of the climate models.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">It is also possible to show the transfer function of each spray site on target regions on land all round the world. Figure 4 shows a sweep of spray sources along the east sides of the North and South Atlantic. There are alternating effects in South America and Australia. Spraying between the English Channel and Labrador has little effect in the Amazon or Australia but the next region south increases rain in both. The Atlantic coast off Mauritania further increases Amazon precipitation, gives weaker precipitation in eastern Australia but dries the west. A block from Liberia to Nigeria has little effect on either the Amazon or Australia but is close to where hurricanes begin. Angola confirms the Hadley centre drying of the south Amazon but not the north. Namibia reverses this. Spray off the Cape of Good Hope increases rainfall both regions of the Amazon but the effect fades as we spray from further south. Spray further south increase rain in the Indian sub-continent and Japan.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The maximum swings are 0.0006 mm per day for each percentage variation of the initial nuclei concentration. This means that for the 100% nuclei increase needed to give a reflectivity increase of 0.057, the annual precipitation change would be 0.0006 x 365 x 100 mm = 21.9 mm per year. This is much smaller than precipitation changes indicated by the Hadley Centre but the size of individual spray regions is somewhat lower. The Hadley Centre increase from 50 per cubic centimetre in a clean spray region to 375 is a much stronger stimulus by a factor of 15 and a reflectivity increase of 0.168. The offshore edge of the Hadley test regions would have presented an impossibly high slope of nuclei concentration. Perhaps climate systems react just as badly to sharp changes as engineering components under stress.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The full Parkes thesis can be downloaded from [9]</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ejNi4cj25GU/UQI3w5DRcYI/AAAAAAAAI3U/n7rFAPoPz-w/s1600/4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ejNi4cj25GU/UQI3w5DRcYI/AAAAAAAAI3U/n7rFAPoPz-w/s640/4.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="512" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px;"><i>Figure 4. A sweep of spray regions along the east side of North and South Atlantic show cyclical effects on precipitation in South America and Australia. Ben Parkes’ work provides 89 such maps.</i></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The symbols in figure 4 show the scatter of precipitation results from 8 runs with different sequences from 89 spray sites on the Arabian region. Blue bars show standard deviations. A low scatter implies reliable operation of the technique but is not universal. While the general trend is towards slightly more precipitation, there are changes in both directions with less scatter in the wetter direction.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VL9zrtrtsbA/UQI3_Yy8hzI/AAAAAAAAI3c/BwyXCwnZH2s/s1600/5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VL9zrtrtsbA/UQI3_Yy8hzI/AAAAAAAAI3c/BwyXCwnZH2s/s1600/5.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px;"><i>Figure 5. If the results of perturbations from separate runs with different code sequences show a large scatter we can deduce that the technique is not working well for that combination of source and observing station.</i></td></tr>
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<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Work programme</span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Because of the poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and in the absence of any better prediction method, we want to use a multiple approach with at least five different climate models driven by different research groups attempting the same jointly agreed objectives but with some freedom to follow interesting results. Suggestions for the central questions which should be tackled by all groups are as follows. They must be debated and approved but then adhered to.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Correlation lag.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> The changes to weather are not immediate so we should include a time lag between the release and the autocorrelation period. There may also be several time lags with different durations. We can make good estimates by choosing a plausible guess for the response period, driving all or a subset of spray sources in unison to add a sinusoidal component at that period to the nuclei concentration, running the climate model, subtracting the mean offset at each observing station round the world and multiplying the mean response by the sine and cosine signals. This will produce two offset means. The tangent of the phase lag of the response at each observing station will be the cosine offset divided by the sine offset. Repeating the process for various periods will allow the choice of correlation lag for each observing station. The amplitude and phase of the response as a function for period will give an interesting insight into the important climate system processes but does not allow the separation of effects from individual spray sources as is possible with coded modulation.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Coded modulation sequences.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> Random number generators can, by chance, produce short groups with abnormal auto-correlation. Andrew Jarvis at Lancaster can give sequences without these. When God made random sequences He made a great many so we can all use different ones but it will be interesting to compare results of the same sets of sequences in different models.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Change-over period.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> The encoding sequence can be seen as a series of coin tosses. Each toss decides whether the spray/not spray mode should be reversed or left alone. If the coin is tossed too frequently then the weather system will not have time to respond. But, if the intervals are too long, the length of the computer run needed to get a reasonably low scatter will be expensive. Perhaps initially the very shortest change-over period should be about the time for which reliable forecasts can be made, perhaps ten days. At each possible change-over period there will be a 50% chance of no change and a 25% chance of getting three ‘no-change’ events in a row and so on. Carbon emissions vary over a weekly cycle and the release of decay gases and di-methyl sulphide from seaweed can be related to the 28 day tidal cycle so we must avoid being phase-locked to these periods. Parkes used a change-over period of 10 days for computational efficiency and a case can be made for 20 days. We should later extend the changeover period but not to the point where too many changes spread across a monsoon period.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Monsoon season.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> All the work so far has used continuous spray through the year. It might occur to even a naïve engineering person that the monsoon seasons could possibly have an effect on patterns of precipitation and evaporation. This means that we should do separate correlations and calculate separate transfer functions according to the monsoon phase. If the technique shows promise and computing time is available we may be able to resolve transfer functions down to monthly levels provided that we can get resources to allow the use of high resolution models.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Spray amplitude.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> The susceptibility of an ocean spray region is a function of low cloud, clean air incoming solar energy and perhaps wind to drive spray vessels and disperse spray. Large spray volumes in what initially appear to be regions of high susceptibility will reduce that susceptibility. A lower dose over a wider region will be more effective. Multiplying and dividing the initial nuclei concentration value by 1.5 was quite small but we do not know that it is the best choice. A sweep over multiplying and dividing amplitudes from 1.25, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4.5 will help us choose the best spray amplitude(s) for later work.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Spray asymmetry.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> The Twomey results can be condensed into an equation which says that the change in reflectivity is 1/12 of the natural log of the ratio of nuclei concentration. The log term led to the decision to multiply and divide initial nuclei concentration values by a constant rather than by the usual addition of some chosen amount. It was intended to cancel the mean thermal effects in other regions. However it may be that the multiplier should not be exactly equal to the divider. We need to establish the best numbers to use for the lowest external interference so as to minimise interference between regions. A possible method might be to use results of the sinusoidal modulation. Any departure from a sinusoidal wave form produces harmonics which can be detected by multiplying the signal minus its mean by the sine and cosine of 2, 3, 4 etc. times the fundamental.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Spray concentration profile.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> While time constraints forced Parkes to use blocks of spray with sharp edges it would be more realistic to have smoother variations of nuclei concentration, perhaps with the bell-shaped Gaussian concentration.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Number and position of spray sources.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> The Parkes choice of 89 spray regions was not made with any great confidence. We wanted at least two across the narrow section of the Atlantic. Parkes started with equal areas but then divided them round the Caribbean and either side of Iceland because of the current patterns. Some climate models show strange alterations either side of the equator in the Pacific. There is no need for spray regions to have equal areas provided that we can give each an appropriate weighting. There is no need for everyone to use the same regions provided that research result maps (discussed later) can give a common presentation. Individual selections should be encouraged and results merged to avoid blocky results.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Regions might be merged if there is little difference between their susceptibilities or divided if differences between adjacent neighbours are large provided that the spray regions are large enough to produce a consistent forcing over several grid points.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Region grouping.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> It is well known that climate patterns all over the world are affected by temperature differences across the South Pacific, not always to advantage. It will be interesting to drive the cloud nuclei concentration differentially either side of the Pacific with code sequences of each side in unison in a number of coherent ways. Two obvious ones are first an equal 50/50 east/west split with a sharp divide, secondly a linear ramp with concentration depending on distance either side of the midline and thirdly a blend of positive and negative Gaussian distributions. Other Boolean combinations of spray regions can be chosen but with the risk that this could lead to a combinatorial explosion of possibilities and so we need careful planning.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Tactical spraying.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> There is no need for spray rates to be preordained and fixed for a whole experiment. For example if we see that surface temperatures in the Pacific are forming an el Niño or la Niña pattern and we know the cooling power of world spray sites, even ones far from the Pacific, we can drive them so as to increase or reduce the Southern Oscillation. The spray can be in phase with the temperature anomaly or its rate of change or even at some other phase angle. The orientation of the jet-stream waves might be a powerful indicator. A force opposing change of position of a system, ie. a spring, will increase its oscillation frequency. Control engineers know that very small amounts of damping (a force opposing velocity) or its opposite, can have very large effects on the growth or decay of oscillations. We like error sensors and actuators with a high frequency-response and low phase-shift. Tropospheric cloud albedo control has an attractively rapid response – a few days compared with stratospheric sulphur at low latitudes which is about two years. With sufficiently high resolution we may also detect early signs of hurricane formation.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Ganging up.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> We may learn something about the climate system by using independent spray patterns to identify all the spray regions which have the same effect on one observation station, such as drying Queensland, and then driving then in unison. We then reverse the selection to all the spray regions which increase Queensland precipitation.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Map projections.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> The site http://egsc.usgs.gov/isb/pubs/MapProjections/projections.html gives a useful selection and explanation of map projections. All projections of a solid globe to a flat plane involve some distortions but we can choose between distorting area, direction, shape or distances at various places in the map. The Mercator projection is very common but produces gross distortion of east/west distances and areas at the high latitudes which are now seen to be of very great importance to climate change. For polar areas the Lambert azimuthal equal-area projection looks best. We can tilt this projection in other directions so that several images can show the whole world with acceptable distortion. The obvious starting one would be six Lambert azimuthal views, two from the poles and four from the equator at longitudes of 0, 90, 180 and 270 degrees and an option to set any other latitude and longitude for any other view. It can be very useful to have a transparent layer of one parameter laid over another but this will need coordination of page layout. Six 90 mm diameter circles on a 100 mm pitch can fit neatly on one page of A4 or letter page with room for arrows to adjacent balloons. If necessary we can fit 12 on an A3. A single 180 mm circle can be used to show finer detail. The modelling teams must consider the question carefully, come to a joint view and then stick to the common decision and page scale.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Solid modelling packages (e.g. SolidWorks) are increasingly common for engineering design and several offer free viewing software to let customers spin images of engineering components about any axis. A spinning image can give a good presentation of complex three-dimensional shapes. It should be possible to modify software to give surface colours with 10 saturation levels and text to regions of a spinning sphere.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Mapping contours.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> Result maps need to show the magnitude and slope of at least temperature, precipitation, evaporation ice and snow cover. While a continuous rainbow spectrum looks beautiful and gives a superficial impression of work done it is almost useless at providing any numerical information beyond the position of a peak. There are some meteorological result maps which have colour allocations that are particularly unhelpful, for example the one below.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 4px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kzKxVXA93o4/UQI4TeLVNQI/AAAAAAAAI3k/vRlV151oLmU/s1600/6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kzKxVXA93o4/UQI4TeLVNQI/AAAAAAAAI3k/vRlV151oLmU/s1600/6.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px;"><i>Figure 6. How not to display the results of a climate model. The lead author of the paper from which this figure was taken agrees with me but was unable to challenge official policy. No names no pack-drill. Result format for this project may be dictatorial but will be more intelligent.</i></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The area of ‘no change’ is between the lighter buff colour and the darker green. It covers a large fraction of the map. The polarity of the contour gradient is not obvious where light green moves to cyan or the darker buff moves to orange. Light green is a stronger effect than dark green. Numbers on the colour code bar refer to the borders not the middle of contours. Readers may confuse this map for precipitation with another map for temperature which uses the same colour set.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The right presentation of results can reveal the reasons for the most peculiar phenomena. We must make it as quick and as easy as possible for lazy, tired, non-technical readers to see effects with the minimum of mental decoding effort even when they are looking at a great many different maps.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The first requirement is that areas with effects that are below the level of statistical significance or the middle of the range should be white. Either side of this region there should be just two colours with increasing saturation. Red and blue would be intuitive for temperature with green and brown for river runoff. The male human eye can reliably distinguish 10 saturation levels provided regions are in contact with sharp edges. (Females have higher discrimination.) This gives a range of 20 steps (more than most result maps) plus a white central zero for the mean or the anomaly reference. The steps give an obvious direction of gradients. Adults, babies, birds and many animals can count up to five in an instant ‘analogue’ way. If we have thin black contour lines between the lowest five saturation steps and thin white lines between each of the top five colours we can avoid getting lost. We can also include black or white text numbers to show the contour value and total area of the contour region. An example is shown below.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br />
