Showing posts with label Stephen Salter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stephen Salter. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Supersonic and high velocity Subsonic Saltwater and Freshwater Cloud Making Cannons

Aaron Franklin
By Aaron Franklin

As a compliment to cloud brightening systems, these for use in calm blue sky conditions, or windy blue sky conditions, over Ocean, sea and glacial ice, and land permafrost.

Also may be very important this year for as high tech cloud brightening/making doesn't look like it will be easy to get out in large unit numbers, while there is existing firepump systems that are available in numbers we need now.

Also are essentially no different from snowmaking gear used on ski fields, except for making snow, lower velocity is fine, and no CCN's are required. Just air below 0C, and freshwater.

- High pressure / high volume fire-fighting/water cannon pump gear can be used as is, or modified for higher pressure and kW capacities to increase output volumes at similar nozzle velocities.

An aerated system looks best at this point because:
  • By using de Laval nozzles ( convergent-divergent, supersonic and tight stream output ) the aerated water can be accelerated by expansion to high velocity or Supersonic speed as it leaves the divergent exit section of the nozzle.
  • Nozzle friction is reduced because air sticks to the surface and creates a gaseous boundary layer.
  • For Aeration, copper or soft stainless tubes CNC laser perforated, swaged to flare to hexagonal ends, stacked for a honeycomb aeration section (just like a ww2 spitfire radiator except they had the water on the outside of the tubes and no holes) fed with compressed air, in the water feed before the pumps can entrain microbubbles in the water. 
  • Alternatively supersonic streams can be achieved with unaerated water with convergent nozzles, but more pressure is required.
  • The high kinetic energy of the water stream will cause excellent dispersion, and evaporation, via transonic shockwaves as the stream slows, shedding its outer layer as it goes, eventually disintegrating completely either below the altitude where enough kinetic energy, has converted to gravitational potential energy for the stream to go transonic if the stream is below a critical diameter, or not far above that altitude if its above that diameter.
  • If its a high velocity Subsonic jet it will still shatter the droplets and evaporate lots of, if not all of them by air turbulence and high differential speed energy conduction/friction evaporation.
  • We need to look at freshwater versions as well. This because saltwater rain will be fine over open oceans but it landing on ice and land permafrost will make them melt faster. And saltwater rain on land living ecologies is not at all good either. There's going to be a big use for them to protect the land permafrosts with cloud cover too. Freshwater versions will benefit from using water with diatoms growing in it, as these act as cloud droplet condensation nuclei, just like salt crystals.

    Seeding tundra lakes with diatoms will also eat CO2, oxygenate the water enhancing aerobic digestion of dissolved methane and other organic carbon. Removing the diatoms with the water for cloud cannons will also remove excess nutrients from the waters, provide aeration for skyborne digestion of DOC to CO2, and will clean up lakes to make them better for winter snow-making watersources.
  • We're going to need to straffe the sky with these things for best cloudmaking effect, so we need to get ready to mount them on naval gun turrets with computer controlled tracking systems and look into parking tanks and APC's with suitable turrets on container ship decks.

    Using these tanks and APC's, maybe fixed installations when the wind is blowing, with cloud-cannons on the arctic tundras can help protect the permafrosts. 

Calculations and conclusions, for peer review:

These are based on a sonic speed case. Faster will give more range but less volume and slower more volume but less range, for a given pump system.

speed of sound 330m/s

Ep= mgh

Ek= 0.5mv^2

Ek sonic (1 kg water)= 0.5 x 1 x 330^2 = 54450J

54450=mgh=1 x 9.8m/s^2 x h

vertical ballistic altitude h=54450/9.8 = 5.556km


cloud water content = 0.3g/m^3

10m thickness= 3g/m^2

100m thickness= 30g/m^2

4 sqkm= 4,000,000 m^2


Fixed position still air straffing:

A=pi.r^2

r=sqrt(A/pi)


4 sqkm horizontal Cannon range r = sqrt(4/pi)= 1.12km


Moving ship, land tanker, or wind blowing fixed position straffing:

14m/s = 50km/hr (vehicle or wind velocity)

-4 sqkm per hr requires only 4/50= 80m watercannon range.


Water volume and flow rates:

4sqkm at 10m thick= 12000 liters= 12 tons (less than 10min with flow rates of existing fire pumps)

at 100m thick = 120 tons (could be less than an hour per firepump)

1 small Supersonic cloud cannon could produce 24hr x 4sqkm/hr = 96sqkm of 100m thick cloud per day.


Kinetic energy:

120,000 liters per hr / 3600 = 33.3 L/s

12,000 liters per hr / 3600 = 3.3 L/s

Ek Sonic 1kg = 54.45 kJ


kW 100m thick, 4sqkm cloud layer in an hr = 33.3 L/s x 54.45kJ = 1813 kW

- existing pump designs would need to be upgraded for higher power/pressure to produce this much cloud, if supersonic velocities are required, but this is a very small engineering challenge. Ships trawler size and up, and tanks have more than enough kWs for the job. Rapid small amplitude vertical oscillation of the jet release angle should lay down the average 100m thick cloud bank aimed for.

kW 10m thick, 4sqkm cloud layer in an hr = 3.3 L/s x 54.45kJ = 181.3 kW

- this looks good for mobile straffing with existing fire pumps, provided aerated water and deLavel nozzles are used to produce supersonic velocities. The range required for 4 sqkm per hr coverage at only 80m is no problem for the small volume, aerated supersonic water flows possible from existing fire pumps.


Latent heat of evaporation and Ek sonic considerations:

latent heat of evaporation water = 2260 kJ per L

Ek sonic water = 54.45 kJ per L

  • If the very small water droplets produced by transonic shockwaves shattering any water breaking from the decaying jet should partially or fully evaporate (this will depend on stream velocity) they will be doing this by absorbing a lot of heat from the air they are landing in. This will cool and supersaturate the air with water vapour, and result in rapid droplet condensation in both saltwater and freshwater versions proposed.
  • I am advised that we can expect around 60% humidity levels in arctic conditions. As the evaporative cooling effect will cool the air that the stream droplets land in, and vast quantities of very small cloud nucleation salt crystals will be formed, we can expect a lot more cloud to be formed than the above examples suggest.
  • Aeration should result in more and smaller salt crystals, and droplets. In part due to microbubbles enhancing droplet fragmentation. Also due to supersaturation of the water with air, enhanced by evaporation. This causing many disturbances per drop as new bubbles precipitate, and initiate many salt crystals per droplet to precipitate. Turbulence will also initiate precipitation of air and salt crystals in the supersaturated droplet.
  • How much extra cloud will depend on how much atmosperic turbulence and mixing is generated by the straffing pattern, and on local temperature and humidity conditions.
  • Less mixing will also result in larger cloud droplets.
  • Too much mixing will run the risk of forming little cloud at all, as the humidity levels may be too low to form any droplets at all around the salt crystals.
  • It's quite likely that 500-600kph will be sufficient velocity. This would produce about 15 litres per second from standard firepump gear. A good estimate seems to be that this would initially produce around 100sqkm of 100m thick cloud bank per day. However from what I am hearing there is likely to be a repeating cycle of droplet evaporation - re nucleation of new droplets - back to droplet evaporation, due to the added water vapour and downwind cooling effects. So total cloud produced may be more than this.
  • We should start testing on these ASAP. Others doing testing too, would be a good thing.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Coded modulation of computer climate models for the prediction of precipitation and other side-effects of marine cloud brightening

by Stephen Salter, University of Edinburgh, and Alan Gadian, University of Leeds.