<div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hNYyzrs4UnM/UQI4kFeX5YI/AAAAAAAAI3s/5K4zsPILuH0/s1600/7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" height="182" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hNYyzrs4UnM/UQI4kFeX5YI/AAAAAAAAI3s/5K4zsPILuH0/s640/7.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" width="640" /></a></div>
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Astronomers developed a very powerful technique to detect changes in the position or brightness of astronomical objects. Two images of star fields containing thousands of objects, taken at different times but with exactly the same magnification, would be shown alternately at intervals of about one second. A change in any one of them would be immediately apparent. We can adapt this for use with PowerPoint images to detect small differences in maps of model results provided that we can standardise the presentation format across all groups. We can also flicker through a sweep of many small changes in time or nuclei concentration.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Reports should have verbose comments and complete meta-data close to each map with minimum risk of confusion between them. This means frequent repetition and no jumps to other pages, or even other journals as is sometimes done. The clarity of caption wording should be tested by naive readers, rather than the intimidatory style of many journals.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Results can be presented as absolute values or as anomalies from some agreed reference baseline. We must agree on a small selection of base lines such as preindustrial, 1960-90, present, x 2 preindustrial CO2 or one of the, now discredited, IPPC scenarios. We must also be able to show instantly the differences between sets of results from different codes or institutions such as Pacific North-Western minus Hadley Centre. We must be able to combine results with various weightings from different teams. This will require an agreement between the teams of what the format should be, followed by their obedience to the agreement. It will be important to get advice from good information technology experts.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Blockiness.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> Because of pressure of time the Parkes thesis results were presented as blocks with sharp edges which are unusual in meteorology except for either sides of mountain ranges or places like the Cape of Good Hope. We should agree on a method to produce smoothly blended curves for both spray concentration regions and results.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Naming of sea areas.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> We must make it easy for people to know which of many possible spray regions are being discussed even if they are not the same as the original Parkes 89. One way is to pick a spot at the centroid of an ocean and then give the bearing and distance of a spray region under discussion in terms of the bearing and distance from the ocean centroid. Two digits are enough to identify runways at airports and most regions will be larger than 100 kilometres or a few model grid points so, for example, we could use a description such as South Pacific 18, 30 for a spray region 3000 kilometres south of the ocean centroid.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Numerical data.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> If we want daily results of 4 parameters affected by 100 spray regions for 500 different observing stations over 20 years with two-byte precision we will have to access nearly a Terabyte of information. Requirements are unlikely to shrink. We want this to be made freely accessible to anyone. We need verbose and intuitive labels and selection filters with same look and feel from all modelling groups. Subsets should be available in a widely used format, agreed by all teams such as netCDF and GrADS. People should normally supply numerical results in a common, agreed and widely-used format. If other formats have to be used then the teams should provide conversion software or do the conversions themselves on request.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Carbon dioxide variation.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> We should first test the technique with an agreed level of atmospheric greenhouse gases. If we can establish confidence in the coded modulation technique we can later experiment with changes to gas concentrations. Obvious ones are pre-industrial, double pre-industrial, ramped rises at various rates, methane burps and even the effects of plausible rates of CO2 removal. However access to present real observations will be useful and so there is a strong case for using present day gas concentrations unless there is a sudden need for work on methane burps.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Political information.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> Models will be able to produce results of several climate parameters of the effect of all the spray regions at places all round the world. There are many ways in which we could select target regions. One obvious one is the present political boundaries of 193 UN Member States. If a climate model has a resolution of one degree each cell has a side of 111 kilometres. It takes about eight points to draw a convincing sine wave so the size of result contour will be larger than the smaller countries. This means that some of the smallest ones will have to be grouped. This could be a matter requiring some delicacy. For large or elongated countries we can subdivide the area such as either side of a mountain range or north and south for countries in the Sahel. This would allow each country to choose which spray regions and times would give it the maximum benefit with the least dis-benefit to others. It might then be possible to understand and maximise the winner-to-loser ratio and even to decide on compensation. It is defeatist to assume that the outcomes will inevitably be unfavourable. The results of any pair of parameters predicted by each climate model for each country can be shown by plotting the model name on a map with, say, the vertical coordinate being temperature and the horizontal coordinate being precipitation. A close clustering of results from different models will add confidence. We must resist the temptation to place models in rank order. The objective should be model improvement and good science can come by sometimes testing opposites.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Specific Questions</b></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">There is a grave risk of a combinatorial explosion suppressing the detection of differences between climate models and so initially we must agree on as many test conditions as possible. The following are suggestions for debate.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><ul style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What spray rates, change-over periods, concentration profiles and correlation delays should be used for commonly-agreed experiments?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What level of scatter will still allow us to draw useful conclusions?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What level of model resolution should be used?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">How does scatter vary with the length of run?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">How does scatter vary with the size of target area?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Do we need to merge target areas?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">How does scatter vary with spray source and observing station?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What spray regions, spray rates and spray seasons will produce unacceptable changes?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Can scatter be low enough to allow seasonal or monthly transfer functions?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">How far does the Twomey log equation for nuclei-concentration to change-of-reflectivity hold?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What ratio of multiplier to divider will minimise interference between spray sources?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Negative modulations are easy in a computer model but less so in the real world. How does susceptibility vary if the modulation is asymmetric or is only positive?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">How does the susceptibility for temperature, precipitation and ice cover vary with the amplitude of the perturbation?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Will tactical variations based on day-to-day observations be useful for hurricanes and precipitation adjustment in both directions?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Are there large winner-to-loser ratios?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Can overall winner-to-loser ratios be minimized?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What other experiments do you suggest?</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">What is the probability that this project would improve the reliability of climate models?</li>
</ul>
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Milestones and Deliverables</span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><ul style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Agreement on result presentation, data format and low-level common analysis software packages.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Circulation and analysis of the existing Ben Parkes results.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Agreement on target parameters such as, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, ice, snow-line, vegetation and CO2 level.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Agreement between teams on timescales for deliverables.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Measurement of the phase and amplitude response to allow choices of correlation lags.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Maps of spray site susceptibility, defined as the annual change of each result parameter per unit of spray volume.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">As above with spraying adjusted with a selection of correlations linked to the monsoon seasons. Even if the computer models cannot detect the onset of a monsoon we can use historic records to pick dates.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Investigation of tactical spray rate variation.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Results for groups of spray regions working in unison or subtle harmony especially with Trans-Pacific amplification and attenuation of el Niño / la Niña oscillations.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Design of a world-wide spray plan to cool the planet with the minimum winner/loser ratio.</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the various climate models leading to suggestions for improvement.</li>
</ul>
<br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Chaos</span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Objectors to cloud albedo control have argued that the climate system is chaotic and so nothing can be done to direct it. There have been a great many phenomena such as planetary motions, chemical reactions, the incidence of disease and the motions of sea waves which were thought to be chaotic by the leading thinkers of the day. But Kepler showed that elliptical planetary orbits followed rules more precise than any man-made machinery. Mendeleev produced his periodic table and was able to predict the properties of hitherto unknown elements. Pasteur developed germ theory. Test tanks can now produce complex sea states with repeatability of a few parts per thousand. An oscilloscope signal from any backplane connector of a computer appears to be entirely random string of zeros and ones but is in fact one of the most highly defined sequences that we can produce.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">A favourite demonstration of chaotic behaviour uses the fall of sheets of paper from above the demonstrator’s head. The smallest increase of the angle of incidence between the paper and the apparent airflow produces a pitching moment to increase its value up to the moment of stall. Sheets will be scattered over a wide area. But if a sheets of paper is folded in the form of a paper dart to increase stiffness, and a weight is added to the nose then the area enclosing its falling positions is greatly reduced. Clearly the magnitude of chaos is variable and can be affected by small changes to engineering design. The scatter could be further reduced if the falling item was fitted with optical systems driving control surfaces. We could call it a GBU 12 Paveway bomb which has an accuracy of about one metre despite chaotically random cross winds. Similarly we could fit video cameras and hinge actuators to the nails of Galton’s bagatelle board.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">There may really be systems such as turbulence and subatomic physics which are genuinely chaotic. But if we believe that systems which we cannot at present understand are chaotic then we remove completely our chances of scientific discovery. The common factor is that very small changes, like the angle of incidence of a sheet of paper, are amplified. This means that small amount of input energy applied intelligently can produce large changes in output energy. That is just what we need to control the very large amounts of energy in the planetary climate. Apparent chaos implies the possibility of success. Coded modulations could give valuable insights into the climate system as well as saving world food supplies.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: medium;"><b>Conclusions</b></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The world can be compared to a vehicle with free-castor wheels which is rolling down a hill with increasing gradient. A few passengers are warning that there may be a cliff edge somewhere ahead. Some are suggesting that there might just be time to design and fit brakes, steering and even a reverse gear. Others advise that the slope ahead might level off and so brakes and steering would be a waste of money. Some objectors complain that the passengers could never agree on the best direction to steer. Some are close to claiming that God wants humanity to drive over the cliff edge and that it is wrong to interfere with divine intentions.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">We could also consider the climate system as a piano in which the spray regions are the keys, some black some white, on which a wide number of pleasant (or less unpleasant) tunes could be played if a pianist knew when and how hard to strike each key.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">References</span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">1. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Latham J.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 1990 Control of global warming? Nature vol no 6291 pp 347 339-340.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">2. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Twomey, S.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 1977 Influence of pollution on the short-wave albedo of clouds.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1149–1152. doi:10.1175/1520-0469</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">3. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Schwartz, S. E. & Slingo, A.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 1996 Enhanced shortwave radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols. In Clouds chemistry and climate (eds P. Crutzen & V. Ramanathan), pp. 191–236. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">4. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Latham J, Rasch P, Chen C-C, Kettles L, Gadian A, Gettelman A, Morrison H, Bower K, Choularton T. </b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">2008.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Global temperature stabilization via controlled albedo enhancement of low-level maritime clouds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 366(1882): 3969–3987.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">5. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Rasch PJ , Latham J, Chen CC,</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 2009. Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) 045112 (8pp) doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045112.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">6. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Latham J, Bower K, Choularton T, Coe H, Connelly P, Cooper G, Craft T, Foster J, Gadian A, Galbraith L, Iacovides H, Johnston D, Launder B, Leslie B, Meyer J, Neukermans A, Ormond B, Parkes B, Rasch P, Rush J, Salter S, Stevenson T, Wang H, Wang Q, Wood R.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 2012. Marine cloud brightening. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 370: 4217–4262, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0086.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">7. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Salter S, Latham J, Sortino G.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 2008. Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming. Phil.Trans.Roy. Soc. A. Doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0136</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">8. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Jones A, Haywood J, Boucher O.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> 2009 Climate impacts of geoengineering marine stratocumulus clouds. Journal of Geophysical Research vol 114 D10106 . doi:10.1029/2008JD011450</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">9. </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Parkes B.</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> Climate Impacts of Marine Cloud Brightening. 2012 Ph D Thesis University of Leeds. From </span><a href="http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~eebjp/thesis/" style="background-color: white; color: #771000; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-decoration: initial;">http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~eebjp/thesis/</a>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-47288497118940801402013-01-05T21:04:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:41:40.648-07:00How to avoid mass-scale death, destruction and extinctionClimate change threatens to develops in four ways:<br />
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<li>Global warming</li>
<li>Accelerated warming in the Arctic</li>
<li>Runaway global warming</li>
<li>Extinction</li>
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Warming accelerates in the Arctic due to a number of feedbacks, ten of which are depicted in the <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html">Diagram of Doom</a>. <br />
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One of these feedbacks, methane releases from the Arctic seabed, constitutes a point-of-no-return, in that this threatens to trigger further releases in a vicious cycle that will escalate into runaway global warming. The combined impact of land degradation, storms and heatwaves will then cause crop and vegetation loss at unprecedented scale, resulting in mass death, destruction and extinction.<br />
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High food prices have been around for a few years, as illustrated by the <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation">FAO Food Price Index</a> below (see <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/12/how-to-avoid-mass-scale-death-destruction-and-extinction.html">interactive version of this image</a>).<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7WSkMX3YH_4/UOfh__4XeFI/AAAAAAAAIKM/ScVHGNL6NnU/s1600/27552365856.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7WSkMX3YH_4/UOfh__4XeFI/AAAAAAAAIKM/ScVHGNL6NnU/s1600/27552365856.png" /></a></div>
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The FAO, in its recent Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, explains that we can expect prices to rise, as illustrated below.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7_c4mLMvY3k/UOFZqjUDiOI/AAAAAAAAIBo/6b-ofBRnRas/s1600/834548976634896.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7_c4mLMvY3k/UOFZqjUDiOI/AAAAAAAAIBo/6b-ofBRnRas/s1600/834548976634896.jpg" /></a></div>
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The <a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings.aspx">Economic Research Service</a> of the U.S. Department of Agriculture mentions, in its Food Price Outlook, 2012-2013, that the "drought has affected prices for corn and soybeans as well as other field crops which should, in turn, drive up retail food prices".<br />
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Global food supply is under stress as extreme weather becomes the new norm. Farmers may be inclined to respond to drought by overusing ground water, or by slashing and burning forest, in efforts to create more farmland. Such practices do not resolve the problems; instead, they tend to exacerbate the problems over time, making things progressively worse.<br />
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The diagram below shows that there are many climatological feedbacks (ten of which are named) that make climate change worse. At the top, the diagram pictures vicious cycles that are responses by farmers that can add to make the situation even worse. Without effective action, the prospect is that climate change and crop failure combine to cause mass death and destruction, with extinction becoming the fourth development of global warming.<br />
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How can we avoid that such a scenario will eventuate? Obviously, once we are in the fourth development, i.e. mass-scale famine and extintion, it will be too late for action. Similarly, if the world moves into the third development, i.e. runaway global warming, it will be hard, if not impossible to reverse such a development. Even if we act now, it will be hard to reverse the second development, i.e. accelerated warming in the Arctic.<br />
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The most effective action will target causes rather than symptoms of these developments.<br />
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<b>Part 1.</b> Since emissions are the cause of global warming, dramatic cuts in emissions should be included in the first part of the responses. In addition, action is needed to remove excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and oceans. Storing the carbon in the soil will also improve soil quality, as indicated by the long green arrow on the left.<br />
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<b>Part 2.</b> Solar radiation management is needed to cool the Arctic.<br />
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<b>Part 3.</b> Methane management and further action is needed, e.g. to avoid that methane levels will rise further in the Arctic, which threatens to trigger further releases and escalate into runaway global warming. Measures to reduce methane can also benefit soil quality worldwide, as indicated by the long green arrow on the right.<br />
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Thus, the proposed action tackles the prospect of mass death and extinction by increasing soil fertility, as illustrated by the image below. <br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0NxI907dKOA/UOfk7siP72I/AAAAAAAAIKc/KWS2OHoguuI/s1600/Diagram-of-Doom-and-responses-Jan-5-2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0NxI907dKOA/UOfk7siP72I/AAAAAAAAIKc/KWS2OHoguuI/s1600/Diagram-of-Doom-and-responses-Jan-5-2013.jpg" /></a></div>
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Depicted at the bottom of the image are the most effective policies to accomplish the goals set out in the proposed 3-part plan of action, i.e. feebates, preferably implemented locally. Cost associated with solar radiation management is relatively small, so relatively small fees, e.g. on commercial international flights could raise the necessary funding. Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-60527014671960563632012-11-29T19:02:00.002-08:002022-08-01T22:42:21.050-07:00A Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change<br />
<b>Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative</b><br />
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Climate change is strongly affecting the Arctic and the resulting changes to the polar vortex and jet stream are in turn contributing to extreme weather in many places, followed by crop loss at a huge scale.<br />
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The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in a <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/csdb/en/">September 6, 2012, forecast</a> that <i>continued deterioration of cereal crop prospects over the past two months, due to unfavourable weather conditions in a number of major producing regions, has led to a sharp cut in FAO’s world production forecast since the previous report in July.</i> <br />
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The bad news continues: <i>Based on the latest indications, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover fully the expected utilization in the 2012/13 marketing season, pointing to a larger drawdown of global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Among the major cereals, maize and wheat were the most affected by the worsening of weather conditions. </i><br />
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The image below is interactive at the <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/threat-to-global-food-supply-makes-comprehensive-action-imperative.html">original post</a> and shows the FAO Food Price Index (Cereals), up to and including August 2012.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GS7aFyN4yR4/ULhOem01zGI/AAAAAAAAHB8/pl7-148hb_I/s1600/623447859376.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GS7aFyN4yR4/ULhOem01zGI/AAAAAAAAHB8/pl7-148hb_I/s1600/623447859376.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>from: <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/threat-to-global-food-supply-makes-comprehensive-action-imperative.html">Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative</a></i></td></tr>
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Apart from crop yield, extreme weather is also affecting soils in various ways. Sustained drought can cause soils to lose much of their vegetation, making them more exposed to erosion by wind, while the occasional storms, flooding and torrential rain further contribute to erosion. Higher areas, such as hills, will be particularly vulnerable, but even in valleys a lack of trees and excessive irrigation can cause the water table to rise, bringing salt to the surface.<br />
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Fish are also under threat, in part due to ocean acidification. Of the carbon dioxide we're releasing into the atmosphere, about a third is (still) being absorbed by the oceans. Dr. Richard Feely, from NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, <a href="http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2010/origin-impacts-ocean-acidification">explains</a> that this has caused, over the last 200 years or so, about a 30% increase in the overall acidity of the oceans. This affects species that depend on a shell to survive. Studies by <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1291.html">Baumann (2011)</a> and <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1324.html">Frommel (2011)</a> indicate further that fish, in their egg and larval life stages, are seriously threatened by ocean acidification. This, in addition to warming seawater, overfishing, pollution and eutrification (dead zones), causes fish to lose habitat and is threatening major fish stock collapse.<br />
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Without action, this situation can only be expected to deteriorate further, while ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least <a href="http://interacademies.net/10878/13951.aspx">tens of thousands of years</a>. This means that, to save many marine species from extinction, geoengineering must be accepted as an essential part of the much-needed comprehensive plan of action.<br />
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Similarly, Arctic waters will continue to be exposed to warm water, causing further sea ice decline unless comprehensive action is taken that includes geoengineering methods to cool the Arctic. The threat that huge amounts of methane will be released from the warming Arctic seabed makes it imperative to prepare geo-engineering methods to respond to this threat and be ready for rapid deployment soon. <br />
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<b>How to avert an intensifying food crisis</b></div>
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</b>As extreme weather intensifies, the food crisis intensifies. Storms and floods do damage to crops and cause erosion of fertile topsoil, in turn causing further crop loss. Similarly, heatwaves, storms and wildfires do damage to crops and cause topsoil to be blown away, thus also causing erosion and further crop loss. Furthermore, they cause soot, dust and volitale organic compounds to settle on snow and ice, causing albdeo loss and further decline of snow and ice cover. <br />
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Extreme weather intensifies as the Arctic warms and the polar vortex and jet stream weaken, which is fueled by accelerated warming in the Arctic. There are at least <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html">ten feedbacks</a> that contribute to further acceleration of warming in the Arctic and without action the situation looks set to spiral away into runaway global warming, as illustrated by the image below. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Uzz_Ko9Glng/UHUFr2SiV2I/AAAAAAAAFWo/pWs6fnRGINs/s1600/Comprehensive-Plan-of-Action.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; color: #771000; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-decoration: initial;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Uzz_Ko9Glng/UHUFr2SiV2I/AAAAAAAAFWo/pWs6fnRGINs/s1600/Comprehensive-Plan-of-Action.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12px; text-align: center;"><i>Diagram of Doom, with Comprehensive Plan of Action added (credit: Sam Carana, October 9, 2012)</i></td></tr>
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To avert an intensifying global food crisis, a comprehensive plan of action is needed, as also indicated on the image. Such a plan should be comprehensive and consider action in the Arctic such as wetland management, ice thickening and methane management (methane removal through decomposition, capture and possibly extraction).<br />
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<b>A Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change</b></div>
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</b>A <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/comprehensive-plan-of-action.html">Comprehensive Plan of Action on Climate Change</a> needs to include policies to achieve a <a href="http://sustainable-economy.blogspot.com/2011/09/towards-sustainable-economy.html">sustainable economy</a>, as well as adaptation policies. <br />
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Such a comprehensive plan is best endorsed globally, e.g. through an international agreement building on the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal Accord. At the same time, the specific policies are best decided and implemented locally, e.g. by insisting that each nation reduces its CO2 emissions by a set annual percentage, and additionally removes a set annual amount of CO2 from the atmosphere and the oceans, followed by sequestration, proportionally to its current emissions. <br />
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Policy goals are most effectively achieved when policies are implemented locally and independently, with separate policies each addressing a specific shift that is needed in order to reach agreed targets. Each nation can work out what policies best fit their circumstances, as long as they each independently achieve agreed targets. <br />
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Cuts in CO2 emissions of 80% by 2020 can be achieved by implementing local policies focusing on specific sectors (such as energy production, transport, land use, waste, forestry, buildings, etc). <br />
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As an example, each nation could add <a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com.au/2008/10/removing-carbon-from-air-discovery.html">fees on jetfuel</a>. Where an airplane lands that comes from a nation that has failed to add sufficient fees, the nation where the airplane lands could impose supplementary fees and use the revenues to support methods that capture CO2 directly from ambient air. Such supplementary fees should be allowed to be imposed under international trade rules. <br />
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Some policies will need to continue beyond 2020, in order to bring down levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to their pre-industrial levels this century, i.e. getting CO2 in the atmosphere back to 280ppm, CH4 back to 700ppb and N2O back to 270ppb. Policies can be very effective when focusing on local sectors such as agriculture and buildings, while also supporting geo-engineering methods such as biochar, enhanced weathering and direct capture of carbon from ambient air. <br />
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In addition to such policies to achieve a sustainable economy and adaptation policies, further geo-engineering methods will be needed to avoid runaway warming, as indicated in the blue area of the image below.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3lFYQp7n2fM/ULr06w8nOBI/AAAAAAAAHDo/WtFTfyIBRg4/s1600/Comprehensive-Plan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3lFYQp7n2fM/ULr06w8nOBI/AAAAAAAAHDo/WtFTfyIBRg4/s1600/Comprehensive-Plan.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>Arctic Methane Management</b></div>
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At the <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/arctic-methane-management.html" style="text-align: start;">original post</a>, some of the areas in these images can be clicked on, for examples or more background. The box for Additional Arctic Methane Management on above image is further worked out in the image below, which highlights the need for geo-engineering methods that focus on methane, a component of the plan that needs to be given far more attention. Again, support for such methods could be agreed to proportionally to each nation's current emissions.</div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PX-uwWm9d3U/ULr3gR3PHnI/AAAAAAAAHEA/DPElF9TiTkg/s1600/Arctic-Methane-Management-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PX-uwWm9d3U/ULr3gR3PHnI/AAAAAAAAHEA/DPElF9TiTkg/s1600/Arctic-Methane-Management-2.jpg" /></a></div>
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Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-82932011498342200952012-05-11T04:54:00.002-07:002022-08-01T22:42:55.387-07:00Arctic - red alert!<br />
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<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-22296758830474077322012-04-21T00:51:00.002-07:002022-08-01T22:43:38.650-07:00Discussion: Should patent law apply to geo-engineering?<table bgcolor="ffffee" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
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UPDATE: The Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) project has cancelled its outdoor ‘1km testbed’ experiment.