Background

In 1990 John Latham [1] suggested that the Twomey effect [2] [3] could be used to slow or reverse global warming by increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Reflectivity depends on the size distribution of drops. For the same amount of liquid water a large number of small drops is whiter than a smaller number of big ones. Latham suggested the release of submicron drops of filtered sea water into the marine boundary layer below or near mid-oceanic stratocumulus clouds in regions where the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei is low and cloud drops are large. Evaporation would produce salt residues which are excellent cloud condensation nuclei. Turbulence would disperse them through the marine boundary layer. They would increase the number but reduce the size of drops in the cloud. Twomey suggested that, for many cloud conditions, a doubling of the number of nuclei would increase cloud top reflectivity by about 0.058.

Several independent climate models [4], [5], [6], show that the amount of spray that would be needed to reverse the thermal effects of changes since pre-industrial times is quite small, of the order of 10 cubic metres a second for the whole world. The thermal effects of double preindustrial CO2 concentration would still be manageable. Furthermore the technique intercepts heat flowing from the tropics to the poles and so cools them no matter where the spraying is done. It should therefore be possible to preserve Arctic ice. Local control and rapid response may allow thermal protection of coral reefs. Design of wind-driven vessels and spray equipment is well advanced [7].

The aim of this proposal is to identify and quantify potential side-effects of marine cloud brightening. We want to produce an everywhere-to-everywhere transfer-function of spray quantity with regard to temperature, precipitation, polar ice, snow cover and vegetation using several leading climate models in parallel. This should especially show the times and places at which spraying should NOT be done. The technique involves changing the concentration of condensation nuclei at many spray regions round the world according to coded sequences unique to each region and correlating this sequence with model results at observing stations round the world. A first test on a set of 16 artificial changes with different magnitudes to a real 20-year temperature record showed that the magnitude of each change could be detected to 1% or 2% of the standard deviation. This is better than many thermometers. Confidence has been boosted by the PhD project carried out by Ben Parkes at Leeds who has shown that the effects on precipitation are bi-directional.

The technique may let us steer towards beneficial climate patterns if only the world community can agree what these are.

The differences between climate models may point to general model improvements for which there is plenty of room.

As well as humanitarian benefits the project may lead to better understanding of atmospheric physics and teleconnections.

Previous work

One of the early attempts at the identification of side effects was in 2009 by Jones, Haywood and Boucher of the Hadley Centre [8]. They picked three regions representing only 3.3% of the world ocean area and raised the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei to 375 per cubic centimetre everywhere in the regions from initial values of 50 to 300. The regions were off California, off Peru and off Angola / Namibia. These are labelled NP for North Pacific, SP for South Pacific and SA for south Atlantic in figure 1, top left. These areas usually have good conditions for cloud cover and solar input. Parts close to the coast have rather high nuclei concentrations. They are good but by no means the only suitable sites for cloud spraying. The increased nuclei concentration was held steady regardless of summer/winter, monsoons or the phase of the el Nino Southern oscillation. The resulting global cooling for the separate regions was 0.45, 0.52, and 0.34 watts per square metre giving a mean annual total of 1.31 watts per square metre. However if all of the regions sprayed together all of the time the 3.3% of ocean area would cool a little less, 0.97 watts per square metre. Even the lower amount of cooling would be a substantial fraction of the widely-accepted increase of 1.6 watts per square metre since preindustrial times.

Present global climate models are good at predicting temperature but are less accurate for precipitation, ice and snow. They cannot predict cloud cover, hurricanes or flood events. Climate change with no geo-engineering is already producing extremes floods in Pakistan and Queensland with droughts in South Australia, the Horn of Africa and the United States.

The Jones, Hayward and Boucher results show that albedo control can both increase and reduce precipitation far from the spray source, even in the opposite hemisphere. Spray from California (NP) shown in the top right of the figure can nearly double rainfall in South Australia. Angola/Namibia (SA) give a useful increase, lower left, in Ethiopia, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. But most attention was given to the 15% reduction over the Amazon. Perhaps Brazilians watching recent television footage of dying children in Ethiopia and Sudan would be glad to have their own rainfall reduced to 2000 mm a year when necessary.

Figure 1. The separate effects of the spray regions in Jones Haywood and Boucher 2009.

Figure 2. The combined effect of all three spray sources of figure 1. This slide appeared on its own with no indication of the spray regions used and could imply that Amazon drying is the result of spray anywhere.
If all three regions in figure 1 spray simultaneously and continuously we get the result in figure 2. The combination is not the sum of the parts. The reduction in the Amazon is there but less marked. There are useful increases in Australia and in the Horn of Africa. The reduction in precipitation in South West Africa caused by the South Atlantic spray region has vanished. Jones et al. did not test other source positions, spray rates or seasonal variations relative to the monsoons.

More recent work by Gadian and Parkes at Leeds [9] used the coded modulation of the nuclei concentration of 89 spray sources of roughly equal area round all the oceans. They then correlated the individual sequences with the resulting weather records round the world. The modulation was done by multiplying or dividing initial nuclei concentration values by a factor chosen initially as 1.5. Because of the logarithmic behaviour of the Twomey equation this alternation should have had a low overall effect. The factor of 1.5 is a much weaker stimulus than an increase of 50 to 375 nuclei per cubic centimetre which would increase reflectivity by 0.168.

Figure 3. An example of the effect of all spray regions on two places in the Amazon. Drying from spray in the South Atlantic as predicted by the Hadley Centre is evident but could easily be countered by spray from many other regions, especially from south of the Aleutians.
The results in figure 3 show that, as well as the spray sources used by Jones et al., there are many other spray sources which will either increase or reduce precipitation in the Amazon. The two regions in the Amazon basin are shown black. Red shows sites which would increase precipitation at the black site and blue shows a reduction. The Amazon increases from the red spray sources off California and Peru are in agreement with the 2009 Hadley Centre result. The strongest blue in (b) off Namibia and the weaker blue off Angola in (a) are also in agreement. But the great majority of spray sites, particularly the one in (b) off Recife, show increases in the Amazon precipitation. The analysis will show maps like these for every observing station of interest. This could amount to many hundred maps depending on the resolving power of the climate models.