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Nature News - 15 May 2012 - by Daniel Cressey<br />
Geoengineering experiment cancelled amid patent row.<br />
Balloon-based ‘testbed’ for climate-change mitigation abandoned<br />
<a href="http://www.nature.com/news/geoengineering-experiment-cancelled-amid-patent-row-1.10645" style="text-decoration: none;">http://www.nature.com/news/geoengineering-experiment-cancelled-amid-patent-row-1.10645</a><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">David Keith, a Harvard University professor and an adviser on energy to Microsoft founder Bill Gates, said he and his colleagues are researching whether the federal government could ban patents in the field of solar radiation, according to a </span><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=researcher-ban-patents-on-geoengineering-technology" style="background-color: white; color: #771100; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-decoration: none;">report in Scientific American</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">.</span><br />
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Some of his colleagues last week traveled to Washington, D.C., where they discussed whether the U.S. Patent Office could ban patents on the technology, Keith said.<br />
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"We think it's very dangerous for these solar radiation technologies, it's dangerous to have it be privatized," Keith said. "The core technologies need to be public domain."</div>
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As suggested by Sam Carana, a declaration of emergency, as called for by the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (<a href="http://ameg.me/" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">AMEG</a>), could be another way to deal with this issue.<br />
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A declaration of Emergency could give governments the power to overrule patents, where they stand in the way of fast-tracking geo-engineering projects proposed under emergency rules.Thus, patents <span style="background-color: transparent;">don't need to be banned, prohibited or taken away; instead, patents will continue to apply in all situations other than the emergency situation, while new patents could also continue to be lodged during the emergency period.</span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Even where patents are directly applicable to proposed projects, patent law would still continue to apply; the emergency rules would merely allow governments to proceed in specific situations, avoiding that projects are being held up by legal action, exorbitant prices or withholding of crucial information.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">A declaration of emergency could also speed up projects by removing the need to comply with all kinds of time-consuming bureaucratic procedures, such as the need to get formal approvals and permits from various departments, etc. This brings us to the need to comply with international protocols and agreements. If declared internationally, a declaration of emergency could overrule parts of such agreements where they pose unacceptable delays and cannot be resolved through diplomacy.</span>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The issue is also discussed <a href="http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering/browse_thread/thread/44b3944bdd0c61ff" style="background-color: white; color: #771100; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-decoration: none;">here</a> and <a href="http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering/browse_thread/thread/9ee414451dfc4f8a?hl=en" style="background-color: white; color: #771100; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-decoration: none;">here</a> at the Geoengineering group at Google.</span>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-40116650552984156842012-03-09T04:27:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:44:25.677-07:00The Case for Emergency Geo-Engineering to save the Arctic from Collapse<strong style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #231f20; font-family: 'Myriad Pro', Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">An APPCCG Event:</strong><br />
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<strong style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">The Case for Emergency Geo-Engineering to save the Arctic from Collapse</strong></div>
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<strong style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">WHEN: Tuesday, 13th March, 1:00 - 2:30 pm</strong><br />
<strong style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">WHERE: Committee Room 8, House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA</strong></div>
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Please enter by St. Stephen’s Gate, and allow about 15 minutes to pass through security. <br />
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If you would like to attend this meeting, please contact Neha Sethi at the APPCCG Secretariat on <a href="mailto:climatechangegroup@carbonneutral.com" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #5c7b8e; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none;">climatechangegroup@carbonneutral.com</a> or tel: +44 (0) 20 7833 6035.<br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">You are invited to attend this APPCCG event with the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG), an NGO founded in October 2011 and supported by world renowned scientists. </span></div>
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AMEG will set before the APPCCG new evidence that shows that because of rising sea and air temperatures the Arctic is in a state of rapid collapse, with a high probability that the Arctic will be completely ice-free at its summer minimum as early as 2013 and having no sea-ice in the Arctic for six months of the year by 2018-20.</div>
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At the same time, thawing and release of previously frozen methane previously trapped under the Arctic sea bed and in the surrounding tundra, is also increasing alarmingly, a process that will accelerate as the Arctic sea responds to the loss of sea-ice protection. </div>
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Evidence will be presented of what is actually happening in the Arctic, in regard to the reduction of the ice sheet, the rate of methane release and details of the basic driving mechanisms in the form of warming ocean currents and increasing solar absorption in the region.</div>
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The meeting will also focus on the possible ways of halting this process and managing the level of the solar radiation currently reaching the Arctic, and will explore the challenges inherent in applying the technology in one of the most inhospitable regions on Earth.</div>
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Panellists will include:<br />
• Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge<br />
• John Nissen, Chairman of AMEG<br />
• Stephen Salter, Professor of Engineering Design, Edinburgh<br />
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The panel discussion will be followed by a question and answer session. </div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG)</span><br />
<a href="http://www.imeche.org/Libraries/Knowledge-Power/Update_from_the_All_Party_Parliamentary_Climate_Change_Group.sflb.ashx" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">http://www.imeche.org/Libraries/Knowledge-Power/Update_from_the_All_Party_Parliamentary_Climate_Change_Group.sflb.ashx</a><br />
<a href="http://www.carbonneutral.com/page/appccg/" style="background-color: white; color: #771100; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-decoration: none;">http://www.carbonneutral.com/page/appccg/</a><br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C7OBUoV36rc/T1iZ_uwwshI/AAAAAAAACOM/3bdUUEupCyo/s1600/374354785834.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C7OBUoV36rc/T1iZ_uwwshI/AAAAAAAACOM/3bdUUEupCyo/s200/374354785834.jpg" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #992211; position: relative; text-align: center;" width="200" /></a><br />
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For more about the<br />
Arctic Methane Emergency Group,<br />
visit AMEG.me:<br />
<a href="http://ameg.me/" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">http://ameg.me</a></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-21899185424636736702012-02-10T02:16:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:44:59.198-07:00January 2012 shows record levels of methane in the Arctic<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="text-align: left;">In January 2012, methane levels in the Arctic reached levels of 1870 ppb. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></span><br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-POt3XWVH-uE/TzS4a0pGAtI/AAAAAAAAB8M/VdejXxrZWoQ/s1600/7453453765936-650.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #cc4411; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-POt3XWVH-uE/TzS4a0pGAtI/AAAAAAAAB8M/VdejXxrZWoQ/s1600/7453453765936-650.jpg" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; border-width: initial; position: relative;" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></span><span style="background-color: transparent;">Particularly worrying is that, in the past, methane concentrations have fluctuated up and down in line with the seasons. Over the past seven months, however, methane has shown steady growth in the Arctic. Such a long continuous period of growth is unprecedented, the more so as it takes place in winter, when vegetation growth and algae bloom is minimal. The most obvious conclusion is that the methane is venting from hydrates. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent;">Extract from: <a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/need-for-geo-engineering.html" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">The need for geo-engioneering</a></span></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-76768748100226164052012-02-03T23:07:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:45:43.635-07:00How much time is there left to act?<b style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">How much time is there left to act, before methane hydrate releases will lead to human extinction? </span></b><br />
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">by Malcolm Light, edited by Sam Carana</i><br />
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<img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aRyGZWI5eic/TwtgoGn3d5I/AAAAAAAAB4k/23o6WzVq-rU/s1600/ccgg_ZEP_ch4_1_none_discrete_2010_2010.jpg" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #cc4411; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; position: relative; text-align: center; text-decoration: underline;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"> </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Figure 1 below looks at the temperature impact of abrupt methane releases, as measured in 2010 in Svalbard (above image). Such emissions are typically triggered by disruption of the integrity of the hydrates holding the methane.</span><br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LrA9Q6TJFo8/Tyur-zQ0_hI/AAAAAAAAB60/BUoBeMM7weU/s1600/53758665389-650.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="background-color: white; color: #771100; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LrA9Q6TJFo8/Tyur-zQ0_hI/AAAAAAAAB60/BUoBeMM7weU/s1600/53758665389-650.jpg" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; position: relative;" /></a><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">As the red line on the graph indicates, these emissions would raise local temperatures significantly, in a matter of months, since methane has a strong greenhouse effect.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15.45pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; line-height: 15.45pt;">At the time, the rapid increase in methane levels alarmed scientists around the world, but NASA now regards these releases merely as a local peak event that had little impact on overall global temperatures. Even so, the Svalbard event is indicative of the local temperature impact of such emissions.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15.45pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; line-height: 15.45pt;">There are several ways to project how much temperatures will rise in future. The chart below shows the global temperature rise from 1980 to 2011, using the most recent NASA data. Clearly, a simple linear extension of this trend would not suffice, as it would ignore the many feedback effects accelerating the rise.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">The worst-case IPCC scenario projects a mean temperature rise that would take average global temperature beyond 20 degrees Celsius this century, an obviously catastrophic scenario. Yet, t</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">he IPCC scenarios fail to include the many feedbacks that accelerate temperature rises, such as large abrupt releases from methane hydrates. In fact, the IPCC miserably failed to warn about the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice, as pictured on the chart below</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #500050; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4; white-space: pre-wrap;">, by </span><a href="http://profile.typepad.com/rhk001" style="background-color: white; color: #6699cc; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Wipneus</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #500050; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4; white-space: pre-wrap;"> based on </span><a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/" style="background-color: white; color: #6699cc; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">PIOMAS</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #500050; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.4; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> data. </span></span><br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oSHUx_lX40Q/T2rJ4NZueoI/AAAAAAAACWM/rdJazOmD_NI/s1600/8354738453832-650.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="color: #771000; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oSHUx_lX40Q/T2rJ4NZueoI/AAAAAAAACWM/rdJazOmD_NI/s1600/8354738453832-650.jpg" style="border: none; position: relative;" /></a>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; line-height: 15.45pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Mid-point IPCC projections have been incorporated in Figure 2 below for reference. The diagram also incorporates the warming impact of large methane releases, triggered by a scenario based on the data from Svalbard and by the impact of increased seismic activity in the Arctic. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Above updated global warming extinction diagram was produced using new information from the ice cap melting curve and the measured <u></u>Svalbard <u></u>methane concentrations (NOAA 2011a). </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While the gradients were calculated in a different way, taking account of existing Arctic temperatures, the result is almost identical to the earlier version. Furthermore, methane would only require to have a global warming potential of 43.5 over 50 years duration (Figure 2, duration from Carana 2011g) to achieve this high temperature increase in the Arctic. The Arctic ice cap heating curves lag behind the expected Arctic atmospheric temperature curves by some 10 to 20 years over the defined extinction period which is probably a result of the extra energy needed for the latent heat of melting of ice as the permafrost, <u></u>Greenland<u></u> and Antarctic ice caps melt away (Figure 2).<u></u><u></u></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is perfectly clear from the graphs that the methane build up in the Arctic is mainly a result of increasing earthquake activity along the Gakkel Ridge caused by global warming induced worldwide expansion of the Earth’s crust due to the carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere which is enhanced by the heating up of the Arctic ocean due to the high global warming potential of the methane (Light 2011). This close relationship between the Gakkel Ridge earthquake activity, the destabilisation of the Arctic methane hydrates and the NASA GISS surface temperature anomalies has already been clearly demonstrated (Carana, 2011b; Light 2011).<u></u><u></u></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If I was a medical doctor I would say that the patient has a terminal illness and is expected to die of an extreme fever between 2038 and 2050. There are three actions that have to be taken immediately by world governments, if there is any faint hope of preventing the final excruciating stages of death the human race will be forced to live through as we are all boiled like lobsters.</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><u></u><u></u></span></span></div>
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<ol style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.25em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">Developed (and some developing) countries must cut back their carbon dioxide emissions by a very large percentage (50% to 90%) by 2020 to immediately precipitate a cooling of the Earth and its crust. If this is not done the earthquake frequency and methane emissions in the <u></u>Arctic<u></u> will continue to grow exponentially leading to our inexorable demise in 2038 to 2050.</span> <br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><span style="color: #222222;"> </span></li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.25em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">Geoengineering must be used immediately as a cooling method in the <u></u>Arctic<u></u> to counteract the effects of the methane buildup in the short term. However, these methods will lead to further pollution of the atmosphere in the long term and will not solve the earthquake induced Arctic methane buildup which is going to lead to our annihilation.</span> <br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><span style="color: #222222;"> </span></li>
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.25em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit;">The <u></u>United States<u></u> and <u></u>Russia<u></u> must immediately develop a net of powerful radio beam frequency transmission stations around the <u></u>Arctic<u></u> using the critical 13.56 MHZ beat frequency to break down the methane in the stratosphere and troposphere to nanodiamonds and hydrogen (Light 2011a) . Besides the elimination of the high global warming potential methane, the nanodiamonds may form seeds for light reflecting noctilucent clouds in the stratosphere and a light coloured energy reflecting layer when brought down to the Earth by snow and rain (Light 2011a). HAARP transmission systems are able to electronically vibrate the strong ionospheric electric current that feeds down into the polar areas and are thus the least evasive method of directly eliminating the buildup of methane in those critical regions (Light 2011a).</span></li>
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<br /><b>References</b><br /><br />IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change 2007 - temperature rise projections<br /><a href="http://draft.blogger.com/goog_770833402">ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html</a><a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html"> </a><br /><br />NASA global temperature data<br /><a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt">data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt</a><br /><br />Arctic Sea Ice yearly minimum volume, with trendline added by <a href="http://profile.typepad.com/rhk001">Wipneus</a>, based on data by<br />Polar Science Center | Applied Physics Laboratory | University of Washington (2011) <a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/</a><br /><br />Carana, S. (2011b), Light M.P.R. and Carana, S. (2011c)<br />Methane linked to seismic activity in the Arctic <br /><a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html">arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html</a><br /><br />Light M.P.R. (2011), Edited by Sam Carana<br />Use of beamed interfering radio frequency transmissions to decompose Arctic atmospheric methane clouds <br /><a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/decomposing-atmospheric-methane.html">arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/decomposing-atmospheric-methane.html</a><br /><br />Carana, S. (2011g) <br />Runaway Global Warming<br /><a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/04/runaway-global-warming.html">geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/04/runaway-global-warming.html</a><br /><br />Hansen, J.E. (2011)<br />GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. NASA. Goddard Institute for Space Physics <br /><a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgibin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&month_last=08&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=02&year1=2009&year2=2009&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=pol">data.giss.nasa.gov/cgibin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&month_last=08&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=02&year1=2009&year2=2009&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=pol</a><br /><br />IPPC (2007) <br />Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change 2007. FAO 3.1, Figure 1, WG1, Chapter 3, p. 253.<br /><a href="http://blogs.ei.colombia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/graph-2-600X422.jpg">blogs.ei.colombia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/graph-2-600X422.jpg</a><br /><br />Light M.P.R. (2011) <br />Global Warming<br /><a href="http://globalwarmingmlight.blogspot.com/">globalwarmingmlight.blogspot.com</a><br /><br />Masters. J. (2009) <br />Top Climate Story of 2008<br /><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1177">www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1177</a><br /><br />NOAA (2011a), generated ESRL/GMO – 2010, November 08, 11:12 am<br />Huge sudden atmospheric methane spike Arctic Svalbard (north of Norway) <br /><a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/need-for-geo-engineering.html">The need for geo-engineering</a><br /><br />NOAA (2011b), generated ESRL/GMO – 2011, December 14, 17:21 pm<br />Huge sudden methane spike recorded at Barrow (BRW), Alaska, United States. <br /><a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/need-for-geo-engineering.html">The need for geo-engineering</a><div>
<br /></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-71808877658047580322012-01-22T15:14:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:47:26.308-07:00Crop yields in a geoengineered climateA research team at Stanford University, led by Dr. Julia Pongratz, finds that solar-radiation geoengineering in a high-CO2 climate generally causes crop yields to increase, largely because temperature stresses are diminished while the benefits of CO2 fertilization are retained.