It is also possible to show the transfer function of each spray site on target regions on land all round the world. Figure 4 shows a sweep of spray sources along the east sides of the North and South Atlantic. There are alternating effects in South America and Australia. Spraying between the English Channel and Labrador has little effect in the Amazon or Australia but the next region south increases rain in both. The Atlantic coast off Mauritania further increases Amazon precipitation, gives weaker precipitation in eastern Australia but dries the west. A block from Liberia to Nigeria has little effect on either the Amazon or Australia but is close to where hurricanes begin. Angola confirms the Hadley centre drying of the south Amazon but not the north. Namibia reverses this. Spray off the Cape of Good Hope increases rainfall both regions of the Amazon but the effect fades as we spray from further south. Spray further south increase rain in the Indian sub-continent and Japan.

The maximum swings are 0.0006 mm per day for each percentage variation of the initial nuclei concentration. This means that for the 100% nuclei increase needed to give a reflectivity increase of 0.057, the annual precipitation change would be 0.0006 x 365 x 100 mm = 21.9 mm per year. This is much smaller than precipitation changes indicated by the Hadley Centre but the size of individual spray regions is somewhat lower. The Hadley Centre increase from 50 per cubic centimetre in a clean spray region to 375 is a much stronger stimulus by a factor of 15 and a reflectivity increase of 0.168. The offshore edge of the Hadley test regions would have presented an impossibly high slope of nuclei concentration. Perhaps climate systems react just as badly to sharp changes as engineering components under stress.

The full Parkes thesis can be downloaded from [9]

Figure 4. A sweep of spray regions along the east side of North and South Atlantic show cyclical effects on precipitation in South America and Australia. Ben Parkes’ work provides 89 such maps.
The symbols in figure 4 show the scatter of precipitation results from 8 runs with different sequences from 89 spray sites on the Arabian region. Blue bars show standard deviations. A low scatter implies reliable operation of the technique but is not universal. While the general trend is towards slightly more precipitation, there are changes in both directions with less scatter in the wetter direction.

Figure 5. If the results of perturbations from separate runs with different code sequences show a large scatter we can deduce that the technique is not working well for that combination of source and observing station.

Work programme

Because of the poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and in the absence of any better prediction method, we want to use a multiple approach with at least five different climate models driven by different research groups attempting the same jointly agreed objectives but with some freedom to follow interesting results. Suggestions for the central questions which should be tackled by all groups are as follows. They must be debated and approved but then adhered to.

Correlation lag. The changes to weather are not immediate so we should include a time lag between the release and the autocorrelation period. There may also be several time lags with different durations. We can make good estimates by choosing a plausible guess for the response period, driving all or a subset of spray sources in unison to add a sinusoidal component at that period to the nuclei concentration, running the climate model, subtracting the mean offset at each observing station round the world and multiplying the mean response by the sine and cosine signals. This will produce two offset means. The tangent of the phase lag of the response at each observing station will be the cosine offset divided by the sine offset. Repeating the process for various periods will allow the choice of correlation lag for each observing station. The amplitude and phase of the response as a function for period will give an interesting insight into the important climate system processes but does not allow the separation of effects from individual spray sources as is possible with coded modulation.

Coded modulation sequences. Random number generators can, by chance, produce short groups with abnormal auto-correlation. Andrew Jarvis at Lancaster can give sequences without these. When God made random sequences He made a great many so we can all use different ones but it will be interesting to compare results of the same sets of sequences in different models.

Change-over period. The encoding sequence can be seen as a series of coin tosses. Each toss decides whether the spray/not spray mode should be reversed or left alone. If the coin is tossed too frequently then the weather system will not have time to respond. But, if the intervals are too long, the length of the computer run needed to get a reasonably low scatter will be expensive. Perhaps initially the very shortest change-over period should be about the time for which reliable forecasts can be made, perhaps ten days. At each possible change-over period there will be a 50% chance of no change and a 25% chance of getting three ‘no-change’ events in a row and so on. Carbon emissions vary over a weekly cycle and the release of decay gases and di-methyl sulphide from seaweed can be related to the 28 day tidal cycle so we must avoid being phase-locked to these periods. Parkes used a change-over period of 10 days for computational efficiency and a case can be made for 20 days. We should later extend the changeover period but not to the point where too many changes spread across a monsoon period.

Monsoon season. All the work so far has used continuous spray through the year. It might occur to even a naïve engineering person that the monsoon seasons could possibly have an effect on patterns of precipitation and evaporation. This means that we should do separate correlations and calculate separate transfer functions according to the monsoon phase. If the technique shows promise and computing time is available we may be able to resolve transfer functions down to monthly levels provided that we can get resources to allow the use of high resolution models.

Spray amplitude. The susceptibility of an ocean spray region is a function of low cloud, clean air incoming solar energy and perhaps wind to drive spray vessels and disperse spray. Large spray volumes in what initially appear to be regions of high susceptibility will reduce that susceptibility. A lower dose over a wider region will be more effective. Multiplying and dividing the initial nuclei concentration value by 1.5 was quite small but we do not know that it is the best choice. A sweep over multiplying and dividing amplitudes from 1.25, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4.5 will help us choose the best spray amplitude(s) for later work.

Spray asymmetry. The Twomey results can be condensed into an equation which says that the change in reflectivity is 1/12 of the natural log of the ratio of nuclei concentration. The log term led to the decision to multiply and divide initial nuclei concentration values by a constant rather than by the usual addition of some chosen amount. It was intended to cancel the mean thermal effects in other regions. However it may be that the multiplier should not be exactly equal to the divider. We need to establish the best numbers to use for the lowest external interference so as to minimise interference between regions. A possible method might be to use results of the sinusoidal modulation. Any departure from a sinusoidal wave form produces harmonics which can be detected by multiplying the signal minus its mean by the sine and cosine of 2, 3, 4 etc. times the fundamental.

Spray concentration profile. While time constraints forced Parkes to use blocks of spray with sharp edges it would be more realistic to have smoother variations of nuclei concentration, perhaps with the bell-shaped Gaussian concentration.

Number and position of spray sources. The Parkes choice of 89 spray regions was not made with any great confidence. We wanted at least two across the narrow section of the Atlantic. Parkes started with equal areas but then divided them round the Caribbean and either side of Iceland because of the current patterns. Some climate models show strange alterations either side of the equator in the Pacific. There is no need for spray regions to have equal areas provided that we can give each an appropriate weighting. There is no need for everyone to use the same regions provided that research result maps (discussed later) can give a common presentation. Individual selections should be encouraged and results merged to avoid blocky results.

Regions might be merged if there is little difference between their susceptibilities or divided if differences between adjacent neighbours are large provided that the spray regions are large enough to produce a consistent forcing over several grid points.

Region grouping. It is well known that climate patterns all over the world are affected by temperature differences across the South Pacific, not always to advantage. It will be interesting to drive the cloud nuclei concentration differentially either side of the Pacific with code sequences of each side in unison in a number of coherent ways. Two obvious ones are first an equal 50/50 east/west split with a sharp divide, secondly a linear ramp with concentration depending on distance either side of the midline and thirdly a blend of positive and negative Gaussian distributions. Other Boolean combinations of spray regions can be chosen but with the risk that this could lead to a combinatorial explosion of possibilities and so we need careful planning.

Tactical spraying. There is no need for spray rates to be preordained and fixed for a whole experiment. For example if we see that surface temperatures in the Pacific are forming an el Niño or la Niña pattern and we know the cooling power of world spray sites, even ones far from the Pacific, we can drive them so as to increase or reduce the Southern Oscillation. The spray can be in phase with the temperature anomaly or its rate of change or even at some other phase angle. The orientation of the jet-stream waves might be a powerful indicator. A force opposing change of position of a system, ie. a spring, will increase its oscillation frequency. Control engineers know that very small amounts of damping (a force opposing velocity) or its opposite, can have very large effects on the growth or decay of oscillations. We like error sensors and actuators with a high frequency-response and low phase-shift. Tropospheric cloud albedo control has an attractively rapid response – a few days compared with stratospheric sulphur at low latitudes which is about two years. With sufficiently high resolution we may also detect early signs of hurricane formation.

Ganging up. We may learn something about the climate system by using independent spray patterns to identify all the spray regions which have the same effect on one observation station, such as drying Queensland, and then driving then in unison. We then reverse the selection to all the spray regions which increase Queensland precipitation.

Map projections. The site http://egsc.usgs.gov/isb/pubs/MapProjections/projections.html gives a useful selection and explanation of map projections. All projections of a solid globe to a flat plane involve some distortions but we can choose between distorting area, direction, shape or distances at various places in the map. The Mercator projection is very common but produces gross distortion of east/west distances and areas at the high latitudes which are now seen to be of very great importance to climate change. For polar areas the Lambert azimuthal equal-area projection looks best. We can tilt this projection in other directions so that several images can show the whole world with acceptable distortion. The obvious starting one would be six Lambert azimuthal views, two from the poles and four from the equator at longitudes of 0, 90, 180 and 270 degrees and an option to set any other latitude and longitude for any other view. It can be very useful to have a transparent layer of one parameter laid over another but this will need coordination of page layout. Six 90 mm diameter circles on a 100 mm pitch can fit neatly on one page of A4 or letter page with room for arrows to adjacent balloons. If necessary we can fit 12 on an A3. A single 180 mm circle can be used to show finer detail. The modelling teams must consider the question carefully, come to a joint view and then stick to the common decision and page scale.

Solid modelling packages (e.g. SolidWorks) are increasingly common for engineering design and several offer free viewing software to let customers spin images of engineering components about any axis. A spinning image can give a good presentation of complex three-dimensional shapes. It should be possible to modify software to give surface colours with 10 saturation levels and text to regions of a spinning sphere.

Mapping contours. Result maps need to show the magnitude and slope of at least temperature, precipitation, evaporation ice and snow cover. While a continuous rainbow spectrum looks beautiful and gives a superficial impression of work done it is almost useless at providing any numerical information beyond the position of a peak. There are some meteorological result maps which have colour allocations that are particularly unhelpful, for example the one below.

Figure 6. How not to display the results of a climate model. The lead author of the paper from which this figure was taken agrees with me but was unable to challenge official policy. No names no pack-drill. Result format for this project may be dictatorial but will be more intelligent.
The area of ‘no change’ is between the lighter buff colour and the darker green. It covers a large fraction of the map. The polarity of the contour gradient is not obvious where light green moves to cyan or the darker buff moves to orange. Light green is a stronger effect than dark green. Numbers on the colour code bar refer to the borders not the middle of contours. Readers may confuse this map for precipitation with another map for temperature which uses the same colour set.

The right presentation of results can reveal the reasons for the most peculiar phenomena. We must make it as quick and as easy as possible for lazy, tired, non-technical readers to see effects with the minimum of mental decoding effort even when they are looking at a great many different maps.

The first requirement is that areas with effects that are below the level of statistical significance or the middle of the range should be white. Either side of this region there should be just two colours with increasing saturation. Red and blue would be intuitive for temperature with green and brown for river runoff. The male human eye can reliably distinguish 10 saturation levels provided regions are in contact with sharp edges. (Females have higher discrimination.) This gives a range of 20 steps (more than most result maps) plus a white central zero for the mean or the anomaly reference. The steps give an obvious direction of gradients. Adults, babies, birds and many animals can count up to five in an instant ‘analogue’ way. If we have thin black contour lines between the lowest five saturation steps and thin white lines between each of the top five colours we can avoid getting lost. We can also include black or white text numbers to show the contour value and total area of the contour region. An example is shown below.


Astronomers developed a very powerful technique to detect changes in the position or brightness of astronomical objects. Two images of star fields containing thousands of objects, taken at different times but with exactly the same magnification, would be shown alternately at intervals of about one second. A change in any one of them would be immediately apparent. We can adapt this for use with PowerPoint images to detect small differences in maps of model results provided that we can standardise the presentation format across all groups. We can also flicker through a sweep of many small changes in time or nuclei concentration.

Reports should have verbose comments and complete meta-data close to each map with minimum risk of confusion between them. This means frequent repetition and no jumps to other pages, or even other journals as is sometimes done. The clarity of caption wording should be tested by naive readers, rather than the intimidatory style of many journals.

Results can be presented as absolute values or as anomalies from some agreed reference baseline. We must agree on a small selection of base lines such as preindustrial, 1960-90, present, x 2 preindustrial CO2 or one of the, now discredited, IPPC scenarios. We must also be able to show instantly the differences between sets of results from different codes or institutions such as Pacific North-Western minus Hadley Centre. We must be able to combine results with various weightings from different teams. This will require an agreement between the teams of what the format should be, followed by their obedience to the agreement. It will be important to get advice from good information technology experts.

Blockiness. Because of pressure of time the Parkes thesis results were presented as blocks with sharp edges which are unusual in meteorology except for either sides of mountain ranges or places like the Cape of Good Hope. We should agree on a method to produce smoothly blended curves for both spray concentration regions and results.