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The team adds that, nevertheless, possible yield losses on the local scale as well as known and unknown side effects and risks associated with geoengineering indicate that the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
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Paper: <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1373.html">Crop yields in a geoengineered climate</a>
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Press release: <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-01/ci-gag012012.php">Geoengineering and global food supply</a>
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fhxzOUQVD38" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-30229420625248249722012-01-10T22:31:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:48:37.434-07:00The potential for methane releases in the Arctic to cause runaway global warming<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>What are the chances of abrupt releases of, say, 1 Gt of methane in the Arctic? What would be the impact of such a release?</i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">By Sam Carana, December 20, 2011, updated January 10, 2012<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>How much methane is there in the Arctic?</b></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">An often-used figure in estimates of the size of permafrost stores is 1672 Gt (or Pg, or billion tonnes) of Carbon. This figure relates to organic carbon and refers to terrestrial permafrost stores. (1) </span><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">This figure was recently updated to 1700 Gt of carbon, projected to result in emissions of 30 - 63 Gt of Carbon by 2040, reaching 232 - 380 Gt by 2100 and 549 - 865 Gt by 2300. These figures are </span><span style="color: #222222; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">carbon dioxide</span><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"> equivalents, combining the effect of carbon released both as</span> <span style="color: #222222; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">carbon dioxide</span><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (97.3%) and as methane (2.7%), with almost half the effect likely to be from methane. (2)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19px;"><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">In addition to these terrestrial stores, there is methane in the oceans and in sediments below the seafloor. There are methane hydrates and there is methane in the form of free gas. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Hydrates contain primarily methane and exist within marine sediments particularly in the continental margins and within relic subsea permafrost of the Arctic margins. (3)</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-auto;">Hunter and Haywood estimate that globally between 4700 and 5030 Pg (Gt) of Carbon is locked up within subsea hydrate within the continental margins. This does not include subsea permafrost-hosted hydrates and so those of the shallow Arctic margin (<~300m) were not considered. (3)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img align="right" alt="" border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1kXIkchDBCc/Twtdw3d7NDI/AAAAAAAAB4c/TC4jc1NeTHo/s1600/43567889545-2.jpg" />Shakhova et al. estimate the accumulated methane potential for the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS, rectangle on image right) alone as follows: </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">- organic carbon in permafrost of about 500 Gt; </span><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">- about 1000 Gt in hydrate deposits; and </span><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">- about 700 Gt in free gas beneath the gas hydrate stability zone.</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (4) </span> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">The East Siberian Arctic Shelf covers about 25% of the Arctic Shelf (3) and additional stores are present in submarine areas elsewhere at high latitudes. Importantly, the hydrate and free gas stores contain virtually 100% methane, as opposed to the organic carbon which the above study (2) estimates will produce emissions in the ratio of 97.3% </span><span style="color: #222222; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">carbon dioxide</span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> and only 2.7% methane when decomposing. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>How stable is this methane?</b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The sensitivity of gas hydrate stability to changes in local pressure-temperature conditions and their existence beneath </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">relatively shallow marine environments mean that submarine hydrates are vulnerable to changes in bottom water conditions </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">(i.e. changes in sea level and bottom water temperatures). Following dissociation of hydrates, sediments can become </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">unconsolidated, and structural failure of the sediment column has the potential to trigger submarine landslides and further </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">breakdown of hydrate. The potential geohazard presented to coastal regions by tsunami is obvious. (3)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 19px; text-align: left; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;"><img align="left" alt="" border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OQVPOiYdtc4/TwtarzWXyqI/AAAAAAAAB4U/5Tk1K-P1wDA/s1600/52056892-2.jpg" />Further shrinking of the Arctic ice-cap results in more open water, which not only absorbs more heat, but which also results in more clouds, increasing the potential for storms that can cause damage to the seafloor in coastal areas such as the </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 19px; text-align: left; white-space: pre-wrap;"> East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS, rectangle on image left), where the water is on average only 45 m deep. (5)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Much of the methane released from submarine stores is still broken down by bacteria before reaching the atmosphere. Over time, however, depletion of oxygen and trace elements required for bacteria to break down methane will cause more and more methane to rise to the surface unaffected. (6)</span><br /><br />There are only a handful of locations in the Arctic where (flask) samples are taken to monitor the methane. Recently, two of these locations showed ominous levels of methane in the atmosphere (images below). </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px;"><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">The danger is that large abrupt releases will overwhelm the system, not only causing much of the methane to reach the atmosphere unaffected, but also extending the lifetime of the methane in the atmosphere, due to hydroxyl depletion in the atmosphere. </span><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Shakhova et al. consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. (7)</span><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>What would be the impact of methane releases from hydrates in the Arctic? </b></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">If an amount of, say, 1 Gt of methane from hydrates in the Arctic would abruptly enter the atmosphere, what would be the impact? </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #222222; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Methane's global warming potential (GWP) depends on many variables, such as methane's lifetime, which changes with the size of emissions and the location of emissions (hydroxyl depletion already is a big problem in the Arctic atmosphere), the wind, the time of year (when it's winter, there can be little or no sunshine in the Arctic, so there's less greenhouse effect), etc. One of the variables is the indirect effect of large emissions and what's often overlooked is that large emissions will trigger further emissions of methane, thus further extending the lifetime of both the new and the earlier-emitted methane, which can make the methane persist locally for decades.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The IPCC gives methane a lifetime of 12 years, and a GWP of 25 over 100 years and 72 over 20 years. (8)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thus, applying a GWP of 25 times carbon dioxide would give 1 Gt of methane a greenhouse effect equivalent to 25 Pg of carbon dioxide over 100 years. Applying a GWP of 72 times carbon dioxide would give 1 Gt of methane a greenhouse effect equivalent to 72 Pg of carbon dioxide over 20 years.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal;">By comparison, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose from </span><a href="http://courses.washington.edu/pcc588/lectures_notes/588_09_Ccycle_js58_Pt3.pdf" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal; text-decoration: none;">288 ppmv in 1850</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal;"> to </span><a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal; text-decoration: none;">369.5 ppmv in 2000</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal;">, for </span><a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal; text-decoration: none;">an increase of 81.5 ppmv, or 174 Pg C</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal;">. (9)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Note that this 174 Pg C was released over a period of 150 years, allowing sinks time to absorb part of the burden. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Note also that, as emissions continue to rise, some</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> sinks may turn into net emitters, if they haven't already done so.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img align="left" alt="" border="0" height="620" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6Qm5FW8HWC0/Tw0kQb9rQUI/AAAAAAAAB5E/LuN5yelosO8/s1600/8236545376458758-11.jpg" width="200" />The image on the left shows the impact of 1 Gt of methane, compared with annual fluxes of carbon dioxide based on the NOAA carbon tracker. (10) </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fossil fuel and fires have been adding an annual flux of just under 10 Pg C since 2000 and a good part of this is still being absorbed by land and ocean sinks. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />In other words, the total burden of all carbon dioxide emitted by people since the start of the industrial revolution has been partly mitigated by sinks, since it was released over a long period of time.<br /><br />Furthermore, the carbon dioxide was emitted (and partly absorbed) all over the globe, whereas methane from such abrupt releases in the Arctic would - at least initially - be concentrated in a relatively small area, and likely cause oxygen depletion in the water and hydroxyl depletion in the atmosphere, while triggering further releases from hydrates in the Arctic.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This makes it appropriate to expect a high initial impact from an abrupt 1 Gt methane release, which will also extend methane's lifetime. Applying a GWP of 100 times carbon dioxide would give 1 Gt of methane an immediate greenhouse effect equivalent to 100 Pg of carbon dioxide.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even more terrifying is the prospect of further methane releases. Given that there already is ~5 Gt in the atmosphere, plus the initial 1 Gt, further releases of 4 Gt of methane would<span style="color: #222222; white-space: pre-wrap;"> result in a burden of 10 Gt of methane. W</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">hen a</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">pplying a GWP of 100 times carbon dioxide</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">, this would result in a short-term greenhouse effect equivalent to 1000 Pg of carbon dioxide.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">In conclusion, this scenario would be catastrophic and the methane wouldn't go away quickly either, since this would be likely to keep triggering further releases. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">While some models project rapid decay of the methane, those models often use global decay values and long periods, which is not applicable in case of such abrupt releases in the Arctic. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: normal;"> </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">Instead, the methane is likely to stay active in the Arctic for many years at its highest warming potential, due to depletion of hydroxyl and oxygen, while the resulting summer warming (when the sun doesn't set) is likely to keep triggering further releases in the Arctic. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>References</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">1. Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Tarnocai, Canadell, Schuur, Kuhry, Mazhitova and Zimov (2009)</span><br /><a href="http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GB003327.shtml" style="color: #3366cc; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #000099; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GB003327.shtml</span></a><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://www.lter.uaf.edu/dev2009/pdf/1350_Tarnocai_Canadell_2009.pdf" style="color: #3366cc; text-decoration: none;">http://www.lter.uaf.edu/dev2009/pdf/1350_Tarnocai_Canadell_2009.pdf</a></span><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">2. Climate change: High risk of permafrost thaw </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Schuur et al. (2011)</span><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Nature 480, 32–33 (1 December 2011) doi:10.1038/480032a</span><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v480/n7375/full/480032a.html" style="color: #3366cc; text-decoration: none;">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v480/n7375/full/480032a.html</a></span><br /><a href="http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1562_Schuur_Abbott_2011.pdf" style="color: #3366cc; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #000099; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1562_Schuur_Abbott_2011.pdf</span></a><br /><br />3. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: black; line-height: normal; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Science Blog: Submarine Methane Hydrate: A threat under anthropogenic climate change?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Stephen Hunter and Alan Haywood (2011)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://climate.ncas.ac.uk/ncas-science-blog/241-science-blog-submarine-methane-hydrate-a-threat-under-anthropogenic-climate-change" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">http://climate.ncas.ac.uk/ncas-science-blog/241-science-blog-submarine-methane-hydrate-a-threat-under-anthropogenic-climate-change</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">4. Methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the Potential for Abrupt Climate Change </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov (2010)<br /><a href="http://symposium2010.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/version/3/file/1A_Shakhova_Final.pdf" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">http://symposium2010.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/version/3/file/1A_Shakhova_Final.pdf</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">5. Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf</span><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Shakhova et al. (2010)</span><br /><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract</a><br /><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">6. </span><span style="background-color: white; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Berkeley Lab and Los Alamos National Laboratory (2011)</span><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2011/05/04/methane-arctic/" style="color: #3366cc; text-decoration: none;">http://newscenter.lbl.gov/feature-stories/2011/05/04/methane-arctic/</a></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/news/item/?item_id=212872" style="background-color: white; color: #6699cc; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/news/item/?item_id=212872</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">7. Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf hydrates? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Shakhova, Semiletov, Salyuk and Kosmach (2008)</span><br /><span style="text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf" style="color: #3366cc; text-decoration: none;">http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">8. Global Warming Potential</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)</span></div>
<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html#table-2-14" style="background-color: white; color: #6699cc; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none;">http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html#table-2-14</a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">9. Runaway global warming </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19px; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">Sam Carana (2011)</span><br /><span style="color: #3366cc;"><span style="line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://runawaywarming.blogspot.com/" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;">http://runawaywarming.blogspot.com</a></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px;">10. </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Carbon Tracker 2010 - </span></span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Flux Time Series - CT2010 - </span></span><span style="background-color: white;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Earth System Research Laboratory</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/fluxtimeseries.php?region=All_Land#imagetable" style="color: #771100; text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/fluxtimeseries.php?region=All_Land#imagetable</span></a><br />
<div style="line-height: 19px;">
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11. </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On carbon transport and fate in the East Siberian Arctic land–shelf–atmosphere system</span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 19px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Semiletov et al. (2012)</span><br />
<a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/015201" style="background-color: white; color: #771100; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-decoration: none;">http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/015201</a></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-24307872059377849132011-12-24T00:21:00.001-08:002022-08-01T22:49:29.442-07:00Can we capture methane from the Arctic seabed?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-size: x-large;">Can we capture
methane from the Arctic seabed?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;">Stephen H. Salter, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh,
Scotland. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;">Prepared
for the John Nissen Methane Workshop, Chiswick 15,16 October 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><i>DRAFT 3 November with pressure ridge
addition.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">Methane is a greenhouse gas more than 100
times more effective than carbon dioxide in the short term. It is stored in the form of clathrates which
are unstable if pressure is lower or temperature is higher than a line on a
pressure versus temperature graph. Figure 1 shows that the slope of the
atmospheric concentration has sharply increased since 2007. Previous high levels of methane were
associated with the Permian mass extinction, </span>250 million years ago.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kZIUw5bMkBo/TvWNxyXKm1I/AAAAAAAABwY/GufSkX8HwBM/s1600/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kZIUw5bMkBo/TvWNxyXKm1I/AAAAAAAABwY/GufSkX8HwBM/s320/1.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 1. Anomalies of CH4 mean volume mixing ratios
for Northern and Southern hemispheres courtesy Leonid Yurganov. Updated
mixing ratios (Dlugokencky et al., 2009) were subtracted from the seasonal
cycles averaged over 2003-2007. The right scale shows the anomaly of total mass
of CH4 in the tropospheric layer of each hemisphere. The growth has been
continuing in 2010-2011, according to the updated satellite data by Frankenberg
et al. 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This note discusses the design problems of
a system to deploy kilometre-sized areas of plastic film to collect methane
from suitable areas of the sea bed. The
gas can be flared off at sea to convert it to less damaging carbon dioxide or
perhaps, if there are very high flow rates, recovered by a gas carrier and used
ashore.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There seem to be solutions to what appeared
initially to be an insoluble problem.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The difficulties<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">When John Nissen first raised the problem
of Arctic methane my initial reaction was that capture at the sea bed would be
impossible. But trying to design for the
impossible can be interesting. It seemed
a useful exercise to identify the reasons for impossibility. We can list
difficulties as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<ol start="1" style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Methane release at very low flow rates over too wide an area.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Release at very high rates over a small area such as a well
blow-out.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Rough seas during deployment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The presence of obstructions such as wreckage, rock outcrops,
munitions or steep slopes.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Fast, variable-direction or unpredictable currents.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Equipment sinking into very soft ooze on the seabed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Hydrogen sulphide toxicity.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Unacceptable biological consequences due to the presence of equipment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The need to recover everything at some date in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The pressure ridges shown by Peter Wadhams at the Chiswick
workshop.<o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
</ol>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I now believe that despite these problems
methane can be captured in quite large quantities from areas of several square
kilometres of plastic film in a single installation. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The design<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The film sheet is packed into a pair of
left and right-handed rubber trough cases [1] and [2] with a rectangular inner
section as shown in figure 2. Each trough case carries two steel cables [3]. The trough cases would be produced by a
continuous moulding/extrusion machine in lengths of several kilometres using
plant similar to that used for electrical cables. The left and right handed
pair are connected at the centre by two thin isthmus strips of material [4] [5]
above and below a rectangular section passage.
The passage contains a rectangular section runner [6] with two blades
[7] [8] which can be pulled through the full length of the extrusion by a steel
cable. [9]. If the steel cable is pulled the two blades
will cut the connection strips and the trough case halves will be
separated. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The underside of the trough case extrusion has a moulded tread
with a pattern of saw-tooth section ridges [10] lying at an angle of about 30
degrees to the length of the extrusion. This ridge angle is an important design
parameter. At the outer corners of the
bottom of the insides of the trough cases are recesses [11] into which a bead
on the edge of an extruded plastic sheet can be pushed. The outer walls of the trough are much
thicker than the inner walls and contain galleries [12] along which methane can
be transported to riser pipes. They connect to the higher points of the
saw-tooth moulding. A high-density filler is added to the rubber to make sure
that it is heavier than cold sea water but not heavier than the ooze on the sea
bed. The outer edges of the extrusion [13] are sloped like the front of a
sledge. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">At the bottom of figure 2 the troughs are
shown filled with a zig-zag stack of flexible plastic with a density just
greater than cold sea water and a thickness of about 200 microns. The zig-zag stacks on each side a joined at
the top [14]. The lower edges with a
bead are pushed into the recesses in each trough. This plastic would be produced by a second
extrusion machine consisting of interdigital plates to be described later. If the width of each trough is one metre and
the trough depth is 150 mm there will be space for 750 layers of zig-zag
plastic, giving an extended width of 1.5 kilometres when the zig-zags on the
two sides are unpacked. The stacks of
plastic film can be packed securely by lid flaps [15] retained by a vacuum
maintained through pipes [16]. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The length of plastic and rubber would be
wound in a single scroll on the drum of a pipe-laying vessel such as the Stena
Apache. A drum diameter of 35 meters
could take a width of 1.5 kilometres and length of 3 kilometres, giving a capture
area of 4.5 square kilometres.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_Mw1M6m9P9k/TvWUVvwtUoI/AAAAAAAABx4/5DfoyFQsews/s1600/2c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_Mw1M6m9P9k/TvWUVvwtUoI/AAAAAAAABx4/5DfoyFQsews/s1600/2c.jpg" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB"><i><span style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 2. Empty and filled extruded rubber trough cases with 4 times enlarged views of end and centre. </span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;">Deployment.</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Survey vessels with side-scan sonar and
methane detection sensors would look for suitable sites with no large obstructions,
suitable current velocities and comfortable methane emission rates.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Small obstructions can be levelled with
robotic sea bed vehicles such as the one described at the 2011 EWTEC
conference.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The pipe-laying vessel would take station
well downstream of the target area and pay out the scrolled material to the sea
bed as if it were oil pipe. The extreme
flexibility of the trough case (relative to 12 inch steel pipe) would allow
wave tolerant J-lay rather than an S-lay release.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Once the full length of the package is on
the sea bed (figure 3) it would be towed along the seabed by ropes attached to
the fore end of the rubber extrusions until it reached a point before the start
of the target area equal to the string length divided by the cosine of the
ridge angle. If possible the tow
direction should be perpendicular to current and swell.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The central cable with knife blades would
be pulled through the rubber extrusion to separate the two troughs. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The vacuum retaining the lid flaps will be
released.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Towing to increase the width of the film
can now begin. Towing from the pipe-laying vessel would mean lifting the
leading edge of the pack and there might be disturbance by waves. It is preferable to use a horizontal force
from a sea bed walking vehicle. There
might sometimes be an advantage in raising and lowering the leading edge in the
way used for aligning carpets. The tow
force would depend on the weight of the package in water and the coefficient of
friction to the sea bed. This is expected to be about 250 kN. This will set the size of the steel cables
embedded in the rubber extrusions which transmit the tow force along the length
of the rubber and the bollard pull of the tow vehicles.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The tow vehicles will keep the tow lines
pointing along the line of the package but the angled ridges would make the two
troughs move apart from each other and so the tow vehicles will take diverging
courses. The layers of plastic film will be pulled away from the zig-zag stack,
as shown in figure 3, with the weight of the retaining lids providing a gentle
resisting force.. GPS systems will be used to keep the advance rate of the tow
vehicles matched.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The small density difference between
plastic and sea water will mean that the drag friction between plastic and sea
bed will be very low with a factor of safety of several hundred relative to the
plastic strength.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The ridges in the rubber extrusion will
leave furrows on the surface of the seabed.
When the furrows are covered by the plastic sheet they will form
passages for the removal of gas through galleries in the outer walls of the
trough. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The outward movement of the trough cases
will build up material from the sea bed at the front of the outer sledge
faces. Water moving through eductor jets
[17] can move some of the sea bed material over the film.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The gas pipe connection from below the film
to the surface will bring its pressure closer to atmospheric. Eventually several bars of water pressure
will clamp the film and trough casings firmly to the sea bed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_7yz1ezkP9A/TvWUGmomBEI/AAAAAAAABxs/zuLa3M3TDl4/s1600/3c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_7yz1ezkP9A/TvWUGmomBEI/AAAAAAAABxs/zuLa3M3TDl4/s1600/3c.jpg" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 3. Deployment of the film using the side force
from the inclined ridges at the bottom<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">of the trough cases. Proportions are grossly
distorted.</span></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tooling<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thermo-plastic films can be made by heating
pellets of the feed stock to their melting point, pumping the liquid material
through fine gaps in an extrusion tool and progressively cooling the downstream
section of the tool to a temperature at which the film can be handled. The
energy requirement is the sum of melting heat and pumping pressure. Much of the heat can be recycled back to the
incoming feed stock. The product is easier to handle if the pumping is in a
downward direction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The tool will consist of one inner and two
outer stacks of plates each of which consists of two half plates which have
been machined with a zig-zag coolant channel and then riveted and spot-welded
back together as shown in figure 4. The
key problem is maintaining an accurate gap, probably 200 microns, between inner
and outer plates. Gravitational sag will
be avoided if plates are vertical. At
the top of the tool where the film material is still liquid the gap can be
defined by streamlined shims but in the cooler regions it must be actively
controlled with no physical blockage.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Material from a rolling mill usually has
quite large flatness errors and a skin under compression. The first step will be stress relief by
raising the plate temperature to 650 C for an hour and cooling it slowly.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Toolroom surface grinders can work to a
flatness better than 3 microns but if curved parts are held flat on a magnetic
chuck the curvature will be restored when the magnetic flux is removed. It will be necessary to hold the plates on a
hot wax chuck as used in the optical industry. It might be useful to consider a low-force
cutting technique such as spark erosion.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-83zw6wke7o0/TvWTNjVJ7JI/AAAAAAAABxg/qUkAOyRgUyw/s1600/4c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-83zw6wke7o0/TvWTNjVJ7JI/AAAAAAAABxg/qUkAOyRgUyw/s1600/4c.jpg" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 4. A grossly distorted plan view of the topology
of the extrusion tool with exploded parts. A 1500 metre width would require 750
plates rather than eight. Maintaining a
gap for the film thickness is a challenging problem but may be done with
differential temperature control. The tool for a 1500 metre width of film would
weigh about 200 tonnes. If the
differential temperature idea is not feasible, smaller tools could be used but
a way to store and join kilometre lengths edge to edge would be needed.
Temporary coiling looks difficult.</span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></i></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Gap control<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We can use an array of capacitance
transducers to measure the gap between plates of an assembled stack. We can cover the surfaces of plates with
resistive heating elements either side of the cooling channels. By differential control of the heating
currents we can control the local curvature of a plate. The coefficient of thermal expansion of
stainless steel is 17 part per million per C degree. A temperature difference of 1C across a 15 mm
plate will induce a radius of curvature of 440 metres. If the width of the heating element is 100 mm
this means a deflection of 11 microns.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A neat way to provide plate deflection
control is to divide the plate surfaces into 100 mm squares with a resistive
layer filling most of the area. The
squares would be connected in series and driven with a constant current from a
high impedance source rather than a constant voltage. The current would be diverted around the
heating element by a parallel, high-frequency switch operated for a variable
fraction of the time. A small fraction
of the surface with a grounded guard backing would be given a high-frequency
excitation to measure the capacitance to the adjacent plate. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Cold heat exchanger fluid will be pumped
into the bottom of the vertical tooling plates and emerge from the top at nearly
the melting temperature of the plastic film.
After some extra heating the fluid will then move downwards through a
vertical-tube heat-exchanger to melt the incoming plastic.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Solidified film coming out of the bottom of
the tool will be further cooled by an upward flow air which will then be
directed down through a bed of rising feed pellets and shredded plastic being
recycled. Air can flow easily through
gaps between pellets or shredded feed stock.