Naming of sea areas. We must make it easy for people to know which of many possible spray regions are being discussed even if they are not the same as the original Parkes 89. One way is to pick a spot at the centroid of an ocean and then give the bearing and distance of a spray region under discussion in terms of the bearing and distance from the ocean centroid. Two digits are enough to identify runways at airports and most regions will be larger than 100 kilometres or a few model grid points so, for example, we could use a description such as South Pacific 18, 30 for a spray region 3000 kilometres south of the ocean centroid.

Numerical data. If we want daily results of 4 parameters affected by 100 spray regions for 500 different observing stations over 20 years with two-byte precision we will have to access nearly a Terabyte of information. Requirements are unlikely to shrink. We want this to be made freely accessible to anyone. We need verbose and intuitive labels and selection filters with same look and feel from all modelling groups. Subsets should be available in a widely used format, agreed by all teams such as netCDF and GrADS. People should normally supply numerical results in a common, agreed and widely-used format. If other formats have to be used then the teams should provide conversion software or do the conversions themselves on request.

Carbon dioxide variation. We should first test the technique with an agreed level of atmospheric greenhouse gases. If we can establish confidence in the coded modulation technique we can later experiment with changes to gas concentrations. Obvious ones are pre-industrial, double pre-industrial, ramped rises at various rates, methane burps and even the effects of plausible rates of CO2 removal. However access to present real observations will be useful and so there is a strong case for using present day gas concentrations unless there is a sudden need for work on methane burps.

Political information. Models will be able to produce results of several climate parameters of the effect of all the spray regions at places all round the world. There are many ways in which we could select target regions. One obvious one is the present political boundaries of 193 UN Member States. If a climate model has a resolution of one degree each cell has a side of 111 kilometres. It takes about eight points to draw a convincing sine wave so the size of result contour will be larger than the smaller countries. This means that some of the smallest ones will have to be grouped. This could be a matter requiring some delicacy. For large or elongated countries we can subdivide the area such as either side of a mountain range or north and south for countries in the Sahel. This would allow each country to choose which spray regions and times would give it the maximum benefit with the least dis-benefit to others. It might then be possible to understand and maximise the winner-to-loser ratio and even to decide on compensation. It is defeatist to assume that the outcomes will inevitably be unfavourable. The results of any pair of parameters predicted by each climate model for each country can be shown by plotting the model name on a map with, say, the vertical coordinate being temperature and the horizontal coordinate being precipitation. A close clustering of results from different models will add confidence. We must resist the temptation to place models in rank order. The objective should be model improvement and good science can come by sometimes testing opposites.

Specific Questions

There is a grave risk of a combinatorial explosion suppressing the detection of differences between climate models and so initially we must agree on as many test conditions as possible. The following are suggestions for debate.

  • What spray rates, change-over periods, concentration profiles and correlation delays should be used for commonly-agreed experiments?
  • What level of scatter will still allow us to draw useful conclusions?
  • What level of model resolution should be used?
  • How does scatter vary with the length of run?
  • How does scatter vary with the size of target area?
  • Do we need to merge target areas?
  • How does scatter vary with spray source and observing station?
  • What spray regions, spray rates and spray seasons will produce unacceptable changes?
  • Can scatter be low enough to allow seasonal or monthly transfer functions?
  • How far does the Twomey log equation for nuclei-concentration to change-of-reflectivity hold?
  • What ratio of multiplier to divider will minimise interference between spray sources?
  • Negative modulations are easy in a computer model but less so in the real world. How does susceptibility vary if the modulation is asymmetric or is only positive?
  • How does the susceptibility for temperature, precipitation and ice cover vary with the amplitude of the perturbation?
  • Will tactical variations based on day-to-day observations be useful for hurricanes and precipitation adjustment in both directions?
  • Are there large winner-to-loser ratios?
  • Can overall winner-to-loser ratios be minimized?
  • What other experiments do you suggest?
  • What is the probability that this project would improve the reliability of climate models?


Milestones and Deliverables


  • Agreement on result presentation, data format and low-level common analysis software packages.
  • Circulation and analysis of the existing Ben Parkes results.
  • Agreement on target parameters such as, temperature, precipitation, evaporation, ice, snow-line, vegetation and CO2 level.
  • Agreement between teams on timescales for deliverables.
  • Measurement of the phase and amplitude response to allow choices of correlation lags.
  • Maps of spray site susceptibility, defined as the annual change of each result parameter per unit of spray volume.
  • As above with spraying adjusted with a selection of correlations linked to the monsoon seasons. Even if the computer models cannot detect the onset of a monsoon we can use historic records to pick dates.
  • Investigation of tactical spray rate variation.
  • Results for groups of spray regions working in unison or subtle harmony especially with Trans-Pacific amplification and attenuation of el Niño / la Niña oscillations.
  • Design of a world-wide spray plan to cool the planet with the minimum winner/loser ratio.
  • Identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the various climate models leading to suggestions for improvement.


Chaos

Objectors to cloud albedo control have argued that the climate system is chaotic and so nothing can be done to direct it. There have been a great many phenomena such as planetary motions, chemical reactions, the incidence of disease and the motions of sea waves which were thought to be chaotic by the leading thinkers of the day. But Kepler showed that elliptical planetary orbits followed rules more precise than any man-made machinery. Mendeleev produced his periodic table and was able to predict the properties of hitherto unknown elements. Pasteur developed germ theory. Test tanks can now produce complex sea states with repeatability of a few parts per thousand. An oscilloscope signal from any backplane connector of a computer appears to be entirely random string of zeros and ones but is in fact one of the most highly defined sequences that we can produce.

A favourite demonstration of chaotic behaviour uses the fall of sheets of paper from above the demonstrator’s head. The smallest increase of the angle of incidence between the paper and the apparent airflow produces a pitching moment to increase its value up to the moment of stall. Sheets will be scattered over a wide area. But if a sheets of paper is folded in the form of a paper dart to increase stiffness, and a weight is added to the nose then the area enclosing its falling positions is greatly reduced. Clearly the magnitude of chaos is variable and can be affected by small changes to engineering design. The scatter could be further reduced if the falling item was fitted with optical systems driving control surfaces. We could call it a GBU 12 Paveway bomb which has an accuracy of about one metre despite chaotically random cross winds. Similarly we could fit video cameras and hinge actuators to the nails of Galton’s bagatelle board.

There may really be systems such as turbulence and subatomic physics which are genuinely chaotic. But if we believe that systems which we cannot at present understand are chaotic then we remove completely our chances of scientific discovery. The common factor is that very small changes, like the angle of incidence of a sheet of paper, are amplified. This means that small amount of input energy applied intelligently can produce large changes in output energy. That is just what we need to control the very large amounts of energy in the planetary climate. Apparent chaos implies the possibility of success. Coded modulations could give valuable insights into the climate system as well as saving world food supplies.