The surface area of pellets is large even if heat transfer per unit area
is low. Heat can flow more easily between liquids. However there will be an awkward gap between
solid but nearly molten pellets in the air in the pellet heat exchanger and
liquid in the one above it. Although the
temperature difference might be quite small the amount of latent heat of fusion
might be substantial. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;">Gas flow rates</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
A slide (number 34) from the Shakova - Semiletov
paper given at the November 30 2010 DoD workshop in Washington, gives a figure
for methane flux of 44 grams per square metre a day over half a 500 metre
transect, shown below. This is well
above other observations. The calorific value of methane is 55 MJ per
kilogram so this would be a thermal power of 28 MW per square kilometre. These conditions might well not apply to the
full film area and, at this rate, it would probably not be worth collecting
methane on a ship. In future the rate,
and gas prices, might increase. However the power level should be enough to
drive a mechanism with chain saws and heat transfer pipes to keep a clear hole
for a flaring stack in a moving winter ice field if methane release in winter
was thought to be a problem. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Size of release plumes<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
This paper has described what I believe to be the largest possible collector area using present technology. We need to know more about the size and spacing of release plumes to decide if the area has to be as large as this. One example of the kind of data needed is given in figure 5. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gu5BcrV_UEg/TvWVUGzydZI/AAAAAAAAByE/aIDdzYfcTBs/s1600/5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" border="0" height="214" src="http://i245.photobucket.com/albums/gg46/SamCarana/5.jpg" width="459" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 5. An echo sounder image giving the size of
methane plumes from Shakhova et al.. This shows a transect of about 500 metres
in the <st1:place w:st="on">Laptev sea</st1:place> showing bubble plume return
features<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">and also zooplankton other non-bubble scatterers such
as fish.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Material quantities<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Shakhova presentation also mentioned total
areas of methane hot spots of 210,000 square kilometres, the area of a square
of side 460 kilometres. The proposed design
needs about 200 tonnes of plastic film per square kilometre. Total world
consumption of plastics in 2010 was about 300 million tonnes and forecast to
rise to 538 million in 2020. Protecting
the Shakova area with coverings which lasted 10 years would take about 1.5% of
total present world plastic production.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Recovery<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Maintenance would be very difficult and is
not planned. But anyone putting anything into the sea has an ethical duty to
plan for its recovery. The proposal is
to make structures of two cutting discs about 2 metres in diameter separated at
12 metres which can roll along the length of the film to cut it into 12 metre
wide strips. The ends of the cut can be
gripped with a vacuum plate, lifted to the surface and wound round a drum. The area of the long side of a 3 km length
sheet of clean film is only 0.6 square metres. Over a period of years it will probably have
acquired biological growths, some of which can be removed by pulling it between
contra-rotating brushes. It is desirable
that growth thickness can be reduced to the level at which film can be packed
into 2.2 metre diameter for movement in a sea container. For a film length of 3 kilometres this means
a thickness of film plus growth of 1.25 mm.
The extruded rubber trough cases would be wound on the drum of a
pipe-laying vessel. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Comments on the feasibility of this proposal, however
critical, would be welcome.</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;">Conclusions.</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There is a wide range of estimates for the
rates of methane release from Arctic seabeds but the higher ones are alarming
enough for all defensive measures to be carefully examined.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Initial design work for the manufacture and
deployment of kilometre-sized areas of plastic film to capture methane suggests
that that this may be possible for a range of emission rates provided that the
areas of the sea bed are clear of obstructions. This conclusion should be checked
with people from the plastic and rubber industries.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Deployment and recovery will require
pipe-laying vessels from the oil industry , such as the Stena Apache, and
specialised seabed crawlers which have been designed for wave and tidal-stream
installation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Unless methane emission rates are even
higher than suggested it will not be economical to recover methane for use on
land and so flaring off at sea is more likely.
However there may be enough energy to drive ice-cutting equipment to
keep the water round a flare stack clear of drifting ice in winter.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The extrusion tool for a 1500 metre width
will require about 200 tonnes of very flat stainless steel sheet. The critical
problem is maintaining an accurate gap in the extrusion tool. This can be done with differential
temperature control of opposite surfaces of a stack of interdigital plates with
central cooling channels. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The separation of halves of a film package
can be done by the force generated from angled saw-tooth ridges on the
underside when the package is dragged over the sea bed. This allows very wide film coverage from an
easily transported package and leaves tracks for methane flow.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If the underside of the film has a pipe
connection to the atmosphere the pressure from water above it will clamp it
firmly to the sea bed. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Work on long-term biological testing of
candidate film materials should begin as soon as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is necessary to have credible techniques
to recover all materials from the sea bed.
The proposed method must be critically checked by experienced offshore
engineers.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A 4.5 square kilometre area of 200 micron
sheet will need about 930 tonnes or 25 railway trucks of plastic but this is
small compared with world production.
Energy consumption in the present plastics industry is about 10 MJ a
kilogram compared with 2.25 MJ for the latent heat of steam. If the film extrusion velocity is 10 mm a
second we will need 3.5 days for one pack and a power of 35 MW. Heat pump technology could give a very large
reduction in energy consumption and must be carefully investigated.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We may have to avoid deployment in water
depths less than the deepest pressure ridges. The leading ice authority, Peter
Wadhams, says that these can reach down to 34 metres below the surface. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Actions<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Resolve the three-order of magnitude dispute
about methane release rates and investigate sea bed methane release rates and their
variability in space and time. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Check design assumptions with the plastic
film and rubber extrusion industry. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Choose the best candidate film materials
with density just greater than cold sea water (1028.4 kg/m3) and establish
stress capability in working conditions.
A large strain length is more important than tensile strength.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Place specimens of the various film types
in suitable test site in northern <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Norway</st1:country-region></st1:place> and observe biological
results especially recolonization rates.
The earlier this begins the better.
Albert Kallio has warned about anoxic conditions below the film. The area of test film must be large enough to
replicate this.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">Measure tow forces on 5-metre sized blocks
and establish the best ridge angle for a range of sea bed conditions from
gravel to sand to ooze.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 6pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Place blocks of various shapes and
densities fitted with accelerometers on the sea bed and measure how many roll
or slide.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Carry out a sonar side-scan survey to
identify obstructions in suitable areas.
Some, such as bullion cargoes, may be removable.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Collect information on depth and occurrence
of pressure ridges in methane release areas.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Pray that the continual underestimation of
the potential climate risks by people who are responsible for defending us
against them does not continue.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Links</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">World plastic production<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.pardos-marketing.com/paper_g04.htm"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">http://www.pardos-marketing.com/paper_g04.htm</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Shakhova PowerPoint presentation link.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://symposium2010.serdp-estcp.org/Technical-Sessions/1A"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">http://symposium2010.serdp-estcp.org/Technical-Sessions/1A</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Shakhova Semiletov paper<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.agu.org/journals/jc/jc1008/2009JC005602/2009JC005602.pdf"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">http://www.agu.org/journals/jc/jc1008/2009JC005602/2009JC005602.pdf</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/368223.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/368223.html</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Pipe-laying vessels<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://mobile.technip.com/en/our-business/fleet-facilities/vessels"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">http://mobile.technip.com/en/our-business/fleet-facilities/vessels</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Other collected papers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/methane"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none;">http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/methane</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 14pt;">References</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"><br />
<br />
</span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt;">Dlugokencky, E. J., L. M. P. Bruhwiler, J. W. C.
White, L. K. Emmons, P. C. Novelli, S. A. Montzka, K. A. Masarie, P. M. Lang,
A. M. Crotwell, J. B. Miller and L. V. Gatti</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 10pt;"> (2009), Observational constraints on recent increases
in the atmospheric CH4 burden, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L18803,
10.1029/2009GL039780.<br />
<b>Frankenberg, C., I. Aben, P.
Bergamaschi, E. J. Dlugokencky, R. van Hees, S. Houweling, P. van der Meer, R.
Snel P.</b> Dol (2011), Global column-averaged methane mixing ratios from 2003
to 2009 as derived from SCIAMACHY: Trends and variability, Journal of
Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 116(D04302), 1-12, 10.1029/2010JD014849.<br />
<b>Montzka, S. A., E. J. Dlugokencky and J.
H.</b> Butler (2011), Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change, NATURE, 476,
43-50, 10.1038/nature10322.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
</div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-76303623355407005462011-12-07T02:38:00.002-08:002022-08-01T22:50:17.499-07:00Arctic Methane Alert<br />
Professor Peter Wadhams (Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University) and Arctic Methane Emergency Group Chairman, John Nissen, will discuss the need for geoengineering in the Arctic to prevent runaway climate change.<br />
<br />
Where: Moscone Center South, Halls A-C, San Francisco<br />
<br />
When: Thursday December 8, 2011.<br />
<br />
Session: Global Environment Change Poster: GC 41B<br />
<br />
Arctic Methane Workshop: An assessment of threats to Arctic and global warming; and an evaluation of techniques to counter these threats<br />
<a href="http://eposters.agu.org/abstracts/arctic-methane-workshop-an-assessment-of-threats-to-arctic-and-global-warming-and-an-evaluation-of-techniques-to-counter-these-threats/">http://eposters.agu.org/abstracts/arctic-methane-workshop-an-assessment-of-threats-to-arctic-and-global-warming-and-an-evaluation-of-techniques-to-counter-these-threats/</a><br />
<br />
See poster at:<br />
<a href="http://eposters.agu.org/files/2011/12/Poster-2.pdf">http://arctic-news.blogspot.com.au/p/agu-poster.html</a><br />
<br />
See brochure at:<br />
<a href="http://www.flipdocs.com/showbook.aspx?ID=10004692_698290">http://www.flipdocs.com/showbook.aspx?ID=10004692_698290</a><br />
<br />
For more, also see website at<br />
<a href="http://www.arctic-methane-emergency-group.org/#/dec-2011-agu/4558306797">http://www.arctic-methane-emergency-group.org/#/dec-2011-agu/4558306797</a><br />
and associated discussions at:<br />
<a href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/arctic-methane">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/arctic-methane</a><br />
<br />
Cheers,<br />
Sam CaranaSam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-55078066863739907502011-11-15T01:52:00.002-08:002022-08-01T22:50:49.056-07:00Creating extra ice in winter for extra cooling in summerUlan Bator, the capital of Mongolia, is considering creating extra ice in winter.<br />
<br />
A Mongolian engineering firm ECOS & EMI aims to drill bore holes into ice formed on the Tuul river in winter. The water will be discharged across the surface, where it will freeze. This process - effectively adding layers of ice rinks - will be repeated at regular intervals throughout the winter.<br />
<br />
The idea is that this can help cool and water the city as the ice melts during the summer.<br />
<br />
Source: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/15/mongolia-ice-shield-geoengineering">Mongolia bids to keep city cool with 'ice shield' experiment</a> - The Guardian, November 15, 2011.Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-784046717004475334.post-66844170809239782192011-11-14T20:57:00.003-08:002022-08-01T22:51:34.640-07:00Combining Policy and Technology<br />
<strong>Technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere</strong><br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.virgin.com/company/virgin-earth-challenge" style="text-decoration: none;">Virgin Earth Challenge</a> is <em>a prize of $25m for whoever can demonstrate to the judges' satisfaction a commercially viable design which results in the removal of anthropogenic, atmospheric greenhouse gases so as to contribute materially to the stability of Earth’s climate</em>.<br />
<br />
Among the 11 <a href="http://www.virgin.com/people-and-planet/blog/virgin-earth-challenge-announces-leading-organisations" style="text-decoration: none;">shortlisted</a> organizations are:<br />
<ul><li>biochar (<a href="http://www.biocharsolutions.com/" style="text-decoration: none;">Biochar Solutions</a>, <a href="http://www.blackcarbon.dk/" style="text-decoration: none;">Black Carbon</a> and <a href="http://fullcirclebiochar.com/" style="text-decoration: none;">Full Circle Biochar</a>)</li>
<li>carbon capture, particularly from ambient air (<a href="http://www.carbonengineering.com/" style="text-decoration: none;">Carbon Engineering</a>, <a href="http://www.kilimanjaroenergy.com/" style="text-decoration: none;">Kilimanjaro Energy</a> and <a href="http://www.climeworks.com/" style="text-decoration: none;">Climeworks</a>)</li>
<li>enhanced weathering (<a href="http://www.smartstones.nl/" style="text-decoration: none;">Smart Stones</a>)</li>
</ul>Above three technologies (biochar, carbon air capture and enhanced weathering) have great potential to help out with carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. To combat global warming, further technologies should be considered, such as in Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Arctic Methane Management (AMM).<br />
<br />
How effective each technology is in one area is an important consideration; importantly, each such technologies can also have effects in further areas.<br />
<br />
<strong>Further areas</strong><br />
<br />
Global warming is only one out of multiple areas where action is required; an example of another area is the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica; effective action has already been taken in this area, but the growing hole in the ozone layer over the Arctic shows that further action is necessary.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html" style="text-decoration: none;">A safe operating space for humanity</a> is a landmark 2009 study by Rockström et al. It identifies nine essential areas where sustainability is stressed to the limits, in three cases beyond its limits.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BYaUTEfYR6o/X3ggGRucFiI/AAAAAAAAczI/RXNRS5mTqS4DzIOGy4igyyh4XQtahSifACLcBGAsYHQ/s700/safe-operating-space-for-humanity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="700" height="580" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BYaUTEfYR6o/X3ggGRucFiI/AAAAAAAAczI/RXNRS5mTqS4DzIOGy4igyyh4XQtahSifACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h580/safe-operating-space-for-humanity.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div> <strong>Areas and applicable technologies</strong><br />
<br />
The table below shows these nine areas on the left, while technologies that could be helpful in the respective area feature on the right.<br />
<br />
As said, each of technologies may be able to help out in multiple areas. As an example, by reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, biochar and carbon air capture can also indirectly reduce carbon dioxide in oceans and thus help out with ocean acidification. Enhanced weathering could additionally reduce carbon dioxide in the oceans directly, thus presenting itself even more prominently as a proposal to achieve sustainability in this area.<br />
<br />
Similarly, algae bags located in the mouth of a river could help out in multiple areas. They could produce biofuel and thus help reduce aviation emissions, while in the process catching fertilizer runoff, thus reducing emissions of nitrous oxide (the largest ozone-depleting substance emitted through human activities in a <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090827_ozone.html" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">2009 NOAA study</a>) and also reducing depletion of oxygen in oceans.<br />
<br />
<div><table border="0" bordercolor="#FFFFFF" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td valign="top">1. Climate Change</td><td width="8"></td><td valign="top" width="330">CDR: biochar, carbon air capture, enhanced weathering, algae bags, EVs, renewable energy, clean cooking & heating, LEDs, etc.<br />
SRM: surface and cloud brightening, release of aerosols<br />
AMM: methane capture, oxygen release, river diversion, enhanced methane decomposition</td></tr>
<tr><td>2. Ocean acidification</td><td></td><td>enhanced weathering</td></tr>
<tr><td>3. Stratospheric ozone depletion</td><td></td><td>oxygen release</td></tr>
<tr><td>4. Nitrogen & Phosphorus Cycles</td><td></td><td>algae bags, biochar, enhanced weathering</td></tr>
<tr><td>5. Global freshwater use</td><td></td><td>desalination, biochar, enhanced weathering</td></tr>
<tr><td>6. Change in land use</td><td></td><td>desalination, biochar, enhanced weathering</td></tr>
<tr><td>7. Biodiversity loss</td><td></td><td>desalination, biochar, enhanced weathering</td></tr>
<tr><td valign="top">8. Atmospheric aerosol loading</td><td></td><td>biochar, EVs, renewable energy, clean cooking & heating, LEDs, etc.</td></tr>
<tr><td>9. Chemical pollution</td><td></td><td>recycling, waste management (separation)</td></tr>
</tbody></table></div><br />
<strong>Implementing the most effective policies</strong><br />
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Policy support for such technologies is imperative. Just like some technologies can help out in several areas, some policies can cover multiple areas. As an example, a policy facilitating a shift to cleaner energy can both reduce greenhouse gases and aerosols such as soot and sulfur. Sulfur reflects sunlight back into space, so reducing sulfur emissions results in more global warming, but conversely global warming can be reduced by releasing sulfur over water at higher latitudes.<br />
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How many different policies would be needed to support such technologies? What are the best policy instruments to use?<br />
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Traditionally, government-funded subsidies and standards have been used to contain pollution, sometimes complemented with levies and refundable deposits; this can also work for chemical pollution. Standards have also proven to be effective in reducing the impact of CFCs on the ozone layer, while - as said - policies could at the same time also be effective in other areas, in this case reducing the impact of CFCs as greenhouse gases.<br />
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However, standards don't raise funding for support of such technologies, while taxpayer-funded subsidies make everyone pay for the pollution caused by some. Hybrid methods such as cap-and-trade and offsets are prone to corruption and fraud, which compromises their effectiveness. Local feebates are most effective in facilitating the necessary shifts in many areas.<br />
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<strong>Two sets of feebates</strong><br />
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To facilitate the necessary shift away from fuel toward clean energy, local feebates are most effective. Fees on cargo and flights could fund carbon air capture, while fees on fuel could fund rebates on electricity produced in clean and safe ways. Fees could also be imposed on the engines, ovens, kilns, furnaces and stoves where fuel is burned, to fund rebates on clean alternatives, such as EV batteries and motors, solar cookers and electric appliances. Such feebates are pictured as yellow lines in the top half of the image below.<br />
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Support for biochar and olivine sand could be implemented through a second set of feebates, as pictured in the bottom half of the image below. Revenues from these feebates could also be used to support further technologies, as described in the paragraph below.<br />
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Further technologies should be considered for their effectiveness in specific areas, including:<br />
<ul><li>release of oxygen to help combat methane in the Arctic and to help combat loss of stratospheric ozone</li>
<li>use of plastic sheets to capture methane</li>
<li>use of radio waves to enhance methane decomposition</li>
<li>diversion of water from rivers to avoid warm water flowing into the Arctic Ocean</li>
<li>release of aerosols over water at higher latitudes</li>
<li>surface & cloud brightening to reflect more sunlight back into space</li>
</ul><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MKY_zUL-FK8/T7ThrFop5uI/AAAAAAAAC1A/Eq_KCgmJohw/s1600/Nov-14-2011.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MKY_zUL-FK8/T7ThrFop5uI/AAAAAAAAC1A/Eq_KCgmJohw/s1600/Nov-14-2011.jpg" /></a></div><strong><br />
</strong> <strong><br />
</strong> <strong>Professor Schuiling proposes olivine rock grinding</strong><br />
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 10px;">Dutch Professor Olaf Schuiling has been working on rock grinding <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v201/n4921/abs/201807b0.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #006699; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">for many years</a>. Remember the <a href="http://www.virgin.com/subsites/virginearth/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #006699; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Virgin Earth Challenge</a>, launched early 2007 with the promise to award $35 million to the best method to remove greenhouse gases? Schuiling said: Let's grind more rocks! Last thing Schuiling heard was that he was among the final ten contenders.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 10px;">Schuiling's method is simple. Crush olivine rock to small pieces and it will bind with carbon dioxide. This process - called weathering - happens in nature but takes a long time. Crushing and grinding olivine rock will speed up the process and is therefore often called enhanced weathering. It works best in wet tropical countries, but can be done everywhere around the world.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 10px;">Schuiling proposes to cover beaches, levees and railway tracks with the material, and proposes olivine to be added to building materials like pavement and concrete. It can also be added to soil and water. Adding olivine can fertilize the soil and improve its ability to retain water, and can work well in combination with biochar and other ways to increase organic carbon in the soil. When added to the sea, it can reduce acidification, and stimulate growth of diatoms and other forms of biomass in the sea.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 10px;">This is a win-win solution, Schuiling says, as it helps grow more food, while combating global warming. To add another win, it can also produce drinking water that is healthier than rain water. Schuiling recommends cities to build <a href="http://www.innovationconcepts.eu/res/literatuurSchuiling/olivinehills.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #006699; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">olivine hills</a>, to remove carbon dioxide from the air while filtering water.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 10px;">There's is <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjUuJt4chyk" rel="nofollow" style="color: #006699; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">a video</a> with more background, in Dutch with English subtitles. Also have a look at <a href="ftp://ftp.geog.uu.nl/pub/posters/2008/Let_the_earth_help_us_to_save_the_earth-Schuiling_June2008.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #006699; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">this poster</a>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OzdfVsS9KQM/UcF1uhM9avI/AAAAAAAAKF4/AMjkJkDQf14/s1600/550x288.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OzdfVsS9KQM/UcF1uhM9avI/AAAAAAAAKF4/AMjkJkDQf14/s1600/550x288.jpg" /></a></div><strong><br />
</strong> <strong>Comments</strong><br />
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</strong> <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-maxqm5C7LtM/UcF22LM-qOI/AAAAAAAAKGI/OuB3Ou0uz18/s1600/ALCfeebates440x300.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-maxqm5C7LtM/UcF22LM-qOI/AAAAAAAAKGI/OuB3Ou0uz18/s1600/ALCfeebates440x300.jpg" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white;"><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">What works best is implementation of feebates that put in place combinations of local financial incentives and disincentives, as illustrated by the image on the right. </span></span></span><br />
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</strong> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Energy feebates, working in a parallel yet complimentary way, can clean up energy supply within a decade, while feebates as pictured above can continue to bring carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere </span><a href="http://knol.google.com/k/sam-carana/the-way-back-to-280-ppm/7y50rvz9924j/78" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">back to 280 ppm</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">, as well as bring down carbon dioxide levels in the oceans.</span><br />
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</strong> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Rock grinding should be part of a </span><a href="http://knol.google.com/k/towards-a-sustainable-economy" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">comprehensive policy</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"> that also includes replacing fuel with renewable energy and support for biochar. The latter is also discussed in the posts </span><a href="http://knol.google.com/k/biochar" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Biochar</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"> and </span><a href="http://knol.google.com/k/sam-carana/the-biochar-economy/7y50rvz9924j/88" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">The Biochar Economy</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">.</span><br />
<span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">As the above diagrams try to show, biochar and olivine sand can be combined in soil supplements, to help </span><a href="http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474979698484" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">bring carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere back to 280ppm</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">. Rebates could be financed from fees on nitrogen fertilizers, livestock products and Portland cement.</span><br />
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</strong> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Enhanced weathering is possible with other types of rock, but more easily done with olivine. The paper </span><a href="http://www.innovationconcepts.eu/res/literatuurSchuiling/olivineagainstclimatechange23.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Olivine against climate change and ocean acidification</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"> includes the map below with the global distribution of dunite massifs. By removing their lateritic overburden, the underlying dunites (rocks that consists of > 90% olivine) can be mined. </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5t2k4FbvSYM/UcF3XQskY9I/AAAAAAAAKGQ/HUjTDxVlziQ/s1600/774655774553477.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5t2k4FbvSYM/UcF3XQskY9I/AAAAAAAAKGQ/HUjTDxVlziQ/s1600/774655774553477.jpg" /></a></div><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">As the image on the right shows, there's no need for long distance transport. One dot often represents several dunites and olivine is available in abundance at many places across the globe.</span><br />
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</strong> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">The benefits are great and this looks like one of the most economic ways to bring down carbon dioxide levels. </span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;" /> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">The energy can come from wind energy, which is clean, price-competitive and available in abundance in many places. Rock grinding, the transport and distribution can be largely automated, and take place predominantly at off-peak hours, while wind energy can be supplied very economically at off-peak hours.</span><br />
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</strong> <span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Olivine sand can also be combined well with biochar, as soil supplement. Have a look at the post </span><a href="http://biochareconomy.blogspot.com/2012/03/biochar-economy.html" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; color: #006699; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">the Biochar Economy</a><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4opv8eAfbkA/UcF3wVvVHpI/AAAAAAAAKGY/ejr3nbsV44I/s1600/82363441214376587-497.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4opv8eAfbkA/UcF3wVvVHpI/AAAAAAAAKGY/ejr3nbsV44I/s1600/82363441214376587-497.jpg" /></a></div><span face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br />
</span> <strong><br />
</strong> <strong>Further reading:</strong><br />
<a href="http://feebates.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Feebates</a><br />
<a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/05/biomass.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Biomass</a><br />
<a href="http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2008/10/removing-carbon-from-air-discovery.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Carbon Air Capture and Algae Bags</a><br />
<a href="http://geoengineering.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474979949059" style="text-decoration: none;">Enhanced weathering</a><br />
<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/oxygenating-arctic.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Oxygenating the Arctic</a><br />
<a href="http://trpns.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Ozone-Hole-Repair.pdf" style="text-decoration: none;">Ozone hole recovery</a><br />
<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/decomposing-atmospheric-methane.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Enhanced methane decomposition</a><br />
<a href="http://change-the-world.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474977577130" style="text-decoration: none;">Desalination</a><br />
<a href="http://biochareconomy.blogspot.com/2012/04/vortex-towers-could-vegetate-deserts.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Vortex towers could vegetate deserts</a><br />
<a href="http://urbanplanning.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474977316789" style="text-decoration: none;">Carbon-negative building</a><br />
<a href="http://sustainable-policy.blogspot.com/2013/06/when-will-we-see-the-light.html" style="text-decoration: none;">LEDs: When will we see the light?</a><br />
<a href="http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/thermal-expansion.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Thermal expansion of the Earth's crust necessitates geo-engineering</a><br />
<a href="http://sustainable-economy.blogspot.com/2011/09/towards-sustainable-economy.html" style="text-decoration: none;">Towards a Sustainable Economy</a><br />
<a href="http://280ppm.blogspot.com/2011/07/way-back-to-280-ppm.html" style="text-decoration: none;">The way back to 280 ppm</a></div>Sam Caranahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12376449209858411775noreply@blogger.com