Conclusions

The world can be compared to a vehicle with free-castor wheels which is rolling down a hill with increasing gradient. A few passengers are warning that there may be a cliff edge somewhere ahead. Some are suggesting that there might just be time to design and fit brakes, steering and even a reverse gear. Others advise that the slope ahead might level off and so brakes and steering would be a waste of money. Some objectors complain that the passengers could never agree on the best direction to steer. Some are close to claiming that God wants humanity to drive over the cliff edge and that it is wrong to interfere with divine intentions.

We could also consider the climate system as a piano in which the spray regions are the keys, some black some white, on which a wide number of pleasant (or less unpleasant) tunes could be played if a pianist knew when and how hard to strike each key.

References

1. Latham J. 1990 Control of global warming? Nature vol no 6291 pp 347 339-340.

2. Twomey, S. 1977 Influence of pollution on the short-wave albedo of clouds.
J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1149–1152. doi:10.1175/1520-0469

3. Schwartz, S. E. & Slingo, A. 1996 Enhanced shortwave radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols. In Clouds chemistry and climate (eds P. Crutzen & V. Ramanathan), pp. 191–236. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.

4. Latham J, Rasch P, Chen C-C, Kettles L, Gadian A, Gettelman A, Morrison H, Bower K, Choularton T. 2008.
Global temperature stabilization via controlled albedo enhancement of low-level maritime clouds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 366(1882): 3969–3987.

5. Rasch PJ , Latham J, Chen CC, 2009. Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) 045112 (8pp) doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045112.

6. Latham J, Bower K, Choularton T, Coe H, Connelly P, Cooper G, Craft T, Foster J, Gadian A, Galbraith L, Iacovides H, Johnston D, Launder B, Leslie B, Meyer J, Neukermans A, Ormond B, Parkes B, Rasch P, Rush J, Salter S, Stevenson T, Wang H, Wang Q, Wood R. 2012. Marine cloud brightening. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 370: 4217–4262, doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0086.

7. Salter S, Latham J, Sortino G. 2008. Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming. Phil.Trans.Roy. Soc. A. Doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0136

8. Jones A, Haywood J, Boucher O. 2009 Climate impacts of geoengineering marine stratocumulus clouds. Journal of Geophysical Research vol 114 D10106 . doi:10.1029/2008JD011450

9. Parkes B. Climate Impacts of Marine Cloud Brightening. 2012 Ph D Thesis University of Leeds. From http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~eebjp/thesis/

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Can we capture methane from the Arctic seabed?

Can we capture methane from the Arctic seabed?

Stephen H. Salter, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Scotland. 

Prepared for the John Nissen Methane Workshop, Chiswick 15,16 October 2011.

DRAFT 3 November with pressure ridge addition.

Methane is a greenhouse gas more than 100 times more effective than carbon dioxide in the short term.  It is stored in the form of clathrates which are unstable if pressure is lower or temperature is higher than a line on a pressure versus temperature graph. Figure 1 shows that the slope of the atmospheric concentration has sharply increased since 2007.  Previous high levels of methane were associated with the Permian mass extinction, 250 million years ago.

Figure 1. Anomalies of CH4 mean volume mixing ratios for Northern and Southern hemispheres courtesy Leonid Yurganov.  Updated mixing ratios (Dlugokencky et al., 2009) were subtracted from the seasonal cycles averaged over 2003-2007. The right scale shows the anomaly of total mass of CH4 in the tropospheric layer of each hemisphere. The growth has been continuing in 2010-2011, according to the updated satellite data by Frankenberg et al. 2011.


This note discusses the design problems of a system to deploy kilometre-sized areas of plastic film to collect methane from suitable areas of the sea bed.  The gas can be flared off at sea to convert it to less damaging carbon dioxide or perhaps, if there are very high flow rates, recovered by a gas carrier and used ashore.

There seem to be solutions to what appeared initially to be an insoluble problem.



The difficulties

When John Nissen first raised the problem of Arctic methane my initial reaction was that capture at the sea bed would be impossible.  But trying to design for the impossible can be interesting.  It seemed a useful exercise to identify the reasons for impossibility. We can list difficulties as follows:

  1. Methane release at very low flow rates over too wide an area.
  2. Release at very high rates over a small area such as a well blow-out.
  3. Rough seas during deployment.
  4. The presence of obstructions such as wreckage, rock outcrops, munitions or steep slopes.
  5. Fast, variable-direction or unpredictable currents.
  6. Equipment sinking into very soft ooze on the seabed.
  7. Hydrogen sulphide toxicity.
  8. Unacceptable biological consequences due to the presence of equipment.
  9. The need to recover everything at some date in the future.
  10. The pressure ridges shown by Peter Wadhams at the Chiswick workshop.

I now believe that despite these problems methane can be captured in quite large quantities from areas of several square kilometres of plastic film in a single installation. 

The design

The film sheet is packed into a pair of left and right-handed rubber trough cases [1] and [2] with a rectangular inner section as shown in figure 2. Each trough case carries two steel cables [3].  The trough cases would be produced by a continuous moulding/extrusion machine in lengths of several kilometres using plant similar to that used for electrical cables. The left and right handed pair are connected at the centre by two thin isthmus strips of material [4] [5] above and below a rectangular section passage.  The passage contains a rectangular section runner [6] with two blades [7] [8] which can be pulled through the full length of the extrusion by a steel cable. [9].   If the steel cable is pulled the two blades will cut the connection strips and the trough case halves will be separated. 

The underside of the   trough case extrusion has a moulded tread with a pattern of saw-tooth section ridges [10] lying at an angle of about 30 degrees to the length of the extrusion. This ridge angle is an important design parameter.  At the outer corners of the bottom of the insides of the trough cases are recesses [11] into which a bead on the edge of an extruded plastic sheet can be pushed.  The outer walls of the trough are much thicker than the inner walls and contain galleries [12] along which methane can be transported to riser pipes. They connect to the higher points of the saw-tooth moulding. A high-density filler is added to the rubber to make sure that it is heavier than cold sea water but not heavier than the ooze on the sea bed. The outer edges of the extrusion [13] are sloped like the front of a sledge.

At the bottom of figure 2 the troughs are shown filled with a zig-zag stack of flexible plastic with a density just greater than cold sea water and a thickness of about 200 microns.  The zig-zag stacks on each side a joined at the top [14].  The lower edges with a bead are pushed into the recesses in each trough.  This plastic would be produced by a second extrusion machine consisting of interdigital plates to be described later.  If the width of each trough is one metre and the trough depth is 150 mm there will be space for 750 layers of zig-zag plastic, giving an extended width of 1.5 kilometres when the zig-zags on the two sides are unpacked.  The stacks of plastic film can be packed securely by lid flaps [15] retained by a vacuum maintained through pipes [16]. 

The length of plastic and rubber would be wound in a single scroll on the drum of a pipe-laying vessel such as the Stena Apache.  A drum diameter of 35 meters could take a width of 1.5 kilometres and length of 3 kilometres, giving a capture area of 4.5 square kilometres.

Figure 2. Empty and filled extruded rubber trough cases with 4 times enlarged views of end and centre. 

Deployment.

Survey vessels with side-scan sonar and methane detection sensors would look for suitable sites with no large obstructions, suitable current velocities and comfortable methane emission rates.

Small obstructions can be levelled with robotic sea bed vehicles such as the one described at the 2011 EWTEC conference.

The pipe-laying vessel would take station well downstream of the target area and pay out the scrolled material to the sea bed as if it were oil pipe.  The extreme flexibility of the trough case (relative to 12 inch steel pipe) would allow wave tolerant J-lay rather than an S-lay release.

Once the full length of the package is on the sea bed (figure 3) it would be towed along the seabed by ropes attached to the fore end of the rubber extrusions until it reached a point before the start of the target area equal to the string length divided by the cosine of the ridge angle.  If possible the tow direction should be perpendicular to current and swell.

The central cable with knife blades would be pulled through the rubber extrusion to separate the two troughs.

The vacuum retaining the lid flaps will be released.

Towing to increase the width of the film can now begin. Towing from the pipe-laying vessel would mean lifting the leading edge of the pack and there might be disturbance by waves.  It is preferable to use a horizontal force from a sea bed walking vehicle.  There might sometimes be an advantage in raising and lowering the leading edge in the way used for aligning carpets.  The tow force would depend on the weight of the package in water and the coefficient of friction to the sea bed. This is expected to be about 250 kN.  This will set the size of the steel cables embedded in the rubber extrusions which transmit the tow force along the length of the rubber and the bollard pull of the tow vehicles.

The tow vehicles will keep the tow lines pointing along the line of the package but the angled ridges would make the two troughs move apart from each other and so the tow vehicles will take diverging courses. The layers of plastic film will be pulled away from the zig-zag stack, as shown in figure 3, with the weight of the retaining lids providing a gentle resisting force.. GPS systems will be used to keep the advance rate of the tow vehicles matched.

The small density difference between plastic and sea water will mean that the drag friction between plastic and sea bed will be very low with a factor of safety of several hundred relative to the plastic strength.

The ridges in the rubber extrusion will leave furrows on the surface of the seabed.  When the furrows are covered by the plastic sheet they will form passages for the removal of gas through galleries in the outer walls of the trough.

The outward movement of the trough cases will build up material from the sea bed at the front of the outer sledge faces.  Water moving through eductor jets [17] can move some of the sea bed material over the film.

The gas pipe connection from below the film to the surface will bring its pressure closer to atmospheric.  Eventually several bars of water pressure will clamp the film and trough casings firmly to the sea bed.


Figure 3. Deployment of the film using the side force from the inclined ridges at the bottom
of the trough cases. Proportions are grossly distorted.


Tooling

Thermo-plastic films can be made by heating pellets of the feed stock to their melting point, pumping the liquid material through fine gaps in an extrusion tool and progressively cooling the downstream section of the tool to a temperature at which the film can be handled. The energy requirement is the sum of melting heat and pumping pressure.  Much of the heat can be recycled back to the incoming feed stock. The product is easier to handle if the pumping is in a downward direction.

The tool will consist of one inner and two outer stacks of plates each of which consists of two half plates which have been machined with a zig-zag coolant channel and then riveted and spot-welded back together as shown in figure 4.   The key problem is maintaining an accurate gap, probably 200 microns, between inner and outer plates.  Gravitational sag will be avoided if plates are vertical.  At the top of the tool where the film material is still liquid the gap can be defined by streamlined shims but in the cooler regions it must be actively controlled with no physical blockage.

Material from a rolling mill usually has quite large flatness errors and a skin under compression.  The first step will be stress relief by raising the plate temperature to 650 C for an hour and cooling it slowly.

Toolroom surface grinders can work to a flatness better than 3 microns but if curved parts are held flat on a magnetic chuck the curvature will be restored when the magnetic flux is removed.  It will be necessary to hold the plates on a hot wax chuck as used in the optical industry.  It might be useful to consider a low-force cutting technique such as spark erosion.

Figure 4.    A grossly distorted plan view of the topology of the extrusion tool with exploded parts. A 1500 metre width would require 750 plates rather than eight.  Maintaining a gap for the film thickness is a challenging problem but may be done with differential temperature control. The tool for a 1500 metre width of film would weigh about 200 tonnes.  If the differential temperature idea is not feasible, smaller tools could be used but a way to store and join kilometre lengths edge to edge would be needed. Temporary coiling looks difficult.



Gap control

We can use an array of capacitance transducers to measure the gap between plates of an assembled stack.  We can cover the surfaces of plates with resistive heating elements either side of the cooling channels.  By differential control of the heating currents we can control the local curvature of a plate.  The coefficient of thermal expansion of stainless steel is 17 part per million per C degree.  A temperature difference of 1C across a 15 mm plate will induce a radius of curvature of 440 metres.  If the width of the heating element is 100 mm this means a deflection of 11 microns.

A neat way to provide plate deflection control is to divide the plate surfaces into 100 mm squares with a resistive layer filling most of the area.  The squares would be connected in series and driven with a constant current from a high impedance source rather than a constant voltage.  The current would be diverted around the heating element by a parallel, high-frequency switch operated for a variable fraction of the time.  A small fraction of the surface with a grounded guard backing would be given a high-frequency excitation to measure the capacitance to the adjacent plate.

Cold heat exchanger fluid will be pumped into the bottom of the vertical tooling plates and emerge from the top at nearly the melting temperature of the plastic film.  After some extra heating the fluid will then move downwards through a vertical-tube heat-exchanger to melt the incoming plastic.

Solidified film coming out of the bottom of the tool will be further cooled by an upward flow air which will then be directed down through a bed of rising feed pellets and shredded plastic being recycled.  Air can flow easily through gaps between pellets or shredded feed stock.  The surface area of pellets is large even if heat transfer per unit area is low. Heat can flow more easily between liquids.  However there will be an awkward gap between solid but nearly molten pellets in the air in the pellet heat exchanger and liquid in the one above it.  Although the temperature difference might be quite small the amount of latent heat of fusion might be substantial. 

Gas flow rates

A slide (number 34) from the Shakova - Semiletov paper given at the November 30 2010 DoD workshop in Washington, gives a figure for methane flux of 44 grams per square metre a day over half a 500 metre transect, shown below.   This is well above other observations.   The calorific value of methane is 55 MJ per kilogram so this would be a thermal power of 28 MW per square kilometre.  These conditions might well not apply to the full film area and, at this rate, it would probably not be worth collecting methane on a ship.  In future the rate, and gas prices, might increase. However the power level should be enough to drive a mechanism with chain saws and heat transfer pipes to keep a clear hole for a flaring stack in a moving winter ice field if methane release in winter was thought to be a problem.  

Size of release plumes

This paper has described what I believe to be the largest possible collector area using present technology.  We need to know more about the size and spacing of release plumes to decide if the area has to be as large as this.  One example of the kind of data needed is given in figure 5.  

Figure 5. An echo sounder image giving the size of methane plumes from Shakhova et al.. This shows a transect of about 500 metres in the Laptev sea showing bubble plume return features
and also zooplankton other non-bubble scatterers such as fish.


Material quantities

The Shakhova presentation also mentioned total areas of methane hot spots of 210,000 square kilometres, the area of a square of side 460 kilometres.  The proposed design needs about 200 tonnes of plastic film per square kilometre. Total world consumption of plastics in 2010 was about 300 million tonnes and forecast to rise to 538 million in 2020.  Protecting the Shakova area with coverings which lasted 10 years would take about 1.5% of total present world plastic production.

Recovery

Maintenance would be very difficult and is not planned. But anyone putting anything into the sea has an ethical duty to plan for its recovery.  The proposal is to make structures of two cutting discs about 2 metres in diameter separated at 12 metres which can roll along the length of the film to cut it into 12 metre wide strips.  The ends of the cut can be gripped with a vacuum plate, lifted to the surface and wound round a drum.  The area of the long side of a 3 km length sheet of clean film is only 0.6 square metres.  Over a period of years it will probably have acquired biological growths, some of which can be removed by pulling it between contra-rotating brushes.  It is desirable that growth thickness can be reduced to the level at which film can be packed into 2.2 metre diameter for movement in a sea container.  For a film length of 3 kilometres this means a thickness of film plus growth of 1.25 mm.   The extruded rubber trough cases would be wound on the drum of a pipe-laying vessel.

Comments on the feasibility of this proposal, however critical, would be welcome.

Conclusions.

There is a wide range of estimates for the rates of methane release from Arctic seabeds but the higher ones are alarming enough for all defensive measures to be carefully examined.

Initial design work for the manufacture and deployment of kilometre-sized areas of plastic film to capture methane suggests that that this may be possible for a range of emission rates provided that the areas of the sea bed are clear of obstructions. This conclusion should be checked with people from the plastic and rubber industries.

Deployment and recovery will require pipe-laying vessels from the oil industry , such as the Stena Apache, and specialised seabed crawlers which have been designed for wave and tidal-stream installation.

Unless methane emission rates are even higher than suggested it will not be economical to recover methane for use on land and so flaring off at sea is more likely.  However there may be enough energy to drive ice-cutting equipment to keep the water round a flare stack clear of drifting ice in winter.

The extrusion tool for a 1500 metre width will require about 200 tonnes of very flat stainless steel sheet. The critical problem is maintaining an accurate gap in the extrusion tool.  This can be done with differential temperature control of opposite surfaces of a stack of interdigital plates with central cooling channels. 

The separation of halves of a film package can be done by the force generated from angled saw-tooth ridges on the underside when the package is dragged over the sea bed.  This allows very wide film coverage from an easily transported package and leaves tracks for methane flow.

If the underside of the film has a pipe connection to the atmosphere the pressure from water above it will clamp it firmly to the sea bed.

Work on long-term biological testing of candidate film materials should begin as soon as possible.

It is necessary to have credible techniques to recover all materials from the sea bed.  The proposed method must be critically checked by experienced offshore engineers.

A 4.5 square kilometre area of 200 micron sheet will need about 930 tonnes or 25 railway trucks of plastic but this is small compared with world production.  Energy consumption in the present plastics industry is about 10 MJ a kilogram compared with 2.25 MJ for the latent heat of steam.  If the film extrusion velocity is 10 mm a second we will need 3.5 days for one pack and a power of 35 MW.  Heat pump technology could give a very large reduction in energy consumption and must be carefully investigated.

We may have to avoid deployment in water depths less than the deepest pressure ridges. The leading ice authority, Peter Wadhams, says that these can reach down to 34 metres below the surface.

Actions

Resolve the three-order of magnitude dispute about methane release rates and investigate sea bed methane release rates and their variability in space and time.

Check design assumptions with the plastic film and rubber extrusion industry. 

Choose the best candidate film materials with density just greater than cold sea water (1028.4 kg/m3) and establish stress capability in working conditions.  A large strain length is more important than tensile strength.

Place specimens of the various film types in suitable test site in northern Norway and observe biological results especially recolonization rates.  The earlier this begins the better.  Albert Kallio has warned about anoxic conditions below the film.  The area of test film must be large enough to replicate this.

Measure tow forces on 5-metre sized blocks and establish the best ridge angle for a range of sea bed conditions from gravel to sand to ooze.

Place blocks of various shapes and densities fitted with accelerometers on the sea bed and measure how many roll or slide.

Carry out a sonar side-scan survey to identify obstructions in suitable areas.  Some, such as bullion cargoes, may be removable.

Collect information on depth and occurrence of pressure ridges in methane release areas.

Pray that the continual underestimation of the potential climate risks by people who are responsible for defending us against them does not continue.

Links

World plastic production

Shakhova PowerPoint presentation link.

Shakhova Semiletov paper


Pipe-laying vessels

Other collected papers

References

Dlugokencky, E. J., L. M. P. Bruhwiler, J. W. C. White, L. K. Emmons, P. C. Novelli, S. A. Montzka, K. A. Masarie, P. M. Lang, A. M. Crotwell, J. B. Miller and L. V. Gatti (2009), Observational constraints on recent increases in the atmospheric CH4 burden, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L18803, 10.1029/2009GL039780.
Frankenberg, C., I. Aben, P. Bergamaschi, E. J. Dlugokencky, R. van Hees, S. Houweling, P. van der Meer, R. Snel P. Dol (2011), Global column-averaged methane mixing ratios from 2003 to 2009 as derived from SCIAMACHY: Trends and variability, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 116(D04302), 1-12, 10.1029/2010JD014849.
Montzka, S. A., E. J. Dlugokencky and J. H. Butler (2011), Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change, NATURE, 476, 43-50, 10.1038/nature10322.